Samrock's 2013 TDK 2.0 RL Chase

[samrock67]

6/16/13
TDK RL 1.0 Record: 239-26, +194.4u
1.0 Record since tracking began: 151-120, +50.43u

6/16/13 RECAP

CWS -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
Atl -1.5 8u WINNER +4.2u
Bos -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
Phi -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
Tex -1.5 8u(x3) LOSS -45u
Cin -1.5 4u WINNER +1.16u
NYM -1.5 4u LOSS
Cle -1.5 4u WINNER +5.16u
Bos -1.5 2u LOSS
CWS -1.5 2u LOSS
Oak -1.5 2u WINNER +2.4u
CWS -1.5 1u LOSS
Oak -1.5 1u WINNER +1.7u
Cle -1.5 1u WINNER +2.04u

[samrock67]

6/17/13

For anyone who wants to ride out the open chases:

NYM -1.5 8u
CWS -1.5 4u
CWS -1.5 2u

[samrock67]

For those of you who want action, I'm going to give it another go with 2.0 to try and rebuild my roll. I'm going small, using a 1/2-1-2-4 unit strategy to minimize losses to 7.5 units.

I'm mainly using RPI as a filter, but also looking at recent history, pitching matchups, run differential. I'll try to do a small write-up when a series begins.

Play these at your own risk

RL 2.0 Plays
Stl -1.5 1u
Atl -1.5 1u
Ari -1.5 1u
KC -1.5 1u
Cin -1.5 1u

The Cards, Braves, and D-backs are no-brainers- they face the Cubs, Mets, and Marlins, respectively; the Cards have been in the #1 spot in run differential all season, and the Braves sit at number 4. I like the Royals, who will be favorites in Cleveland- and bear in mind that Road Favorites have the highest RL percentage overall. KC has been clicking on all cylinders, with quality pitching and a bevy of 2-run wins already in June(9). They're coming off a 4-game series in Tampa where they took 3/4, all by 2+ runs. I also like the Reds at home against the Pirates. The pitching matchups are favorable and I think Cincy can take at least 1 of 4 by 2. Cincy has also been at the top of the league in runs scored all season long.

Best of luck gentlemen.

Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3
Blog: http://mlbchasing.blogspot.com/

[Want2Win]

Good job!

[samrock67]

6/18/13
RL 2.0 Record: 2-0, +2.85u

6/17/13 RECAP

RL 2.0 Plays
Stl -1.5 1u WINNER +1.1u
Atl -1.5 1u LOSS
Ari -1.5 1u LOSS
KC -1.5 1u LOSS
Cin -1.5 1u WINNER +1.75u

[samrock67]

6/18/13

RL 2.0 Plays
Atl -1.5 2u 1:10pm EST Start**
Ari -1.5 2u
KC -1.5 2u
Stl -1.5 1u*
Cin -1.5 1u

Write-up: I'm gonna double-dip on the Cards and Reds. The Cards still have 3 more with the Cubbies before Texas rolls into town, I think they can take 1 of those 3 by 2, but if you want, the * indicates that you can play this as a 5-game series if you want to get Shelby Miller into the series for Game 5. The Reds have 3 more with the Bucs before heading out to Arizona, where the Game 4 starter will be Cueto, who has great career numbers against the D-backs. Still think the Reds can take another from Pit before that.

* you can play this is a 5-game series if you want to get Shelby Miller for Game 5

**NOTE: Game 3 of Atl, if necessary, will be the 2nd game of the doubleheader at 7:10pm EST

Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3
Blog: http://mlbchasing.blogspot.com/

[samrock67]

Reminder that tonight's NYM-Atl game is Game 3 for Atl so

Atl -1.5 4u

[Yazworm91]

I finished up an 8u and 4u play on Boston in the first game. Accidentally played 12u on the 2nd game as well and decided to let it ride instead of buying out with just the juice. Got revenge on the Texas loss with that walk off 2 run homer. Made back 2/3 woot woot

[samrock67]

How is it that the mets can lose 5/6 to the Marlins but take like 6/7 from the cardinals and braves. Makes no sense.

