Multiple MLB Chase Systems (+250 units in 2012)

samrock67 · 05-01-13, 10:06 PM

I'm just curious how much of a sample size is enough to instill confidence to start playing this system om the RL? We're 1 month into the season, which leaves 6 more. At the current pace, those 6 months would bring in another 756 units. Is that unreasonable? Probably. But it's something to think about.

Naturally, the second i start playing this system on the RL is when it'll start to tank on the RL. I may give it another 2 weeks and if it's up over 150 units I really am going to strongly consider playing it on the RL.

skyscrapers · 05-01-13, 10:22 PM

Sam would you consider chasing for 5 games on your RL system? 1-2-4-8-16. The most you stand to lose is only 31 units which is considerably lower than a loss on the 'standard' 4-game ML chase? What would the stats be had you chased for 5 games during the first month? For example today PIT covered the RL on the fifth game.

samrock67 · 05-01-13, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by skyscrapers

Sam would you consider chasing for 5 games on your RL system? 1-2-4-8-16. The most you stand to lose is only 31 units which is considerably lower than a loss on the 'standard' 4-game ML chase? What would the stats be had you chased for 5 games during the first month? For example today PIT covered the RL on the fifth game.

Based on the fact that chasing for a 5th game still results in a loss for 3/4 losses that this RL system has incurred so far, I would lean towards no.

You also need to keep in mind that my system is not a mirror image of TDK's system...whatever team is listed for Game 1 is the team I am sticking with for their next 4 games- so, if the series is a fade series and switches teams mid-series(like that Pit loss started off with a bet 1 on the Cubs, who went on to cover the RL on their Game 4 bet), it is not reflected in my back test. I simply take the team listed for Game one and tail them on the RL for 4 games. So far it's worked our pretty damn nicely.

TheDarkKnight01 · 05-01-13, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by samrock67

I'm just curious how much of a sample size is enough to instill confidence to start playing this system om the RL? We're 1 month into the season, which leaves 6 more. At the current pace, those 6 months would bring in another 756 units. Is that unreasonable? Probably. But it's something to think about.

Naturally, the second i start playing this system on the RL is when it'll start to tank on the RL. I may give it another 2 weeks and if it's up over 150 units I really am going to strongly consider playing it on the RL.

Whoa, that is definitely high potential. I will take a couple days to think about a plan to instill the RL into the chases but as of right now, I think more data will be needed. I don't want to jump into anything this drastic with 1 month's worth of data. If it continues to be profitable, it may make sense to incorporate the RL in some way.

On a side note, 3 game chases will begin tomorrow, I hope everyone's ready!

skyscrapers · 05-01-13, 11:58 PM

Ok gotcha. I always had the impression that your system mirrors TDK's and Stif's system but apparently not.

Poison-Nut · 05-02-13, 05:54 AM

Do we have any early plays.

TheDarkKnight01 · 05-02-13, 11:07 AM

Recap of 5/1/13

4 game chase play:
#73: Mets -134 (299/223) for Game 2 Winner
#75: Mets -134 (134/100) for Game 1 Winner
#74: Phillies -140 (301/215) for Game 2 Loser

YTD: 65-1 -307
Game 1: 42 (#28, #29 pending)
Game 2: 15 (#39, #48, #56 pending)
Game 3: 5 (#37, #46, #64, #74 pending)
Game 4: 2
Losses: 1

TheDarkKnight01 · 05-02-13, 11:29 AM

Plays for 5/2/13

4 game chase play:
#46: Tigers -165 (823/499) for Game 3
#48: Phillies -212 (490/231) for Game 2
#56: Phillies -212 (589/278) for Game 2
#74: Phillies -212 (1094/516) for Game 3
#76: Braves -168 (168/100) for Game 1
#77: Padres +105 (100/105) for Game 1
#78: Tigers -165 (165/100) for Game 1
#79: Tigers -165 (165/100) for Game 1
#80: Royals -145 (145/100) for Game 1
#81: Royals -145 (145/100) for Game 1

good luck!

