Multiple MLB Chase Systems (+250 units in 2012)

calebepley93 · 04-02-13, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by RaleighDevil

I was following the system of chasing all the overs to start the season and got interested in finding a pattern. I looked at a few things from last season.

First, I bet the other side when an O/U went two games. I ended with 490-6, yielding a bit of a profit. However, far too many chases went to four or more games and I don't own an oil well.

Next came three games. That was 253-3. Again, some profit and there were fewer long chases but the end game is close to being the same.

I noticed that most of the failures seemed to come on the under, so I looked at taking the under after three straight overs. The current AL teams went 106-0 with four four-game chases. Not bad if you can stand the drama.

The NL was another matter. While the six-game chase was 124-1, there were nine chases of four, three of five and one failure. The Rockies went on a over tear. You would have gone 230-1 but the excitement is a bit too much for me.

As someone noted here or elsewhere, you might take teams after they have a five or six game streak. OTOH, I have Detroit and Seattle with two loses, but I think they were both unders. Just a little bit of amateur research.

Interesting.. were you to end the chases after three games you would've profited around 100 units. Ending after 4 games would've netted you around 170. (this is if my math is correct.)

I was thinking about doing something like this in the NFL/NBA next year. When a team wins or loses three straight ATS I would begin a three game chase fading against their streaks. A series loss would only be around 8-9 units.

I think this works because oddsmakers realize they are overvaluing/undervaluing certain teams and adjust accordingly. Just my theory doe, I might start a separate thread to track this.

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-03-13, 10:44 AM

Recap of 4/2/2013:

Over Chase (I am playing $50/unit in a 5 game chase for each team to get a over):
Game 2 for STL, AZ Over: STL/AZ Over 9 -115 247.25/215 Loser, on to Game 3 on 4/3/13
Game 2 for SF, LAD Over: SF/LAD Over 7 +105 220/231 Loser, on to Game 3 on 4/3/13
Game 1 for BAL, TB Over: BAL/TB Over 7 Even 2u (100/100) Winner
Game 1 for CLE, TOR Over: CLE/TOR Over 8.5 -115 2u (115/100) Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/3/13
Game 2 for SEA, Oak Over: SEA/OAK Over 7 -120 252/210 Winner

YTD: 14-0, +700 with 16 chases pending on 4/3/13
Game 1: 12
Game 2: 2 (12 pending)
Game 3: (4 pending)

Under Chase (For tracking purposes only):
Game 2 for COL, MIL Under: COL/MIL Under 8 Even Loser, on to Game 3 on 4/3/13
Game 1 for BAL, TB Under: BAL/TB Under 7 -120 Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/3/13
Game 1 for CLE, TOR Under: CLE/TOR Under 8.5 -105 Winner
Game 2 for TEX/HOU Under: TEX/HOU Under 8 -120 Winner

YTD: 20-0 with 10 chases pending
Game 1: 18
Game 2: 2 (8 pending)
Game 3: (2 pending)

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-03-13, 11:00 AM

Plays for 4/3/2013

Over Chase (I am playing $50/unit in a 5 game chase for each team to get a over):
Game 3: STL/AZ Over 9 -115 (532/463)
Game 3: SF/LAD Over 7 -105 (462/440)
Game 2: CHC/PIT Over 7 +105 (191/210)
Game 2: MIA/WAS Over 7 -115 (247/215)
Game 2: LAA/CIN Over 7 -120 (246/205)
Game 2: DET/MIN Over 8.5 -110 (231/210)
Game 2: CLE/TOR Over 9 -115 (247/215)
Game 2: KC/CWS Over 7.5 -110 (231/210)

Under Chase (For tracking purposes only)
Game 2: PHI/ATL
Game 2: BAL/TB
Game 2: BOS/NYY
Game 3: COL/MIL
Game 2: SD/NYM

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-03-13, 11:03 AM

Regular Chase Play 4/3/13

Hey Guys,

Sorry for the multiple replies, I wanted to separate out the plays and I've got a regular 4 game chase starting today. Here goes!