[samrock67]

6/19/13
RL 2.0 Record: 2-0, +2.85u

6/18/13 RECAP

RL 2.0 Plays
Atl -1.5 2u LOSS
Atl -1.5 4u LOSS
Ari -1.5 2u LOSS
KC -1.5 2u LOSS
Stl -1.5 1u LOSS
Cin -1.5 1u LOSS

[samrock67]

Alright, from here on out, since we've lost a system, I'm going to replace it with another system...actually, 2 systems- the 2 that TDK mentioned in his farewell.

Cisco's 5-run chase
- Basically, after a team wins by 5 or more, wait 2 games and then begin a 4-game fade of that team
- Houston and Miami are no-plays
Spreadsheet found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...1cWpGRHc#gid=3

B2W's RPI chase
- a 4 game chase when the home team has an RPI 43 points or more better than the visiting team or when the visiting team has an RPI 51 points or more better than the home team
Thread found here: covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101615625&pa ge=16
Automated Excel file found here: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5dydT9Oe6Jbcm5zdjBpcURHT1k

Let it be known that I just want to use this thread to track the other systems. We'll see in a month whether either of them is worth jumping on. As in TDK's system, I am just going to take whichever team generates Game 1 of a series and either tail(B2W, RL 2.0) or fade(Cisco) them on the -1.5 RL for 4 games.

TAIL THESE AT YOUR OWN RISK

[samrock67]

6/19/13

RL 2.0 Plays
Atl -1.5 8u
Ari -1.5 4u
KC -1.5 4u
Stl -1.5 2u
Cin -1.5 2u

Cisco 5-run
Oakland fade: Tex -1.5 1u
Miami fade: Ari -1.5 1u

B2W RPI
no games

Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=9
Blog: http://mlbchasing.blogspot.com/

[michst715]

Had a question about the Cisco picks you posted on your blog. You have listed 2 picks, Oakland and Miami fades. I understand this part of the picks. However, are you taking the liberty of selecting which Cisco picks to play based on your opinions/knowledge? The Miami fade is part of the under .470 system, but he also has a Milwaukee fade listed today as well. Just wondering why that pick wasn't put on the blog? Thanks for the work you've done so far.

[samrock67]

Had a question about the Cisco picks you posted on your blog. You have listed 2 picks, Oakland and Miami fades. I understand this part of the picks. However, are you taking the liberty of selecting which Cisco picks to play based on your opinions/knowledge? The Miami fade is part of the under .470 system, but he also has a Milwaukee fade listed today as well. Just wondering why that pick wasn't put on the blog? Thanks for the work you've done so far.

The Milwaukee fade translates into betting on Houston- trying to avoid series that begin with plays on Houston or Miami. I probably should add other teams to this list, but we'll see how this plays out. I know Cisco doesn't have a no-play filter for Houston and Miami for the Under .470 system, but I don't see why it wouldn't be appropriate to apply that filter for that system as well.

[michst715]

Fair enough, I'm on the same page as you with that. Thanks for clarifying.

[samrock67]

6/20/13
RL 2.0 Record: 5-0, +10.55u
Cisco 5-run Record: 2-0, +3.45u
B2W RPI Record: 0-0

6/19/13 RECAP

RL 2.0
Atl -1.5 8u WINNER +3u
Ari -1.5 4u WINNER +3u
KC -1.5 4u LOSS
Stl -1.5 2u WINNER +1.7u
Cin -1.5 2u LOSS

Cisco 5-Run
Oakland fade: Tex -1.5 1u WINNER +1.95u
Miami fade: Ari -1.5 1u WINNER +1.5u

[samrock67]

6/20/13

RL 2.0 Plays
Cin -1.5 4u

Super tough choices looking ahead to this weekend- a lot of the teams at the top of the 2+ run win leaderboard are playing each other this weekend- Bos/Det, NYY/TB, Stl/Tex; very hard to pull the trigger on any of those series, as they can be played from either or both sides. Not even the Braves in Milwaukee works for me- Hudson and Maholm have atrocious career numbers in Miller Park. I think I'm just going to wait out the weekend before deciding on some more 2.0 games.