YTD: 65-1 -307
Game 1: 42 (#28, #29 pending)
Game 2: 15 (#39, #48, #56 pending)
Game 3: 5 (#37, #46, #64, #74 pending)
Game 4: 2
Losses: 1

dalogester · 05-02-13, 11:58 AM

Dark Knight, I thought you said there would be some 3 game chases starting today?

TheDarkKnight01 · 05-02-13, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by dalogester

Dark Knight, I thought you said there would be some 3 game chases starting today?

I was wrong, it turned out to be a 4 game chase on the Tigers since that one is a 4 game series, not a 3. I meant to separate it but forgot since I was in a rush to post due to the morning games. Sorry about that, I'll separate it out tomorrow.

knugen · 05-03-13, 12:20 AM

Great night TDK

Jellybeans · 05-03-13, 01:00 AM

Sweeet!!!
Closed out some games, almost perfect night!

Poison-Nut · 05-03-13, 02:15 AM

Hell yea!!! Big night for us guys. Great job TDK. What a win by the Tigers.

skyscrapers · 05-03-13, 04:31 AM

I was travelling all day today and missed all plays. You guys had a great night but I have to somehow come up with something to make up the 17units you guys won on Thurs. I'm just screwed now with these game 2s and 3s that won that I wasn't able to put down a bet on. Fuk

TheDarkKnight01 · 05-03-13, 11:10 AM

Recap of 5/2/13

4 game chase play:
#46: Tigers -165 (823/499) for Game 3 Winner
#48: Phillies -212 (490/231) for Game 2 Winner
#56: Phillies -212 (589/278) for Game 2 Winner
#74: Phillies -212 (1094/516) for Game 3 Winner
#76: Braves -168 (168/100) for Game 1 Loser, on to Game 2 on 5/3/13
#77: Padres +105 (100/105) for Game 1 Winner
#78: Tigers -165 (165/100) for Game 1 Winner
#79: Tigers -165 (165/100) for Game 1 Winner
#80: Royals -145 (145/100) for Game 1 Postponed, replay Game 1 on 5/3/13
#81: Royals -145 (145/100) for Game 1 Postponed, replay Game 1 on 5/3/13

YTD: 71-1 +398
Game 1: 45 (#28, #29, #80, #81 pending)
Game 2: 17 (#39 pending)
Game 3: 7 (#37, #64 pending)
Game 4: 2
Losses: 1

TheDarkKnight01 · 05-03-13, 11:18 AM

Plays for 5/3/13

4 game chase play:
#37: Brewers -117 (688/588) for Game 3
#64: Dbacks -128 (591/462) for Game 3
#76: Braves -185 (496/268) for Game 2
#80: Royals -150 (150/100) for Game 1
#81: Royals -150 (150/100) for Game 1
#82: Braves -185 (185/100) for Game 1
#83: Rangers (128/100) for Game 1
#84: Rangers (128/100) for Game 1
#85: Reds (107/100) for Game 1
#86: Reds (107/100) for Game 1

3 game chase play:
#1: Yankees -148 (148/100) for Game 1
#2: Yankees -148 (148/100) for Game 1
#3: Braves -185 (370/200) for Game 1 [2u special]
#4: Royals -150 (150/100) for Game 1
#5: Indians -150 (150/100) for Game 1

good luck!

YTD: 71-1 +398
Game 1: 45 (#28, #29, #80, #81 pending)
Game 2: 17 (#39 pending)
Game 3: 7 (#37, #64 pending)
Game 4: 2
Losses: 1

TheDarkKnight01 · 05-03-13, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by skyscrapers

I was travelling all day today and missed all plays. You guys had a great night but I have to somehow come up with something to make up the 17units you guys won on Thurs. I'm just screwed now with these game 2s and 3s that won that I wasn't able to put down a bet on. Fuk

I would transfer a few of the units onto the braves and dbacks chases

knugen · 05-03-13, 12:59 PM

TDK.. Do u have any stats for the 3 game chase and the 4 game chase separated from each other..
Which is the strongest?

skyscrapers · 05-03-13, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by TheDarkKnight01