4 game chase play:
#1: Oakland -148 (148/100) for Game 1

Lots of plays today, hopefully we can close out these chases...

For what it's worth, I will be at the Dodgers game tonight! Very excited about it, hoping for a high scoring game for the excitement as well as our Over bet! They finally renovated the stadium, so I get to check out the improvements they made. Anywho, just wanted to share my thoughts and plans for the evening.

Good Luck Everyone!!

skyscrapers · 04-03-13, 01:08 PM

Hey TDK, I think the record for the over chase game 1 should read 12 and game 2 should be only 2 (the SEA/OAK game)

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-03-13, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by skyscrapers

Hey TDK, I think the record for the over chase game 1 should read 12 and game 2 should be only 2 (the SEA/OAK game)

Ahh you're right, sorry about that. Record has been updated. I accidentally counted the BAL/TB as a game 2 win when it was really a game 1 win.

Thanks for catching that!

wizcodlifa · 04-03-13, 05:00 PM

just saw this thread. gonna follow. got a low unit size. prolly 10 bucks. just seeing how this works. should i start with A bets. or do all them to start?

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-03-13, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by wizcodlifa

just saw this thread. gonna follow. got a low unit size. prolly 10 bucks. just seeing how this works. should i start with A bets. or do all them to start?

I recommend the regular chases and skip the over/unders. Please read the parts about money management though, it's important. Good luck with whatever you decide.

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-04-13, 01:33 AM

Recap of 4/3/2013

Over Chase (I am playing $50/unit in a 5 game chase for each team to get a over):
Game 3: STL/AZ Over 9 -115 (532/463) Winner
Game 3: SF/LAD Over 7 -105 (462/440) Winner
Game 2: CHC/PIT Over 7 +105 (191/210) Loser, on to game 3 on 4/4/2013
Game 2: MIA/WAS Over 7 -115 (247/215) Loser, on to game 3 on 4/4/2013
Game 2: LAA/CIN Over 7 -120 (246/205) Winner
Game 2: DET/MIN Over 8.5 -110 (231/210) Loser, on to game 3 on 4/4/2013
Game 2: CLE/TOR Over 9 -115 (247/215) Loser, on to game 3 on 4/4/2013
Game 2: KC/CWS Over 7.5 -110 (231/210) Loser (this one hurt...), on to game 3 on 4/4/2013

YTD: 20-0, +1000 with 10 chases pending on 4/4/13
Game 1: 12
Game 2: 4
Game 3: 4 (10 pending)

Under Chase (For tracking purposes only)
Game 2: PHI/ATL Loser, on to game 3 on 4/4/2013
Game 2: BAL/TB Loser, on to game 3 on 4/4/2013
Game 2: BOS/NYY Loser, on to game 3 on 4/4/2013
Game 3: COL/MIL Loser, on to game 4 on 4/4/2013
Game 2: SD/NYM Loser, on to game 3 on 4/4/2013

YTD: 20-0 with 10 chases pending
Game 1: 18
Game 2: 2
Game 3: (8 pending)
Game 4: (2 pending)

4 game chase play:
#1: Oakland -148 (148/100) for Game 1 Winner

YTD: 1-0 +100

808bases · 04-04-13, 02:06 AM

Five more games to go...squeezing haha. To bad I missed the 4 game chase, that was a nice winner. It was also a B bet for Stifler

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-04-13, 10:43 AM

Plays for 4/4/2013

Over Chase (I am playing $50/unit in a 5 game chase for each team to get a over):
Game 3: CHI/PIT Over 7 -120 (481/401)
Game 3: DET/MIN Over 8.5 -105 (463/441)
Game 3: MIA/WAS Over 7 -115 (531/462)
Game 3: KC/CWS Over 8 -110 (485/441)
Game 3: CLE/TOR Over 9 -115 (531/462)

Under Chase (For tracking purposes only)
Game 3: PHI/ATL Under 6.5
Game 3: BAL/TB Under 8
Game 3: BOS/NYY Under 8
Game 3: SD/NYM Under 7.5

