⚽ Netherlands vs. Japan Prediction: World Cup Picks & Best Bets (June 14)
It's bound to be a testy battle this afternoon as Group F play gets underway with a tilt between Netherlands and Japan, and I've waded through the noise to come up with my best Netherlands vs. Japan prediction. The action from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, gets underway at 4 p.m. ET, and is airing on FOX and Telemundo and streaming on Peacock.
My World Cup predictions include a play on the three-way line, where Netherlands are a +105 betting favorite. I'm also going to break down a couple of my favorite props, and get to my favorite goalscorer.
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β½ Netherlands vs. Japan predictions: Pick to win & player prop bets
See all of our experts' soccer picks across the best World Cup betting sites.
| π° Best bets | π Best odds | βοΈ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands moneyline | +105 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 0.53u |
| Netherlands to have most shots on target | -138 via bet365 | 0.75u -> 0.54u |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu 2+ fouls | +100 via bet365 | 0.75u -> 0.75u |
β½ Who will win Netherlands vs. Japan?
Japan is in for a bit of a rough one due to a couple of key injuries that will really hamper what the squad would like to do offensively. The absence of Kaoru Mitoma and Wataru EndΕ is huge for what Japan, not known for its offensive prowess, will be capable of.
The Japanese side will likely adopt its usual 3-4-2-1 shape and apply its usual high press. But that type of shape can open things up, and the likes of Gapko, Depay, and Reijnders will be too much to handle and will eventually break through.
Score prediction: Netherlands 1, Japan 0
💵 My best bet: Netherlands to have the most shots on target (-138)
Japan's shape opens things up because, as their four pressing midfielders move aggressively forward it opens big gaps up behind them, and players like De Jong and Gravenberch are capable of taking advantage. With three center-backs holding the back line and stretched wide, runs into the box open up. Japan's shape can suffocate opponents, but when they break through - which Netherlands will do tonight - it opens things up to shots on target.
π¦Ά Who will score in Netherlands vs. Japan?
Follow all of our expert soccer betting analysis for the 2026 World Cup.
Cody Gakpo, FW, Netherlands (+230)
Gapko will be the focal point down the left-hand side, where Japan will be most easily attacked, and he cuts inside very well to position the ball on his right (dominant) foot. With three centerbacks patrolling the backline, his movements will be hard to stay on top of the entire game. While he had a relatively quiet season for Liverpool (seven goals in 32 starts), he's been a regular on the Netherlands scoresheet.
Best Netherlands vs. Japan goal-scorer pick: Cody Gakpo (+230 via FanDuel)
💰️ More World Cup predictions today
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π₯ Will both teams score in Netherlands vs. Japan?
The Japanese side is missing two of their most prolific offensive players, but their defense is intact. Over the last 19 games, spanning WCQ and friendlies, they've conceded only three goals, including 1-0 shutouts of Scotland and England in March.
While the Netherlands backline does cause me some concern, whether either team can actually be relied on to produce much offense in what looks like a cagey, hard-fought group opener has me siding with the plus-money side of this prop.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: No (+100 via DraftKings)
💡 How to bet on both teams to score (BTTS)
Our soccer expert Jeremy Vernon broke down how to bet BTTS at the World Cup with a full history and statistical analysis of the popular prop betting market across more than 7,000 matches.
π Netherlands vs. Japan odds
We're tracking the latest World Cup odds and favorites to win this year's tournament.
πΊ How to watch Netherlands vs. Japan
- Date: Sunday, June 14
- Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
- TV: FOX & Telemundo
- Streaming: Peacock
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