Congrats everybody!! Our first unit of the season in the piggy bank!! I also play 0.5 unit on this 5-game chase.
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So now that the over has hit on the game(s), the chase is over or do we continue on with tomorrow?Comment -
The chase is over for those two teams.Comment -
Is there a statistical reason why we just can't loop this throughout the season? It seems like once our 5 game chase ends we could just pick it up and go at it again.
If we assume over/unders are approximately 50/50 that means 3% of the time we will have a 5 game chase not "get there". So 97% of the time we +30 and 3% of the time we likely -40?
So long as people can resist the urge to continue the chase into 6-7-8 games, I see no reason why we can't just loop this. Thoughts?Comment -
^ backtesting is your friend. I don't have the ability to do this quickly but I'm sure someone else does.Comment -
TDK are you playin the over chase with listed pitchers must start o can any pitchr start?Comment -
Children, will always be followers.Comment -
Play EVERY team in a 6 game chase, for their 1st 6 games of the season (until you win). You would have lost once in FOREVER !!Comment -
laca, you have a point. In theory it works however it will need to be backtested. Unfortunately, I do not have the time to do so at the moment but I'm definitely interested in adding a O/U chase for next year. I tried backtesting something but results were in the negative and will hopefully be able to come up with one to add next year.
knugen, all posted plays will be ACTION.
snark, 6 game chases are too much for me, the highest I will go is 5 with low juice and 4 with heavy juice. Of course you will win more but the risk will be towards the 80 unit mark, 50 units risked is enough for me. Good luck.Comment -
Plays for 4/1/2013
Here are the plays for 4/1/2013 (Opening Day!!!):
Reminder: Bet ACTION.
Over Chase:
MIA/WAS Over 7 -115 2u (115/100 for me)
SD/NYM Over 7.5 -105 2u (105/100)
CHC/PIT Over 7 -110 2u (110/100)
COL/MIL Over 8 -120 2u (120/100)
SF/LAD Over 6 -120 2u (120/100)
PHI/ATL Over 7 -105 2u (105/100)
STL/AZ Over 8.5 -115 2u (115/100)
BOS/NYY Over 8 -105 2u (105/100)
KC/CWS Over 7 -110 2u (110/100)
DET/MIN Over 7 -110 2u (110/100)
SEA/OAK Over 6.5 -110 2u (110/100)
LAA/CIN Over 7.5 -105 2u (105/100)
Under Chase (for tracking purposes only):
MIA/WAS Under 7 -105 2u
SD/NYM Under 7.5 -115 2u
CHC/PIT Under 7 -110 2u
COL/MIL Under 8 Even 2u
SF/LAD Under 6 Even 2u
PHI/ATL Under 7 -115 2u
STL/AZ Under 8.5 -105 2u
BOS/NYY Under 8 -115 2u
KC/CWS Under 7 -110 2u
DET/MIN Under 7 -110 2u
SEA/OAK Under 6.5 -110 2u
LAA/CIN Under 7.5 -115 2u
Good luck!Comment -
I don't play the dumbass chases, I just figured that you would be playing the every team over, as your original thought. But I will say that you sure have these fools sucked in.Comment -
here are the series losses:
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?...ubmit=S+D+Q+L+!
and here are the total number of plays:
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?...ubmit=S+D+Q+L+!
which is very close to all MLB plays (over 2.200 games)
A 5 game chase for average odds of -110 is -39,84 units, so for let say 60 losses per year, you are DONE, no good
Also another interesting thing is that if you are left with one team to chase for the 5th game OVER, do not do it! A 4 game chase loss is -18.45 units which is good enough I think. STOP it there and you have a profit.
What I will consider , is letting a team hit three unders and then jump on it for a small two series chase. I think this might be good, not sure yet.
sorry for cluttering the thread with other issues, but looks very interesting to say the least!Comment -
Question: What's going to be the plan if a push arises? Do we simply forget about that game and continue with the chase with the same stake for the next game?Comment -
Snark, I tried to play nice but you're just being an @$$ now. Please get out and let me do my thing. Anyone know a way I can ignore his posts on here?