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-04-13, 10:53 AM

Regular Chase Play 4/4/13

4 game chase play:
#2: Toronto -170 (170/100) for Game 1

YTD: 1-0
Game 1: 1

Good luck everyone!

grim259 · 04-04-13, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by TheDarkKnight01

Over Chase (I am playing $50/unit in a 5 game chase for each team to get a over):
Game 3: CHI/PIT Over 7 -120 (481/401)
Game 3: DET/MIN Over 8.5 -105 (463/441)
Game 3: MIA/WAS Over 7 -115 (531/462)
Game 3: KC/CWS Over 8 -110 (485/441)
Game 3: CLE/TOR Over 9 -115 (531/462)

Under Chase (For tracking purposes only)
Game 3: PHI/ATL Under 6.5
Game 3: BAL/TB Under 8
Game 3: BOS/NYY Under 8
Game 3: SD/NYM Under 7.5

Good luck to all of us. Sticking with the system, putting all the units out there.

RaleighDevil · 04-04-13, 11:30 AM

The KC/Chicago game was so irritating because there was a fly ball right after the runner on third was out trying to come home on a short wild pitch.

skyscrapers · 04-04-13, 02:46 PM

Goddam...base-loaded with 1 out and no runs are scored at Minny

knugen · 04-04-13, 03:07 PM

Damn, tough start on the night

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-04-13, 03:36 PM

seriously, I was thinking the same thing! Thankfully Twins came thru and we got the over for that one. Yesterday's KC/CWS game got me a little irritated...4 home runs and plenty of other opportunities to score yet they only managed 7 runs!? Owell, that's baseball for ya. Hopefully the bounces come our way down the road...

was gamecasting the CHC/PIT game earlier, was really hoping Marmol would get us at least a push while I was crossing my fingers for a walkoff HR lol.

Need MIA/WAS to keep up the scoring!

samrock67 · 04-04-13, 10:13 PM

Not doing the Over chase but congrats to clearing 2 more off the board and

for starting off 2-0 on the regular chases

Cheers, TDK. Looking forward to tailing you this season.

kcava · 04-04-13, 10:33 PM

Trying to keep a spreadsheet that simply tracks last 10-15 win/loss, home/away, over/under for each team. Is there an online resource / website that does this so I don't have to manually do it every day that anyone knows about?

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-04-13, 10:45 PM

Recap of 4/4/2013

Over Chase (I am playing $50/unit in a 5 game chase for each team to get a over):
Game 3: CHI/PIT Over 7 -120 (481/401) Loser, on to game 4 for both teams on 4/5/2013
Game 3: DET/MIN Over 8.5 -105 (463/441) Winner
Game 3: MIA/WAS Over 7 -115 (531/462) Push, replay game 3 for both teams on 4/5/2013
Game 3: KC/CWS Over 8 -110 (485/441) Loser, on to game 4 for both teams on 4/5/2013
Game 3: CLE/TOR Over 9 -115 (531/462) Winner

YTD: 24-0, +1200 with 6 chases pending
Game 1: 12
Game 2: 4
Game 3: 8 (MIA, WAS pending)
Game 4: 0 (KC, CWS, CHC, PIT pending)

Under Chase (For tracking purposes only)
Game 3: PHI/ATL Under 6.5 Winner
Game 3: BAL/TB Under 8 Loser, on to game 4 for both teams on 4/5/2013
Game 3: BOS/NYY Under 8 Winner
Game 3: SD/NYM Under 7.5 Winner

YTD: 26-0 with 4 chases pending
Game 1: 18
Game 2: 2
Game 3: 6
Game 4: 0 (BAL, TB, MIL, COL pending)

4 game chase play:
#2: Toronto -170 (170/100) for Game 1 Winner

YTD: 2-0
Game 1 wins: 2

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-04-13, 10:46 PM

samrock, thanks man appreciate it.

kcava, try scores and odds . com, i hope that helps.