Cisco 5-run
LAA fade: Sea -1.5 1u

B2W RPI
SF -1.5 1u

TDK 1.1
SF -1.5 1u
NYY -1.5 1u

Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=9
Blog: http://mlbchasing.blogspot.com/

[samrock67]

Looks like TDK is back and posting in limited capacity, focusing on his Series Chase system. you can follow on his blog:

http://thedarkknight01.tumblr.com/

His plays will be listed as "TDK 1.1"

Please visit his blog and read the rules if you plan on following them on the ML.

[samrock67]

I'm toying around with an idea, and just wanted to throw it out there to see what holes there could be/are in the system...

We'll call it the "rollover effect."

Basically, we take the 5 teams in the league who most consistently win games by 2 runs(as determined by a combination of total wins and percentage of those wins that were won by 2 or more) and chase them at the same time. This is what Day 1 would look like:

Stl -1.5 1u
Det -1.5 1u
Bos -1.5 1u
TB -1.5 1u
Atl -1.5 1u

Let's call 1u = $10. So, let's say Stl, Det, and Bos all cover, but TB and Atl do not. Using the "rollover effect", we start 3 new series with Stl, Det, and Bos(which we would have done anyway), and "rollover" the B bets from TB and Atl and spread them over the 5 series. Night 2 would then look like this- instead of betting $20 each(2u) on TB and Atl, you spread that $40 out over the 5 games you will be playing:

Stl -1.5 $18(1.8u)
Det -1.5 $18(1.8u)
Bos -1.5 $18(1.8u)
TB -1.5 $8(.8u)
Atl -1.5 $8(.8u)

I'm curious if this is risk-mitigating at all or if this is just a silly idea. Someone enlighten me.

[samrock67]

6/21/13
RL 2.0 Record: 5-0, +10.55u
Cisco 5-run Record: 2-0, +3.45u
B2W RPI Record: 0-0

6/20/13 RECAP

RL 2.0 Plays
Cin -1.5 4u LOSS

Cisco 5-run
LAA fade: Sea -1.5 1u LOSS

B2W RPI
SF -1.5 1u LOSS

TDK 1.1
SF -1.5 1u LOSS
NYY -1.5 1u LOSS

[samrock67]

Ok, I'm going to take RL 2.0 into a bit of a different direction. Instead of picking spots, I'm basically going to turn it into a continuous tail of the 5 teams that are most consistent at winning by 2 or more. I will use 2 things to judge this- overall wins, and percentage of those wins won by 2 or more.

As for the rollover concept, I think there's something there, but I'm just not sure how to incorporate it. It's similar to the idea of taking a Game 4 bet and just adding it to a Game 1 bet of another series to give the loss that you are chasing another chance to win by transferring it to a different series. I know this can add up if you wait until Game 4 to transfer, which is why I'm curious if you were always chasing 5 teams simultaneously, if spreading your bets out over the 5 games would mitigate risk at all long-term. I'll probably track it on a spreadsheet and see if it ends up making any sense.

All that being said, the 5 best 2-run win teams right now are:

Cardinals: 39/47(82.98%)
Rays: 31/38(81.58%)
Tigers: 32/40(80%)
Red Sox: 34/44(77.27%)
Braves: 32/43(74.42%)

So, we will begin a 4-game chase with each of these teams today. Every day, I will update the percentages(I have a running list of 2-run win % for all teams over .500) and monitor the movement of the list. Let's say Stl, Det, and Bos won by 2 tonight- we would re-boot again with them tomorrow and start a new 4 game chase. I know this sounds incredibly risky and aggressive, but just to make a point- if you had done this with the Cardinals, you would only have 1 loss on the season- the longest stretch of games the Cardinals have gone without a 2-run win is 4 games, and it's only happened once. I think by sticking to the teams that most consistently win by 2, you minimize your losses. As always, TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK

[samrock67]

6/21/13

RL 2.0 Plays
Cin -1.5 8u
KC -1.5 8u
Stl -1.5 1u
TB -1.5 1u
Det -1.5 1u
Bos -1.5 1u
Atl -1.5 1u