I would transfer a few of the units onto the braves and dbacks chases

Ya, I think I'm going to do just that and also double-up my normal bet size for those game 1's to hopefully catch-up with you guys.

skyscrapers · 05-03-13, 02:12 PM

TDK, shouldn't the YTD total be at 72-1 at this moment?

dalogester · 05-03-13, 04:27 PM

Royals game post poned again.. sigh stupid Kansas weather

TheDarkKnight01 · 05-03-13, 04:52 PM

knugen, 4 game chases have hit at an average of between 97-98% while the 3 game chases have hit at about 95%. 4 game chases have hit at a better rate but of course there's an extra game in the chase, so the amount of risk is higher. I hope that helps.

skyscrapers, ahh you're right. record should be:

YTD: 72-1 +398
Game 1: 45 (#28, #29, #80, #81 pending)
Game 2: 18 (#39 pending)
Game 3: 7 (#37, #64 pending)
Game 4: 2
Losses: 1

The +398 is accurate, I just miscounted the amount of games. Good catch and thanks buddy.

Phew, Reds ending was a little dicey but we got the win. It's always nice to start off the day on the right foot, now let's finish strong. good luck guys.

Wallco99 · 05-03-13, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by samrock67

Based on the fact that chasing for a 5th game still results in a loss for 3/4 losses that this RL system has incurred so far, I would lean towards no.

You also need to keep in mind that my system is not a mirror image of TDK's system...whatever team is listed for Game 1 is the team I am sticking with for their next 4 games- so, if the series is a fade series and switches teams mid-series(like that Pit loss started off with a bet 1 on the Cubs, who went on to cover the RL on their Game 4 bet), it is not reflected in my back test. I simply take the team listed for Game one and tail them on the RL for 4 games. So far it's worked our pretty damn nicely.

You are obviously talking about the -1 1/2 line on favorites and not also the +1 1/2 on dogs, I assume you would play those teams M/L, or are you buying the ALT line of -1 1/2 on dog teams as well?

I have backtested countless MLB systems, many of them being ALL +money bet systems (-1 1/2 on FAVS and M/L on DOGS). Many are losers long haul, but several have been profitable. I am a huge fan of +money baseball chase betting and by no means am bashing your theory. Many of the systems I have tested were based on results of games that I had been watching in recent days. I then would begin backtesting theories of trends I was seeing, and many would still perform well for a while, possibly even for a whole year before crashing and burning. Two systems that I tested have survived my countless backtests, and these are two of the systems I have been playing successfully for 2 years. The problem you have is you have tested your theory based on games posted this year and you have no way of testing any further because he is keeping his systems secret. So in reality, you don't know if it is like the 20+ systems I threw out or the lucky two that happened to survive. You really need to be careful implementing rules to a system that not only hasn't been disclosed, but who's prior year's results are purely based on somebody saying so with no prior knowledge of that person's backtesting skills and accuracy.

I think what you are proposing is very interesting and I will definitely track the results. I personally try to play the +money plays whenever possible, it definitely can extend your chases and win profits. But as I said, be careful doing so on something that can only be tested back to the first posted play. Good luck Sam.

TheDarkKnight01 · 05-04-13, 12:57 AM

Recap of 5/3/13

4 game chase play:
#37: Brewers -117 (688/588) for Game 3 Loser, Game 4 TBD
#64: Dbacks -128 (591/462) for Game 3 Loser, on to Game 4 on 5/4/13
#76: Braves -185 (496/268) for Game 2 Loser, on to Game 3 on 5/4/13
#80: Royals -150 (150/100) for Game 1 Postponed
#81: Royals -150 (150/100) for Game 1 Postponed
#82: Braves -185 (185/100) for Game 1 Loser, on to Game 2 on 5/4/13
#83: Rangers (128/100) for Game 1 Winner
#84: Rangers (128/100) for Game 1 Winner
#85: Reds (107/100) for Game 1 Winner
#86: Reds (107/100) for Game 1 Winner

YTD: 76-1 +798
Game 1: 49 (#28, #29, #80, #81 pending)
Game 2: 18 (#39, #82 pending)
Game 3: 7 (#76 pending)
Game 4: 2 (#37, #64 pending)
Losses: 1

