Multiple MLB Chase Systems (+250 units in 2012)

[TheDarkKnight01]

I jump into the shower with the score 0-0 in the Dbacks game and when I come back out to check the score, it's 6-0 Dbacks. Go Dbacks!! I wish all my showers were like this, I'd camp out in there!

[dalogester]

lol thats funny, amazing day!!

[Jellybeans]

Almost there....

Note to TDK:
1. Set alarm for 1:45 pm
2. Take long shower
3. Check to see when ATL is up 6-0, if not, keep showering and start singing "Take me out to the Ballpark!"

We need this one!

[TheDarkKnight01]

Recap of 5/4/13

4 game chase play:
#64: Dbacks -127 (1337/1053) for Game 4 Winner
#76: Braves -139 (1062/764) for Game 3 Postponed
#82: Braves -139 (373/268) for Game 2 Postponed
#87: Nats -153 (153/100) for Game 1 Winner
#88: Blue Jays -127 (127/100) for Game 1 Loser, on to Game 2 on 5/5/13
#89: Tigers -186 (186/100) for Game 1 Winner
#80: Royals -153 (153/100) for Game 1 Winner
#81: Royals -153 (153/100) for Game 1 Winner
#90: Giants -147 (147/100) for Game 1 Winner

YTD: 82-1 +1398
Game 1: 54 (#28, #29 pending)
Game 2: 18 (#39, #82, #88 pending)
Game 3: 7 (#76 pending)
Game 4: 3 (#37 pending)
Losses: 1

3 game chase play:
#1: Yankees -120 (298/248) for Game 2 Winner
#2: Yankees -120 (298/248) for Game 2 Winner
#3: Braves -139 (653/470) for Game 2 [changing it to 1u play, we have enough riding on Braves as is today] Postponed

Unfortunately, #3 will become a 2 game chase since today's game was postponed...

YTD: 3-0 +300
Game 1: 1
Game 2: 2 (#3 pending)

[knugen]

What an amazing night.. Thx tdk

[Jellybeans]

Was double checking my spreadsheet.
hmmm, what happened to "3 game chase play" #4 Royals Game 1 on 3-May-2013?
There was originally 3 plays on Royals, #80 & #81.

[TheDarkKnight01]

Was double checking my spreadsheet.
hmmm, what happened to "3 game chase play" #4 Royals Game 1 on 3-May-2013?
There was originally 3 plays on Royals, #80 & #81.

ya I cancelled that chase since it was postponed, didn't feel like doing a 2 game chase on that series. Stupid me...

[TheDarkKnight01]

Plays for 5/5/13

4 game chase play:
#76: Braves -160 (1222/764) for Game 3
#82: Braves -160 (429/268) for Game 2
#88: Blue Jays -162 (368/227) for Game 2
#91: Giants -141 (423/300) for Game 1
#92: Phillies -181 (543/300) for Game 1
#93: Brewers -115 (230/200) for Game 1
#94: Yankees -145 (290/200) for Game 1

Notes:
There’s supposed to be a Game 4 for #37 on the Brew Crew today but I just don’t feel comfortable with that one so I’m not playing it and will eat the 11.76 unit loss. My record is updated with this and I will be transferring the units around on other chases in hopes of spreading the money out and winning it back.

YTD: 82-2 +122
Game 1: 54 (#28, #29 pending)
Game 2: 18 (#39, #82, #88 pending)
Game 3: 7 (#76 pending)
Game 4: 3
Losses: 2

3 game chase play:

#3: Braves -160 (752/470) for Game 2 [changing it to 1u play, we have enough riding on Braves as is today]

YTD: 3-0 +300
Game 1: 1
Game 2: 2 (#3 pending)

[dalogester]

im riding the brew crew today for the game 4. gl to who all choose to and those that spread to other chases.

[samrock67]

Just wanted to chime in again to say that since my last posting of keeping track of this system on the RL, which was on 5/1, the system has jumped from +126 units to +154 units.

I'm officially on the TDK RL train. Next step would be keeping track in a separate thread...provided there was enough interest.

[dalogester]

I would follow

[Wallco99]

Just wanted to chime in again to say that since my last posting of keeping track of this system on the RL, which was on 5/1, the system has jumped from +126 units to +154 units.

I'm officially on the TDK RL train. Next step would be keeping track in a separate thread...provided there was enough interest.