Cisco 5-run
LAA fade: Sea -1.5 2u
Hou fade: ChC -1.5 1u
Mil fade: Atl -1.5 1u
NYM fade: Phi -1.5 1u

B2W RPI
SF -1.5 2u
Pit and KC are very close, but are just short of fulfilling the RPI filter

TDK 1.1
SF -1.5 2u
NYY -1.5 2u
Phi -1.5 1u
LAA -1.5 1u

Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3
Blog: http://mlbchasing.blogspot.com/

[brooks85]

6/21/13
\

Cisco 5-run
LAA fade: Sea -1.5 2u
Hou fade: ChC -1.5 1u
Mil fade: Atl -1.5 1u
NYM fade: Phi -1.5 1u



TDK 1.1
SF -1.5 2u
NYY -1.5 2u

Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3
Blog: http://mlbchasing.blogspot.com/

so is playing the RL on favorites and RRL on dogs just something you're doing as an idea to see what happens?

[samrock67]

so is playing the RL on favorites and RRL on dogs just something you're doing as an idea to see what happens?

Well, it's something that I've been doing since the beginning of the year for TDK's chase system(s), which finished 242-27, +190 units after 2 months. I'm going to be trying it out with Cisco and B2W's chase systems as well. The RL 2.0 is my own experiment of continuously tailing the 5 "best" teams in the league in terms of 2-run wins.

Most of this is largely experimental...the picks are there for anyone who wants to use them. I haven't made any claims about the efficacy of this strategy as it has not been backtested. I know that there has to be some kind of strategy for taking advantage of the RL and RRL, and when I have the time to do some intense statistical analysis I will find it, but for now this is what I'm going with.

Best of luck

[samrock67]

Game 1s added for TDK 1.1

[samrock67]

I will not be able to post the plays tomorrow. Please refer to post #442 for tomorrow's games.

Keep in mind that if any of the 2.0 games cover tonight, simply place another Game 1 bet on that team tomorrow. I have added a tab in my spreadsheet so you can see the 2-run win percentages for all teams over .500. I will update this every day.

You can use my blog for links to Cisco's spreadsheet and TDK's blog or find it above; any Game 1's will be found there

BOL this weekend to all tailing

[dogs1972]

It's remarkable how bad these 2.0 picks are. It attracts losses. Between the first 2.0 and the second 2.0 I think 4-5 + series losses out of 20 picks? It's truly amazing.

[samrock67]

It's remarkable how bad these 2.0 picks are. It attracts losses. Between the first 2.0 and the second 2.0 I think 4-5 + series losses out of 20 picks? It's truly amazing.

LOL...

first of all, small sample size.

second of all, no one's telling you to tail them.

[samrock67]

6/21/13 RECAP

RL 2.0 Plays
Cin -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
KC -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
Stl -1.5 1u LOSS
TB -1.5 1u LOSS
Det -1.5 1u LOSS
Bos -1.5 1u WINNER +1.85u
Atl -1.5 1u LOSS


Cisco 5-run
LAA fade: Pit -1.5 2u WINNER +3.7u
Hou fade: ChC -1.5 1u WINNER
Mil fade: Atl -1.5 1u LOSS
NYM fade: Phi -1.5 1u LOSS

B2W RPI
SF -1.5 2u LOSS

TDK 1.1
SF -1.5 2u LOSS
NYY -1.5 2u WINNER +2.5u
Phi -1.5 1u LOSS
LAA -1.5 1u LOSS

[samrock67]

6/22/13

TDK 1.1 Record: 1-0, +2.5u
RL 2.0 Record: 6-2, -17.6u
Cisco 5-run Record: 4-0, +8.29u
B2W RPI Record: 0-0


6/22/13

Here was today's card:

TDK 1.1
SF -1.5 4u
Phi -1.5 2u
LAA -1.5 2u

RL 2.0
Stl -1.5 2u
Det -1.5 2u
TB -1.5 2u
Atl -1.5 2u
Bos -1.5 1u

Cisco 5-run
Mil fade: Atl -1.5 2u
NYM fade: Phi -1.5 2u
LAD fade: SD -1.5 1u
Tex fade: Stl -1.5 1u
Tor fade: Bal -1.5 1u

