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Early 4 Nations Face-Off Predictions & Odds 2025: Favorite To Win, Best Tournament Props

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: February 10, 2025 12:48 PM EST • 4 min 5 sec read.

We offer our early 4 Nations Face-Off predictions.
Pictured: Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon controls the puck. Photo by Ron Chenoy via Imagn Images.

Hockey fans, starved for nearly a decade of seeing the best players on the international stage, should be fired up about this tournament: the 4 Nationals Face-Off.

And with the Super Bowl clued up, we can shift more of our focus to hockey. 

The best-on-best international hockey is finally back, featuring Canada, Finland, Sweden, and the USA. The puck drops on festivities on Feb. 12, running through Feb. 20 in Montreal and Boston, while the NHL takes a break.

Our 4 Nations Face-Off predictions focus on picking the tournament winner while analyzing who has the best chance of scoring the most goals and posting the most points.

4 Nations Face-Off predictions

  • 4 Nations Face-Off favorite pick: Canada to win (+175 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • 4 Nations Face-Off prop pick: Nathan MacKinnon most goals (+650 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • 4 Nations Face-Off prop pick: Connor McDavid most points (+250 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our new player props odds tool can help you find the best odds on contender you wish to back!

4 Nations Face-Off odds

TeamOdds (FanDuel)Implied probabilityProfit on $10 bet
🥇 USA+14540.82%$14.50
🥈 Canada+15539.22%$15.50
🥉 Sweden+43018.87%$43
📉 Finland+9509.52%$95

Early picks to win 4 Nations Face-Off

4 Nations Face-Off favorite pick: Canada 

Best odds: +175 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 36.36%

When the dust settles, this tournament should be a two-horse race between Canada and the USA. That's not taking anything away from Sweden, but the North American foes are the 4 Nations Face-Off odds co-favorites for several key reasons.

While Canada might not be quite as fresh-faced and youthfully exuberant as its neighbors to the south, it has more Stanley Cup winners and best-on-best international experience. Just seven of 23 Canadians on the roster haven't sipped from the Holy Grail. 

Compare that to the Americans, whose roster consists of just three Stanley Cup winners (Matthew Tkachuk, Jake Guentzel, and Jack Eichel). While I'm not suggesting that will be the decisive factor, I'll take that championship pedigree advantage every time. Quinn Hughes has also been ruled out of the tournament with an undisclosed injury. 

In addition, Connor McDavid, one of the seven Canadians without a Cup, came within a goal of having a bejewelled ring fitted. 

Look no further than the two captains. Crosby to Auston Matthews in terms of team silverware — both at the international and NHL level — is like comparing Patrick Mahomes to Justin Herbert. There are concerns regarding Crosby and Mitch Marner's health, but neither camp has disseminated further troubling news.

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Canada can overcome goaltending disadvantage 

Admittedly, Canada is severely outmatched between the pipes.

Connor Hellebuyck, the runaway Vezina Trophy odds front-runner, is having a career year, which is saying something. However, he has crumbled throughout his career in the most meaningful games. While I don't think it will happen in this tournament, history is not on his side.

At this point, Jordan Binnington is Canada's 4 Nations Face-Off starting goaltender odds favorite. At least he's won a Cup. The Red, White, and Blue also have a slightly superior defensive contingent, especially with Alexander Pietrangelo sidelined.

However, Canada has Nathan MacKinnon and McDavid, who've won three of the last four MVP awards and, aside from Leon Draisaitl, are the two non-goaltender Hart Trophy odds front-runners. 

TD Garden in Boston is hosting the final, one more potential impeding factor for Canada. That said, if Canada makes the final, We the North fans will parade there in droves, diluting significantly the Americans' home-ice advantage. 

4 Nations Face-Off prop pick: Nathan MacKinnon most goals 

Best odds: +650 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 13.33%

We don't know the line combinations yet, but that shouldn't matter as far as MacKinnon is concerned. The Colorado Avalanche bull is one of the best in the game at gaining separation and firing on goal.

He had the second-most shots on goal in 2022-23 (366), the most last season (405), and is tied for the second-most in the current campaign. 

He lit the lamp 51 times last season, which is a career-best. And while his goal-scoring production has dropped this season, MacKinnon represents a perfect candidate over a week-long tournament.

Auston Matthews is the more natural goal-scorer, but MacKinnon is a freak of nature who will probably lift his level an additional three or four notches as he did in the Avs' 2022 Stanley Cup run. 

DraftKings offers the most competitive price from our best sports betting apps, and a winning $10 bet will profit $65.

4 Nations Face-Off prop pick: Connor McDavid most points

Best odds: +250 via Sportsbook | Implied probability: 28.57%

The only thing I don't love about this bet is the odds. McDavid is suiting up in his first best-on-best tournament. Then again, considering this is the first of such tournaments in eight years, most players are. Regardless, McDavid is on a different planet than most elite players the 4 Nations Face-Off will feature. 

Once the lines have been confirmed, consider backing one of his linemates as the tournament's top goal-scorer (in addition to the MacKinnon pick, of course).

McDavid has the second-most points per game this season, trailing only Nikita Kucherov, who won't feature. Plus, he has 37 points in the last 19 games against Hellebuyck and his Winnipeg Jets. 

A winning $10 bet will profit $25.

4 Nations Face-Off FAQs

Who is the favorite for the 4 Nations Face-Off?

Canada and the USA are 4 Nations Face-Off co-favorites, with odds of +175. Those odds imply a 36.36% win probability, according to our odds calculator. 

When is the 4 Nations Face-Off?

The 4 Nations Face-Off runs from Feb. 12 to Feb. 20 and takes place at Montreal's Bell Centre and Boston's TD Garden. 

Where is the 4 Nations Face-Off final?

The 4 Nations Face-Off final will take place on Feb. 20 at Boston's TD Garden. 

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.