🩸 UFC Freedom 250 Odds: Topuria vs. Gaethje Betting Lines & Card Info

The MMA world is set for a weird one this weekend at UFC Freedom 250: it's a rare Sunday card, there are only seven fights, and it's happening from the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C. 

We have the best live UFC Freedom 250 odds, breaking down all seven fights and looking at the betting outlook for each clash. The action starts at 8 p.m. ET, streaming on Paramount+.

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📊 UFC Freedom 250 odds - Main Card

Ilia Topuria (17-0) vs. Justin Gaethje (27-5)

Ilia Topuria:

• El Matador -> First fight in nearly a year (June 28, 2025), Topuria is defending his lightweight strap for the first time
• Key stat -> Has a 64.1% significant strike defense, the 10th-best among all active fighters

Justin Gaethje:

• The Highlight -> Is the interim lightweight champ, beating Paddy Pimblett by decision in January while Topuria was on the shelf
• Key stat -> Has propelled 6.48 strikes landed per minute into 15 Fight Night bonuses

🩸 Betting outlook

Despite the explosive nature of both men, there is enough experience and toughness here that both fighters should be able to navigate to an Over 1.5 (-110)

Alex Pereira (13-3) vs. Ciryl Gane (13-2)

Alex Pereira:

• Poatan -> Can become the first UFC fighter to win titles in three divisions as he moves to heavyweight for the first time at 38-years-old
• Key stat -> His 62.1% significant strike accuracy is the second-best among all active UFC fighters (5.16 strikes/minute)

Ciryl Gane:

• Bon Gamin -> Getting a second title shot (this time interim) after poking Tom Aspinall in the eye in October, a fight that ended in a No Contest
• Key stat -> Gane has the sixth-best striking differential among active fighters (2.96) and the third-best accuracy (61.7%)

🩸 Betting outlook

Gane has some enormous physical advantages, with over 40 lbs and a two-inch reach advantage, making him a valid underdog (-105) bet and bringing his decision (+310) into play.

Sean O'Malley (19-3) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (14-2)

Sean O'Malley:

• Suga -> Searching for his first highlight reel finish since a TKO win over Aljamain Sterling in 2023; 2-2 in his last four fights, with three trips to the judges and a submission loss
• Key stat -> His 60.8% significant strike accuracy (fourth among active fighters) has led to a 2.71 differential (ninth among active fighters)

Aiemann Zahabi:

• The Canadian -> Has rattled off seven straight wins, five of which have been decisions and two by KO/TKO
• Key stat -> Zahabi's 69.2% significant strike defense is the best of all active fighters (and eighth best all-time)

🩸 Betting outlook

Despite the long odds here, the move is target the fight to go the distance (-165) and perhaps even Over 2.5 rounds (-200). Both fighters have excellent defense and neither has a history of being finished.

Josh Hokit (9-0) vs. Derrick Lewis (29-13)

Josh Hokit:

• Joe Rogan's doing -> Rogan's reaction to Hokit's last fight (a decision win vs. Curtis Blaydes in April) prompted a call to get him on the card
• Key stat -> Hokit has recorded 3.89 takedowns per 15 minutes, while also delivering 9.25 significant strikes per minute

Derrick Lewis:

• The Presidential request -> President Trump specifically called Dana White to request Lewis join the card
• Key stat -> Lewis has 31 fights (10th-most active fighters), 20 wins (eighth), 16 finishes (third), and 16 KO/TKO wins (first)

🩸 Betting outlook

Despite Trump's backing Lewis, and Lewis' experience, this a changing of the guard that Hokit will win via KO/TKO (+105).

Mauricio Ruffy (13-2) vs. Michael Chandler (23-10)

Mauricio Ruffy:

• New era nerd -> The 29-year-old Fighting Nerds up-and-comer is 4-1 across five UFC fights, with three KO/TKO victories
• Key stat -> Has an 11-year age advantage and four-inch reach advantage over Chandler

Michael Chandler:

• Iron -> Just 2-5 across seven fights since joining UFC from Bellator in 2021
• Key stat -> Just 43% striking defense in the UFC, absorbing 4.52 strikes per minute

🩸 Betting outlook

It's difficult to find value here, given just how heavy of a favorite Ruffy is, so we're going to look at the Over 1.5 rounds (+110), and the Ruffy by KO/TKO parlayed with Over 1.5 rounds (+310), banking on Chandler's experience to keep him in the fight before he ultimately fails to hold off the 29-year-old challenger. This is a partial-unit play at most.

Bo Nickal (8-1) vs. Kyle Daukaus (17-4)

Bo Nickal:

• The wrestling phenom -> A decorated collegiate wrestler, his last two fights (1-1) have ended iva KO/TKO, most recently a third-round win vs. Rodolfo Vieira in November
• Key stat -> Suffered his first career loss two fights back, losing in a third-round KO/TKO to Reinier de Ridder

Kyle Daukaus: 

• The D'Arce Knight -> Enters off back-to-back first round victories since returning to the UFC last year, with a KO/TKO win over Michel Pereira in August, and a submission victory over Gerald Meerschaert in November
• Key stat -> Nine of his career wins (including the recent one over Meerschaert) are via D'Arce Choke

🩸 Betting outlook

With two submission artists (and Nickal capable of the occasional KO/TKO), it's worth a half-unit on the Under 1.5 rounds (+120) in another fight that is quite lopsided on the moneyline. 

Diego Lopes (27-8) vs. Steve Garcia (19-5)

Diego Lopes:

• The action hero -> Has two decision losses in title fights in his last three bouts, both to Alexander Volkanovski, most recently in January
• Key stat -> Has a 0.88 takedown average (50% accuracy) with a 1.4 submission average

Steve Garcia:

• Mean Machine -> Has won seven straight fights dating to October 2022, six of which have come via KO/TKO
• Key stat -> His 1.99 knockdowns per 15 minutes rank sixth-best among active fighters, and his 2.97 striking differential is fifth-best

🩸 Betting outlook

Once again this should be another electric fight that features plenty of chances to finish early, so the Under 1.5 (-105) is the move here.

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📺 Where to watch UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

• Date: Sunday, June 14
• Start times: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: South Lawn of the White House (Washington, D.C.)
• Streaming: Paramount+

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