B2W RPI
SF -1.5 4u

[samrock67]

6/23/13

TDK 1.1 Record: 1-0, +2.5u
RL 2.0 Record: 7-2, -16.2u
Cisco 5-run Record: 4-0, +8.29u
B2W RPI Record: 0-0

6/22/13 RECAP

TDK 1.1
SF -1.5 4u LOSS
Phi -1.5 2u LOSS
LAA -1.5 2u LOSS

RL 2.0

Stl -1.5 2u LOSS
Det -1.5 2u WINNER +1.4u
TB -1.5 2u LOSS
Atl -1.5 2u LOSS
Bos -1.5 1u LOSS

Cisco 5-run
Mil fade: Atl -1.5 2u LOSS
NYM fade: Phi -1.5 2u LOSS
LAD fade: SD -1.5 1u LOSS
Tex fade: Stl -1.5 1u LOSS
Tor fade: Bal -1.5 1u LOSS

B2W RPI

SF -1.5 4u LOSS

[samrock67]

6/23/13

TDK 1.1
SF -1.5 8u
Phi -1.5 4u
LAA -1.5 4u

RL 2.0
Stl -1.5 4u
TB -1.5 4u
Atl -1.5 4u
Bos -1.5 2u
Det -1.5 1

Cisco 5-run
Mil fade: Atl -1.5 4u
NYM fade: Phi -1.5 4u
Tex fade: Stl -1.5 2u
Tor fade: Bal -1.5 2u
TB fade: NYY -1.5 1u

B2W RPI
SF -1.5 8u

Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=1
Blog: http://mlbchasing.blogspot.com/

[samrock67]

6/24/13

TDK 1.1 Record: 1-1, -12.5u
RL 2.0 Record: 10-2, -9.68u
Cisco 5-run Record: 5-0, +10.29u
B2W RPI Record: 0-1, -15u

6/23/13 RECAP

TDK 1.1
SF -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
Phi -1.5 4u LOSS
LAA -1.5 4u LOSS

RL 2.0
Stl -1.5 4u LOSS
TB -1.5 4u WINNER +3.32u
Atl -1.5 4u WINNER +2u
Bos -1.5 2u LOSS
Det -1.5 1u WINNER +1.2u

Cisco 5-run
Mil fade: Atl -1.5 4u WINNER +2u
NYM fade: Phi -1.5 4u LOSS
Tex fade: Stl -1.5 2u LOSS
Tor fade: Bal -1.5 2u LOSS
TB fade: NYY -1.5 1u LOSS

B2W RPI
SF -1.5 8u LOSS -15u

[samrock67]

6/24/13

TDK 1.1
Phi -1.5 8u

RL 2.0
TB -1.5 1u

Hmm...so, TB is supposed to be a scheduled series since they sit at #2 right now in terms of 2-run teams. However, they welcome the red-hot Jays into town for 3 games, followed by the Tigers(and Game 4 would be against Scherzer). I don't like this series AT ALL so for me it's going to be a no-play, but I'm going to list the series regardless. The Orioles sit at #6 on the list, a mere 1.19% shy of being a top 5 team behind the Braves. They host the Indians for 3 before the Yankees come into town. This wouldn't be an official play regardless, but I leave it up to you folks- if you want to play it, I don't think it's a bad play.

Cisco 5-run
TB fade: Tor -1.5 2u
Bal fade: Cle -1.5 1u

Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3
Blog: http://mlbchasing.blogspot.com/

[samrock67]

6/25/13

TDK 1.1 Record: 1-2, -27.5u
RL 2.0 Record: 11-2, -8.18u
Cisco 5-run Record: 7-0, +15.08u
B2W RPI Record: 0-1, -15u

6/24/13 RECAP

TDK 1.1
Phi -1.5 8u LOSS -15u

RL 2.0
TB -1.5 1u WINNER +1.5u

Cisco 5-run
TB fade: Tor -1.5 4u WINNER +3u
Bal fade: Cle -1.5 1u WINNER +1.79u