1958 thanks for the insight and research.
skyscrapers, that is correct. If a push occurs, it is a no play and we continue with the chase. For example, if it pushes on game 2 of the chase, we will replay game 2 the following game to win the same amount.Comment -
OK folks I tried to warn you on this !! Let's have a profit or loss report at the end of the week. BAD IDEA. Last 2 out of 3 years lost big time on a 4 game chase. Last year won a little. 2011 & 10 lost. You people will learn. Ever heard "if it sounds to good to be true"? you can back test this yourself for years. scoresandodds.com and or covers.com. Don't believe me, check it out for yourselves. Better hurry, going down the wrong path starting tonight. DK is either up to something, stupid, or doesn't know what he's doing, just thinks he does. Be back for your break the bank +30 unit report on Sunday. Good luck for what it's worth. You'll learn. I've been gambling for 30 years, full time for 9.Comment -
One more thing and I'm out of here. I'd love to see the look on you guys faces when a team or 2 or 3 has lost 3 in a row, you're down 7.16 units and for the 4th game you're laying 8.98 to win that ONE unit. up 1 or down 16.14. You'll be crapping bullets. And that's best case scenario, if you've only been laying 10%. Imagine if some of those losses are at 20%. If 3 of the 30 teams (and that's only 10%) don't come through, thank DK because you won 27 units and lost 48.42. And that's in the 1st few days of the season. The equivalent of losing a bunch of straight bets in a row. Do what you intelligent people think is best. Don't matter to me, I just hate to see the blind leading the blind. See you Sunday for the count.Comment -
Snark just hatin cause his old @ss can't move units. Go big or go home old man.
(I'm not playing the over chase btw I just love to see people get riled up at the possibility of people making more profit than them)Comment -
Recap of 4/1/2013:
Recap of 4/1/2013:
Over Chase:
MIA/WAS Over 7 -115 2u (115/100 for me) Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/3/2013
SD/NYM Over 7.5 -105 2u (105/100) Winner +100
CHC/PIT Over 7 -110 2u (110/100) Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/3/2013
COL/MIL Over 8 -120 2u (120/100) Winner +100
SF/LAD Over 6 -120 2u (120/100) Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/2/2013
PHI/ATL Over 7 -105 2u (105/100) Winner +100
STL/AZ Over 8.5 -115 2u (115/100) Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/2/2013
BOS/NYY Over 8 -105 2u (105/100) Winner +100
KC/CWS Over 7 -110 2u (110/100) Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/3/2013
DET/MIN Over 7 -110 2u (110/100) Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/3/2013
SEA/OAK Over 6.5 -110 2u (110/100) Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/2/2013
LAA/CIN Over 7.5 -105 2u (105/100) Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/3/2013
YTD: 10-0 +500 with 16 chases pending and 4 chases beginning on 4/2/2013
Under Chase (for tracking purposes only): MIA/WAS Under 7 -105 2u Winner
SD/NYM Under 7.5 -115 2u Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/3/2013
CHC/PIT Under 7 -110 2u Winner
COL/MIL Under 8 Even 2u Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/2/2013
SF/LAD Under 6 Even 2u Winner
PHI/ATL Under 7 -115 2u Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/3/2013
STL/AZ Under 8.5 -105 2u Winner
BOS/NYY Under 8 -115 2u Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/3/2013
KC/CWS Under 7 -110 2u Winner
DET/MIN Under 7 -110 2u Winner
SEA/OAK Under 6.5 -110 2u Winner
LAA/CIN Under 7.5 -115 2u Winner
YTD: 16-0 with 10 chases pending and 4 chases beginning on 4/2/2013Comment -
Plays for 4/2/2013
Over Chase (I am playing $50/unit in a 5 game chase for each team to get a over):
Game 2 for STL, AZ Over: STL/AZ Over 9 -115 247.25/215
Game 2 for SF, LAD Over: SF/LAD Over 7 +105 220/231
Game 1 for BAL, TB Over: BAL/TB Over 7 Even 2u (100/100)
Game 1 for CLE, TOR Over: CLE/TOR Over 8.5 -115 2u (115/100)
Game 2 for SEA, Oak Over: SEA/OAK Over 7 -120 252/210
Under Chase (For tracking purposes only):
Game 2 for COL, MIL Under: COL/MIL Under 8 Even
Game 1 for BAL, TB Under: BAL/TB Under 7 -120
Game 1 for CLE, TOR Under: CLE/TOR Under 8.5 -105
Game 2 for TEX/HOU Under: TEX/HOU Under 8 -120
Good luck!Comment -
In game 2, I am playing to win the amount of $$$ lost in game one plus 2 units.