I would be interested in seeing that, but as I said, be careful starting something that you can only backtest for a total of a few weeks. Many systems I tested on R/L started out on fire for a month or two, which I later found out to be train wrecks the further back I tested. Since systems aren't being disclosed and you can't perform these backtests, just be very very careful with what could be a mirage. This could be a great idea, and could be very profitable for everyone involved. But this thread runner's insistance of not sharing the rules with anyone, for some unknown reason, could potentially be costing players boat loads of money if this theory could be properly backtested and proven effective. The only thing I can think is he will be joining the list of SBR members who went tout and once this system shows a reasonable profit, will then begin to try selling it to you guys. I can think of no other reason it has to be so secretive. We all, including myself, post several systems on here throughout the year with which we share the rules and websites we use for official lines. Everyone knowing the rules has made many of our systems much better as the years progressed. But when I log on to one like this, where everyone is blindly betting on some guys posts, I am only led to one conclusion. Good luck, I hope it all pans out, and most of all, I hope it stays free for all of you. I really hope your R/L theory pans out Sam because I am a big fan of +money MLB chase betting.

[rustie]

Just wanted to chime in again to say that since my last posting of keeping track of this system on the RL, which was on 5/1, the system has jumped from +126 units to +154 units.

I'm officially on the TDK RL train. Next step would be keeping track in a separate thread...provided there was enough interest.

Interested Sam, give 'er. Thanks

[samrock67]

I would be interested in seeing that, but as I said, be careful starting something that you can only backtest for a total of a few weeks. Many systems I tested on R/L started out on fire for a month or two, which I later found out to be train wrecks the further back I tested. Since systems aren't being disclosed and you can't perform these backtests, just be very very careful with what could be a mirage. This could be a great idea, and could be very profitable for everyone involved. But this thread runner's insistance of not sharing the rules with anyone, for some unknown reason, could potentially be costing players boat loads of money if this theory could be properly backtested and proven effective. The only thing I can think is he will be joining the list of SBR members who went tout and once this system shows a reasonable profit, will then begin to try selling it to you guys. I can think of no other reason it has to be so secretive. We all, including myself, post several systems on here throughout the year with which we share the rules and websites we use for official lines. Everyone knowing the rules has made many of our systems much better as the years progressed. But when I log on to one like this, where everyone is blindly betting on some guys posts, I am only led to one conclusion. Good luck, I hope it all pans out, and most of all, I hope it stays free for all of you. I really hope your R/L theory pans out Sam because I am a big fan of +money MLB chase betting.

As usual, you make some very valid points Wallco. I was going to spend the summer backtesting different models on the RL to see if I could find a good pattern and lock into it. I really hope to find something substantial.

Similar to my Stifler thread(which I fear I may let die in the near future) I would only run the thread for tracking purposes, and if people choose to actually bet on the plays, it's on them. I think there's a lot of money to be had in RL chasing, I just need to do enough research and backtest far enough to get a good idea of what is consistently profitable.

Also similar to Stifler is that running TDK's system on the RL would also not be a mirror image of his picks from day to day- it would basically be tailing each team from Bet 1 for their next 4 games in the hopes that they cover on the RL.

Right now, TDK's system is 81-4 with +153.87u profit based on running it that way. Even if you tacked on another 4 losses to match Stifler's RL losses(8), you would still be up 94 units. I think this could largely be due to the difference between TDK's systems and Stifler's, which is that Stifler's filters choose new teams every year, whereas with TDK, if I had to guess, the systems he is using are those that are based on specific rules that would not change the teams on a year to year basis. I could be wrong, of course, but realizing that Stifler's backtested numbers are based on this year's "teams" and pitchers have kinda turned me off.

I'm sure TDK has good reasoning for not telling us the parameters/rules for each system- it could be as simple as he is the one doing all of the work or to prevent the trolls from posting the plays themselves/just being trolls. Regardless, TDK is off to a phenomenal start and I hope it continues. I hope the RL system continued to profit as well, as a coordination between the RL and the systems that he is using could turn out to produce massive profits for everyone

[acehole]

As usual, you make some very valid points Wallco. I was going to spend the summer backtesting different models on the RL to see if I could find a good pattern and lock into it. I really hope to find something substantial.

Similar to my Stifler thread(which I fear I may let die in the near future) I would only run the thread for tracking purposes, and if people choose to actually bet on the plays, it's on them. I think there's a lot of money to be had in RL chasing, I just need to do enough research and backtest far enough to get a good idea of what is consistently profitable.

Also similar to Stifler is that running TDK's system on the RL would also not be a mirror image of his picks from day to day- it would basically be tailing each team from Bet 1 for their next 4 games in the hopes that they cover on the RL.