3 game chase play:
#1: Yankees -148 (148/100) for Game 1 Loser, on to Game 2 on 5/4/13
#2: Yankees -148 (148/100) for Game 1 Loser, on to Game 2 on 5/4/13
#3: Braves -185 (370/200) for Game 1 Loser, on to Game 2 on 5/4/13
#4: Royals -150 (150/100) for Game 1 Postponed
#5: Indians -150 (150/100) for Game 1 Winner

YTD: 1-0 +100
Game 1: 1
Game 2: 0 (#1, #2, #3 pending)

dalogester · 05-04-13, 01:01 AM

D-backs and braves both couldnt pull out close ones

TheDarkKnight01 · 05-04-13, 01:12 AM

Plays for 5/4/13

Wanted to get these in early, final card will be posted in the morning. NO PLAY on #37 today, Brewers are dogs.

4 game chase play:
#64: Dbacks -127 (1337/1053) for Game 4
#76: Braves -139 (1062/764) for Game 3
#82: Braves -139 (373/268) for Game 2
#87: Nats -153 (153/100) for Game 1
#88: Blue Jays -127 (127/100) for Game 1
#89: Tigers -186 (186/100) for Game 1

YTD: 76-1 +798
Game 1: 49 (#28, #29, #80, #81 pending)
Game 2: 18 (#39, #82 pending)
Game 3: 7 (#76 pending)
Game 4: 2 (#37, #64 pending)
Losses: 1

3 game chase play:
#1: Yankees -120 (298/248) for Game 2
#2: Yankees -120 (298/248) for Game 2
#3: Braves -139 (653/470) for Game 2 [changing it to 1u play, we have enough riding on Braves as is today]

YTD: 1-0 +100
Game 1: 1
Game 2: 0 (#1, #2, #3 pending)

good luck and may the gambling gods be with us today.

Poison-Nut · 05-04-13, 02:14 AM

This is i is it fellows. I am pretty much tapped out. I need the f-ing Braves to win. It was soooooooo hard today for me. I am a huge Mets fan with having Marcum (SP) on my fantasy team pitching, and I am betting against them- Oh crap. Tip #1 for myself, stay away when this happens, and your blood pressure will go down.

Now It's showtime for the Braves.

Poison-Nut · 05-04-13, 02:16 AM

My only question is does everyone play all the chases???? It just seems like there is too much $$$$ on the table at one time. I usually only play 1 set of chases when there are multiple plays on 1 team.

skyscrapers · 05-04-13, 02:36 AM

For a system to be successful you've got to play all the chases. I can't answer for everyone but I myself play every single chase even if there are multiple sets of chases on the same team. Yesterday was an anomaly for me in which I was travelling and unable to play any of his play but otherwise I am sticking with the system. You just got to have enough BR (and guts) to sustain a day with a high number of plays.

Go Braves Go!!! You too D-backs!!!

knugen · 05-04-13, 03:40 AM

Really really need braves dbacks and yankees to win tonight

TheDarkKnight01 · 05-04-13, 10:08 AM

Additional Plays for 5/4/13

4 game chase play:
#80: Royals -153 (153/100) for Game 1
#81: Royals -153 (153/100) for Game 1
#90: Giants -147 (147/100) for Game 1

Card is now final. Good luck!

skyscrapers · 05-04-13, 02:30 PM

Just weird weather in the east...keep messing up our chases

. Braves postponed.

dalogester · 05-04-13, 02:52 PM

Kind of glad braves game is post poned so we don't have everything all in on 1 day of games.
1 down with Yankees win, now lets go D-Backs... !!!

TheDarkKnight01 · 05-04-13, 02:52 PM

Lame...

Well, we got the Yankees, now we really need Dbacks to come thru while we get ATL tomorrow!

Poison-Nut · 05-04-13, 06:39 PM

Nice win by nats. Top of the 9th. Tigers up 4-0 right now. Come on KC and Giants. Need as much cash as possible for this Braves bet. Mutiple nets.