808bases · 04-05-13, 02:51 AM

Hey TDK I know you're not giving out your system but with time zone differences and work and such I seem to miss these sometimes. Any possibility you could post the night before? Nickel lines from 5dimes too if you put it in the night before

mrk77 · 04-05-13, 07:09 AM

Checking in. From what I understand we only play the over chase and not the under, right?

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-05-13, 09:36 AM

808bases, i'll try my best....

mrk77 that is correct, I play the over chase for half of the regular amount.

Will have plays posted in 1.5 hours or so, these dang early games are throwing me off.

808bases · 04-05-13, 10:26 AM

thanks buddy!

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-05-13, 10:43 AM

O/U Plays for 4/5/2013

Over Chase (I am playing $50/unit in a 5 game chase for each team to get a over):
Game 3: MIA/NYM Over 7.5 +110 (210/231)
Game 3: WAS/CIN Over 8 -110 (254/231)
Game 4: CHC/ATL Over 7.5 Even (441/441)
Game 4: PIT/LAD Over 7 -115 (507/441)
Game 4: SEA/CWS Over 8 Even (463/463)
Game 4: KC/PHI Over 8 +105 (441/463)

Under Chase (For tracking purposes only):
Game 4: MIN/BAL Under 9.5
Game 4: CLE/TB Under 7.5
Game 4: AZ/MIL Under 8.5
Game 4: SD/COL Under 11.5

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-05-13, 10:54 AM

Regular Chase Plays 4/5/13

4 game chase play:
#3: Brewers -135 (135/100) for Game 1
#4: Dodgers -200 (200/100) for Game 1

YTD: 2-0
Game 1 wins: 2

good luck everyone!

laca07 · 04-05-13, 11:27 AM

TDK - On your chases, do you play the listed pitches or action? Sorry if this has been asked before. Thanks.

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-05-13, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by laca07

TDK - On your chases, do you play the listed pitches or action? Sorry if this has been asked before. Thanks.

It will always be ACTION. good luck!

skyscrapers · 04-05-13, 11:52 AM

That's except if you have to buy down to a certain number. For example tonight SEA/CWS I wasn't able to find o8 anymore so I bought it down from 8.5 to 8. In that case the only option is with listed pitchers. I'm comfortable buying down only because this is a chase system.

Yazworm91 · 04-05-13, 12:41 PM

Hey everyone. Good luck on your chase system. I see you guys talking about back testing at covers. Whats the easiest way to do that? Sorry for intruding in your thread.

kcava · 04-05-13, 12:47 PM

Anyone nervous about 4 of our teams being in game 4 tonight? Hoping for a big day!

samrock67 · 04-05-13, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by kcava

Anyone nervous about 4 of our teams being in game 4 tonight? Hoping for a big day!

I personally am not playing the over chases, but at this point most teams are getting to the bottom of their pitching rotation so you would expect more runs...

michst715 · 04-05-13, 01:06 PM

New to the board, but have been following multiple MLB systems on here. Big fan of this one DarkKnight but I do have one question. I may have missed it but are you waiting until all chases are done before releasing the next series? For example, KC/CWS series resulted in all unders thus forcing the system on to game 4 for both teams despite being in series with different teams. However, in the series that have won (hitting an Over) when would those teams begin a new chase (for example Boston/Toronto)? I see that this is based on your personal filters and parameters, so I'm guessing a new chase would start based on your discretion. Just wanted to clear this up. Profitable so far, keep up the great work!

TheDarkKnight01 · 04-05-13, 01:40 PM

good luck to us playing the Over system today. I was contemplating shutting it down last night with a small loss but looked at the matchups and liked them so I decided to play. Hopefully it was the right decision. I believe the reason the chase goes 5 games is because of the rotation, it's banking on at least one of the 5 starters getting hit.

michst715, there are no filters or parameters. For the Over chase, we are doing a 5 game chase for every team to get an over for the first 5 games of the season. Once a team hits the over, we stop the chase and collect our profits. And vice versa for the under chase. I hope that helps.