For example for the STL/AZ game 2, I lost 115 in game 1 so I'm going to play to win 115 plus an additional 2 units (for me it's $50/unit so it'll be 100) for a total of 215. I hope that helps.Comment -
But remember he is just playing those series to win 2 units, cause he is playing the over for both teams. Normally every series is to win 1 unit.
I just feel i had to add this, cause i know some people think 1 series is for 2units. Correct me if im wrong.
gl todayComment -
not a fan of chase systems but might give this a look later on in the seasonComment -
Sounds interesting. I'll be following through the season.Comment -
Also keep in mind that these series are played at half a unit so 2units=1 unit. Correct me if i wrongComment -
Found this in first post:
But to test this system and since I have a small bankroll I'm playing .5u.I do not need to tell you money management is VITAL, typical rules to managing your $$$ with respect to several chase systems apply and I will bet to win 1 unit ($100). If there is a chase I especially like, I may decide to play the chase to win 2 units. Obviously, everyone is free to do what they wish and we’re all here to make some money so let’s do that with these systems.Comment -
Sorry for all the confusion guys, let me try and clarify.
My regular unit plays are $100/unit however, I'm playing the Over chase for half the amount, at $50/unit. Since I am chasing for each team to hit an over, the plays are for 2 units (For example for the BAL/TB game, I am betting 1 unit at $50 for BAL to get an over plus another unit at $50 for TB to get an over for a total of 2 units for a combined play of $100).
I tried to note that when I post plays but obviously I did not do a very good job at it.Comment -
Dont u think its easier to say that you play the over system fot 0,5 unit, cause thats what you are doing isnt it?Comment -
I missed this post:
Is the point of this so we can follow the teams onto the next series if they don't go over since it's a 5 game chase and no series will last 5 games in a row? That makes sense then.There are no team totals involved whatsoever in this chase.
We are chasing the game total over for 5 games per team.
So we chase TEX game total & HOU game total essentially putting in the bet twice.
But since TDK will play 0.5 unit I think he should have stated 0.5 on TEX & 0.5 on HOU for 1 unit total.
By the way for every single unit won I will give you TDK 1 point at the end of the season.
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I was following the system of chasing all the overs to start the season and got interested in finding a pattern. I looked at a few things from last season.
First, I bet the other side when an O/U went two games. I ended with 490-6, yielding a bit of a profit. However, far too many chases went to four or more games and I don't own an oil well.
Next came three games. That was 253-3. Again, some profit and there were fewer long chases but the end game is close to being the same.
I noticed that most of the failures seemed to come on the under, so I looked at taking the under after three straight overs. The current AL teams went 106-0 with four four-game chases. Not bad if you can stand the drama.
The NL was another matter. While the six-game chase was 124-1, there were nine chases of four, three of five and one failure. The Rockies went on a over tear. You would have gone 230-1 but the excitement is a bit too much for me.
As someone noted here or elsewhere, you might take teams after they have a five or six game streak. OTOH, I have Detroit and Seattle with two loses, but I think they were both unders. Just a little bit of amateur research.Comment
