LAFC vs. Queretaro Prediction: Today's Leagues Cup Best Bets & Picks (Aug. 12)
Every so often you handicap a game that it seems like the sportsbooks have every market covered very comfortably. This is one of those games. But my LAFC vs. Queretaro prediction digs through the stats and numbers, playstyles and motivations, to find my best bets for tonight's Leagues Cup tie.
LAFC is a massive -350 moneyline betting favorite on the three-way line, with the draw listed at +550 and Querétaro at +700. The must-win game for the home side gets started at 10:30 p.m. ET from BMO Stadium in Los Angeles, streaming on Apple TV.
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⚽ LAFC vs. Queretaro predictions: Pick to win & player prop bets
See all of our experts' soccer picks.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| LAFC to win to NIL | +125 via bet365 | 0.25u -> 0.31u |
| LAFC Over 6.5 corners | +100 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 0.5u |
| Son anytime goal scorer | -138 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 0.36u |
⚽ Who will win LAFC vs. Queretaro?
This should be a pretty comfortable LAFC win, if such a thing exists in pro sports. LAFC has the motivation edge by a mile, absolutely needing a result with Queretaro eliminated.
Queretaro hasn't had much success in the Leagues Cup, suffering a 2-0 loss at FC Dallas and a 3-0 loss at the Seattle Sounders, and while their Liga MX record looks better than that through three games (2-0-1), the underlying stats leave cause for concern. They've allowed over 18 shots per game and just under 2 xGA/game in domestic play; the five goals allowed and 6.5 SOT allowed per game in the Leagues Cup haven't come as a surprise.
We've seen last night a number of Liga MX sides putting up a fight despite being eliminated, but I don't think that Queretaro could hang with LAFC even if they were playing full force.
Score prediction: LAFC 2, Queretaro 0
💵 My best bet: LAFC Over 6.5 corners
I think it's easy to see that despite this being my "best bet" it's still just a half-unit play - there are enough scenarios we don't reach this number because LAFC simply doesn't need to push too much.
Queretaro plays an incredibly low-possession game (under 40% in domestic play, and a 40% and 47% mark in two Leagues Cup games), so LAFC should have plenty of possession. I anticipate we'll see an uptick from LAFC's 13-ish shots per game in domestic play, given how poor Queretaro has been defensively, so there should be plenty of chances for crosses and shots to be deflected out of play for a corner.
While the hosts have only had four corners through their first two games, in MLS play they average closer to six. Let's push the boundaries in a game they need to win.
🦶 Who will score in LAFC vs. Queretaro?
Heung-Min Son, F, LAFC (-138)
Son has been held off the scoresheet in the Leagues Cup, but tonight that changes in a game where LAFC should pile up two or three goals. The opportunity will certainly be there.
The South Korean strikers' numbers have been lower this season across the board, but he's still taking plenty of shots (3.70/game in MLS) and hitting target more than once per game. Queretaro's defensive lapses have been plentiful, and Seattle's striker picked up a goal when they played. While Denis Bouanga is likely to also pick one up for LAFC tonight, his -225 price is enough to scare anyone away from taking him.
Son scored in four of the last five MLS games before the break (and in the MLS all-star game) as he rounds into form. He'll get going tonight when they need him the most.
LAFC vs. Queretaro goal-scorer pick: Heung-Min Son (-138)
🥅 Will both teams score in LAFC vs. Queretaro?
Queretaro hasn't had a super easy path through here, and that's exactly why they've mustered zero goals so far in the tournament. Seattle, Dallas, and now LAFC are all pretty decent defensive sides. Queretaro failed to drum up even 1 xG of offense against the Sounders, and that's a similar playout to what I expect tonight.
LAFC needs the win, will get out to a league and dominate possession against the Liga MX side. There are better ways to attack this instead of bettting the BTTS - No (-110), such as dabbling into the LAFC to win to nil at +125.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: No (-110 via bet365)
📊 LAFC vs. Queretaro odds
📺 How to watch LAFC vs. Queretaro
- Date: Wednesday, Aug. 12
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Location: BMO Stadium (Los Angeles)
- TV: Apple TV
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