Samrock's 2013 TDK 2.0 RL Chase

[samrock67]

5/24/13

Here is today's card
NYM -1.5 2u
Bos -1.5 2u
CWS -1.5 1u
Ari -1.5 1u
Tex -1.5 1u
CWS -1.5 1u
Was -1.5 1u
Was -1.5 1u

Spreadsheet for this system can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3

[ColdBeerHere]

Sam, just curious....When you post plays as "unofficial" - I know it means some plays can still be added, but on the other hand can some plays ever be subtracted from what you had posted ?

[samrock67]

Sam, just curious....When you post plays as "unofficial" - I know it means some plays can still be added, but on the other hand can some plays ever be subtracted from what you had posted ?

Nope. Everything I list is an official play, and the only thing unofficial about the card is the possibility of additional plays.

[samrock67]

Lines added for CWS, Was(x2)

[ColdBeerHere]

sam, so that's a second play of a unit on the CWS ?

[samrock67]

sam, so that's a second play of a unit on the CWS ?

Correct. I used to put in the series number but I've been lazy. Plus, you can always cross-check with the spreadsheet for mistakes.

[tjohnstone3]

Wow, Mets at +310 at 5dimes. That would be a sick one to hit!

[samrock67]

Indeed it would. Sometimes it's lines like that that contribute to 10+ unit profit on a single series.

I would, however, like to use this to bring up a point:

If anyone following this system feels more comfortable picking a dog to win straight up(ML) for + money instead of taking the -1.5 RL, I leave that up to your discretion. It's not necessarily a bad play- most people will think that it's less risky to pick an underdog to win straight up instead of picking them to win by 2, and in theory, you would be right. However, statistically, you are wrong...based on over 20,000 MLB games recorded from 1989-2000(i know that means this data is outdated, but its a large sample size):

When a team is a home favorite:
Win by 2 or more: 39.1%
Win by 1: 18.4%
Lose by 1: 11%
Lose by 2 or more: 31.5%

When a team is a road favorite
Win by 2 or more: 43.6%
Win by 1: 11.6%
Lose by 1: 16.4%
Lose by 2 or more: 28.5%

So, as you can see, on average, underdogs have about a 43.7% chance of winning, and a 30% chance of winning by 2 or more. Oh, and when they do win, they win by 2 twice as often as they win by 1.

Again, just some food for thought. This system is experimental and you can play it how you wish. I personally take the ML from time to time when the odds are good enough for me(like today, I took the Mets at +150 on the ML). The numbers i put here and in my spreadsheet will always reflect the -1.5 RL, though.

Best of luck today everyone!

[ColdBeerHere]

well I made a mistake and made two bets on boston for 2 units each...Let's go Boston !!!

[samrock67]

Card is official.

I will not be able to post tomorrow's plays. TDK usually is kind enough to post them, but if he does not, please use post 141 and/or the spreadsheet in that post for help with tomorrow's plays.

Good luck to everyone this weekend!

[TheDarkKnight01]

Plays for 5/25/13

NYM -1.5 2u
CWS -1.5 2u
CWS -1.5 2u
MIL -1.5 1u
SF -1.5 1u
TB -1.5 1u
TOR -1.5 1u

Possible adds tomorrow, be sure to check back in. I'll post again when that happens.

[TheDarkKnight01]

well I made a mistake and made two bets on boston for 2 units each...Let's go Boston !!!

good mistake man! I had a ton riding on them today, glad they made it stress free and we all cashed.

[ColdBeerHere]

It's nice for a change to hop onto a system, and not have it crash...Not only did it not crash but I'm up mega units in my first three days.

[TheDarkKnight01]

Plays for 5/25/13 FINAL

TEX added. Card is now final. good luck!


NYM -1.5 2u
CWS -1.5 2u
CWS -1.5 2u
MIL -1.5 1u
SF -1.5 1u
TB -1.5 1u
TOR -1.5 1u
TEX -1.5 1u

[samrock67]

5/25/13
TDK Record: 161-3, +55.71u
TDK RL Record: 153-11, +202.97u
Thread Record: 65-5, +59.00u

5/24 RECAP
NYM -1.5 2u POSTPONED
Bos -1.5 2u WINNER +2.58u
CWS -1.5 1u LOSS
Ari -1.5 1u WINNER +1.54u
Tex -1.5 1u WINNER +1.50u
CWS -1.5 1u LOSS
Was -1.5 1u WINNER +1.29u
Was -1.5 1u WINNER +1.29u

[samrock67]

5/26/13
TDK Record: 161-3, +55.71u(pending update)
TDK RL Record: 154-11, +204.76u
Thread Record: 66-5, +60.79u

5/25/13 RECAP
NYM -1.5 2u LOSS
CWS -1.5 2u LOSS
CWS -1.5 2u LOSS
MIL -1.5 1u LOSS
SF -1.5 1u LOSS
TB -1.5 1u LOSS
TOR -1.5 1u LOSS
TEX -1.5 1u WINNER +1.79u

[samrock67]

5/26/13

Here is today's card
NYM -1.5 4u**
CWS -1.5 4u
CWS -1.5 4u
Mil -1.5 2u
SF -1.5 2u
TB -1.5 2u
Tor -1.5 2u
LAA -1.5 1u
TB -1.5 1u
Sea -1.5 1u

**The Mets game is an interesting situation. I was working yesterday so I couldn't even check if you could have bet on the postponed game from Friday night, but I doubt as much. So I consider yesterday's full game as Game 2 of this series, not that it mattered anyway.