Right now, TDK's system is 81-4 with +153.87u profit based on running it that way. Even if you tacked on another 4 losses to match Stifler's RL losses(8), you would still be up 94 units. I think this could largely be due to the difference between TDK's systems and Stifler's, which is that Stifler's filters choose new teams every year, whereas with TDK, if I had to guess, the systems he is using are those that are based on specific rules that would not change the teams on a year to year basis. I could be wrong, of course, but realizing that Stifler's backtested numbers are based on this year's "teams" and pitchers have kinda turned me off.

I'm sure TDK has good reasoning for not telling us the parameters/rules for each system- it could be as simple as he is the one doing all of the work or to prevent the trolls from posting the plays themselves/just being trolls. Regardless, TDK is off to a phenomenal start and I hope it continues. I hope the RL system continued to profit as well, as a coordination between the RL and the systems that he is using could turn out to produce massive profits for everyone

this would be a great new thread starter.. its hard enough now to scroll down now to find the tdk. post

[dalogester]

just took a dump and braves scored 4 runs up 4-0!!!!

[COYLO]

penetrate..... books didnt have odds for the braves game up all day checked there now and the game started fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucccccccccccccccck.

[TheDarkKnight01]

Here's my 2 cents regarding the recent posts on this thread. It's a long 2 cents but here goes:

First of all, I just want to say I have the utmost respect for you Wallco. The time, work, and contributions you've put in this forum is undeniable. Also you are one of the few successful chase artists in the game, I tip my hat off to you.

To respond to your comment regarding my discretion on keeping filters/parameters secret, is that not my right? Is the time I put into running the systems and posting plays not sufficient? As I'm sure you know, it's extremely time consuming to run systems, post plays, keep things organized, answer questions, ignore haters, and all else that's associated with posting. As it currently is, I am running 8 different systems and that is very time consuming in itself and to be posting all the plays makes it even more time consuming, all while having a full time job and having time to myself. I could easily go offline and play these myself but I choose to post plays in hopes of helping others profit and that is why I continue to post.

What if there's someone lurking in the shadows out there who will copy all the work/backtesting I have done over the years and steals it? Can I not keep filters a secret as an insurance policy to prevent that from happening? Just like no one has met me, I have not met any of you either. It's quite possible there are trolls out there. After all it's happened before on this very forum with the "shut out system", why can't it happen here? I'd rather be safe than sorry and regret it later, no?

For the most part, I have received nothing but support and that is very appreciated, it is the reason why I continue to post and invest my time but please don't get me wrong, I just would like some sense of security measure.

Sam - I think that's a great idea and I personally think it will be profitable but that's just me. I didn't backtest the RL and don't really have the time to but I do think it can be profitable. I don't have to warn you about the dangers of a new chase, you're a vet that knows what you're doing so I'll just leave it at that.

acehole - you can follow me on t w i t t e r @darkknight1949 to avoid all the clutter with this thread, I post plays on my b l o g and only my plays.

Go Braves!!

P.S. It looks like I picked some horrible chases to transfer the units from #37 on, stupid me...

[808bases]

Just wanted to chime in again to say that since my last posting of keeping track of this system on the RL, which was on 5/1, the system has jumped from +126 units to +154 units.

I'm officially on the TDK RL train. Next step would be keeping track in a separate thread...provided there was enough interest.

I'm down Samrock.

[808bases]

Man I picked a bad day to sleep in. Looks like I missed some big plays

[samrock67]

Ok, the RL chase thread is up and running and can be found here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/2332152-samrocks-2013-tdk-2-0-rl-chase.html#post18600664

BOL to all who follow and we will start tomorrow.

[skyscrapers]

Good call on passing on the Brew Crew game 4 today
I don't think it's necessary to put down this 3-game MIL chase as a loss.
Just put pending until you find a good situation to transfer the 11 units to.

[acehole]

thanks for the twit add. tdk. ive been tailing all season..awsome work and thanks for all you do will drop in and clutter from time to time with a thank you

[kdavis]

have you thought about turning all your systems into a 4 game chase on the underdog. going back 3 years to see if it would work out. assuming you kept records of every play you made. for example mlb john morrison is a 3 game chase bet on the 1.5 line if the team betting on is favored and bet the dog if it's a dog if lose 3 games then wait till that team qualify's again to bet the fourth game. adg is doing this over at covers . com and his high was 50,000 on a 2000 doller bankroll. he ended up with 12,00 cause a terrible last 2 weeks in augest. if you try to play underdogs it's probably best too quit around middle of Augest. maybe somthing too look forward too next year. as youll have all nba season to back and test to see if it would work.