Spreadsheet for this system can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3

[samrock67]

Card is now final, BOL today everyone

[ColdBeerHere]

Wow....large card today, and I made it even larger......I have a new tablet, and for some reason when I go to view wagers it won't show all my wagers on one page.....So I doubled two bets on accident.....

I got two units risked on Seattle....

But I also double bet the White Sox, and now have 16 units risked on them.

GOOOOOOOOOOO WHITE SOX !!!!!!!!!

[samrock67]

Yeah, really hoping the Sox put a beating on the fish today and take care of business. The pitching matchup for a potential double Game 4 is favorable, as the Cubbies roll into town tomorrow. I would even say that chasing this series for 5 games is worth it because of the pitching matchup on Tueday(Sale vs Jackson), but how bout we take care of business today and not even worry about it...

[samrock67]

Thanks White Sox!!!

4 series already cleared today with the Angels 6 outs away, couple more pending...love seeing all these series come off the board

[ColdBeerHere]

Very Nice ! My mistakes paid off this week....Today I am up 21 units with the Mets pending, and for the week I am up 42 units....Almost doubled my BR....Been a long time since I had a week like that.

[samrock67]

Ugh...penetrate the Mets...took em on the ML today and they were looking strong until 2 min ago...

I'm also up somewhere between 60-80 units over the last 2 weeks. After what was a slow start to May, it looks like we may finish real strong

[ColdBeerHere]

Yaaaaaaa Mets !!!!! WOW, I had them on the RL (+245)...Puts me at 31 units on the day, and 52 for the week !!! Unreal !

[samrock67]

Oh the irony. A lifelong diehard mets fan here...the one guy who everyone in NY has been trashing all season long(Ike Davis) gets the game winning hit...missed out on that massive RL but happy to get the win and happy for those who were brave enough to take it...

what a day and what a week...lets finish May with a bang, eh,

[dogs1972]

Nice day rock

[acehole]

thanks for the work your doing here...samrock tdk

[samrock67]

5/27/13
TDK Record: 168-4, +17.29u
TDK RL Record: 161-11, +224.55u
Thread Record: 73-5, +80.58u

5/26/13 RECAP
NYM -1.5 4u WINNER +7u
CWS -1.5 4u WINNER +1.4u
CWS -1.5 4u WINNER +1.4u
Mil -1.5 2u LOSS
SF -1.5 2u WINNER +1.72u
TB -1.5 2u WINNER +2.7u
Tor -1.5 2u LOSS
LAA -1.5 1u WINNER +1.41u
TB -1.5 1u WINNER +1.85u
Sea -1.5 1u LOSS

[samrock67]

5/27/13

Here is today's card
Mil -1.5 4u(2:10pm EST start)
Tor -1.5 4u
KC -1.5 4u(2:10pm EST start)
Sea -1.5 2u(4:10pm EST start)
CWS -1.5 1u
SF -1.5 1u(4:05pm EST start)

Spreadsheet for this system can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3

[jonohull]

Nice day yesterday. Let's keep it going!

[samrock67]

CWS, SF lines added card is final

BOL today gentlemen

Happy Memorial day and many thanks to all of the troops who have sacrificed their lives and limbs protecting our country

[ColdBeerHere]

Oh the irony. A lifelong diehard mets fan here...the one guy who everyone in NY has been trashing all season long(Ike Davis) gets the game winning hit...missed out on that massive RL but happy to get the win and happy for those who were brave enough to take it...

what a day and what a week...lets finish May with a bang, eh,

I've pretty much have been disconnected from what's going on with sports lately due to work, etc....So I have not been keeping up with what players/teams are doing good and bad...Makes playing systems to a "T" much easier...I didn't think twice about laying that Mets bet....

[samrock67]

I've pretty much have been disconnected from what's going on with sports lately due to work, etc....So I have not been keeping up with what players/teams are doing good and bad...Makes playing systems to a "T" much easier...I didn't think twice about laying that Mets bet....

That's the way to do it...don't let emotion or personal analytics get in the way of chase systems...

In other news, we are only 10 units behind April's pace(+100 units after 3 weeks vs +90 in May)

A sweep of today's 4u games would bring in 10+ units easily and keep us on pace for 120+ units for the month...knock on wood

[dalogester]

not gonna lie, if i were you guys i would jump off this bandwagon right now while its up 80 units. While its very possible this system will remain above 80 units the rest of the year, I think it would be wise to take the 80 units and spectate the rest of season.
Regardless of what you guys do, I wish you the best of luck!

[cooler54]

not gonna lie, if i were you guys i would jump off this bandwagon right now while its up 80 units. While its very possible this system will remain above 80 units the rest of the year, I think it would be wise to take the 80 units and spectate the rest of season.
Regardless of what you guys do, I wish you the best of luck!

Not gonna lie, would love to hear your reasoning on this?