What is the title to this thread over at covers? I tried to check it out but couldn't find it. Is adg the username or is that an abbreviation?

[calebepley93]

I get both Wallco and TDK's position's in regards to releasing sytem parameters.

Releasing them would be very beneficial to those hesitant to play without backtested results and would open the door for many possible improvements. The runline idea looks great right now but one month is certainly not an adequate sample size for a chase system; releasing backtested results would allow others who have the time to backtest to provide further insight to its profitability.

However, if Dark Knight chooses not to release his parameters that's certainly his right and he is not obligated to do otherwise. If the system sees great results and he chooses to go tout then good for him! He has every right to do that; don't act like many of us tailers wouldn't do the same thing.

If you've been playing this all season you can start to see some of the patterns any way. Personally, I like what Cisco does in releasing his parameters and leaving the possibility to donate to his paypal account.

[Poison-Nut]

[QUOTE=808bases;18600558]Man I picked a bad day to sleep in. Looks like I missed some big plays[/QUOT

Me too I had to work last night. Came home early in the morning and the Braves game was locked out for some reason. Couldn't bet on the game. So I missed my final chase with them. Crap j needed that win.

[Poison-Nut]

I also believe its ur right TDK to post ur system. Just keep making us some money and I am fine with whatever u do. Keep up the good work.

[cooler54]

dk does your chase system go till end of the mlb year or does it stop by sept like alot of other chases?

[Browns1]

Thanks

Just keep posting and don 't worry about anything else!

[TheDarkKnight01]

skyscrapers, dang that's a good idea... I should have done that!! Owell...

cooler, the systems will most likely end by the 1st or 2nd week of September, I stop it a little early because teams tend to give up/rest players/play prospects around that time.

[TheDarkKnight01]

Recap of 5/5/13

4 game chase play:
#76: Braves -160 (1222/764) for Game 3 Winner +100
#82: Braves -160 (429/268) for Game 2 Winner +100
#88: Blue Jays -162 (368/227) for Game 2 Winner +100
#91: Giants -141 (423/300) for Game 1 Winner +300
#92: Phillies -181 (543/300) for Game 1 Loser
#93: Brewers -115 (230/200) for Game 1 Loser
#94: Yankees -145 (290/200) for Game 1 Loser

YTD: 86-2 +722
Game 1: 55 (#28, #29 pending)
Game 2: 20 (#39, #92, #93, #94 pending)
Game 3: 8
Game 4: 3
Losses: 2

3 game chase play:
#3: Braves -160 (752/470) for Game 2 [changing it to 1u play, we have enough riding on Braves as is today] Winner +100

YTD: 4-0 +400
Game 1: 1
Game 2: 3

[Jellybeans]

2-May --- Huge win Tigers, Philies
4-May --- Dbacks picked up that D bet
5-May --- Atlanta brought it home
Also lots of game 1's wins
Nice call on game #37, they should have won that on game 2.
Very nice weekend overall.
Thanks for posting, organizing, all the back testing etc...
Keep it going strong
Gonna get me some magaritas! Happy cinco de Mayo

[cooler54]

is playing to win 1% of your bankroll each chase an acceptable thing to do with these chases? 2500 dollar bankroll and betting to win 25 dolllars each chase?

[dalogester]

Yes its fine but there might be some expensive chases.. especially run line chases, always keep that in mind

[TheDarkKnight01]

Plays for 5/6/13

4 game chase play:
#92: Padres -182 (1170/643) for Game 2 [changing this to a 1u play]
#94: Indians -117 (456/390) for Game 2 [changing this to a 1u play]
#95: Padres -182 (182/100) for Game 1
#96: Giants -145 (145/100) for Game 1

Notes:
There may be additional plays on the Braves and Dodgers, I will update an hour before game time

YTD: 86-2 +722
Game 1: 55 (#28, #29 pending)
Game 2: 20 (#39, #92, #93, #94 pending)
Game 3: 8
Game 4: 3
Losses: 2

Series Chase Plays:
#6: Padres -182 (182/100) for Game 1
#7: Giants -145 (145/100) for Game 1
#8: Red Sox -208 (416/200) for Game 1 [2u play]

YTD: 4-0 +400
Game 1: 1
Game 2: 3

good luck!