🏒 Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction & Odds: Game 7 NHL Picks Today, May 3
The lone Game 7 in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is set between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning tonight. Puck drop starts at 6 p.m. ET from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa (TNT, truTV, HBOMax).
Oddsmakers are bullish on the Lightning to defend home ice, laying -167 moneyline odds. The total is available at 5.5 and 5.0, with a lot of juice on under 5.5 at -188 odds.
My Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction includes a moneyline wager, a total, and a correct score prediction at +1500 odds. I've also found a player prop in the total points betting market.
🏒 Canadiens vs. Lightning picks & odds today: May 3
See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Canadiens Moneyline (+136 via DraftKings) | 1u → 1.36u | Montreal has won two of three road games at Benchmark International Arena in this series. |
| Under 5.0 (+114 via FanDuel) | 1u → 1.14u | Under 5.0 has either won or pushed in five straight games. |
| Ivan Demidov Under 0.5 points (-125 via DraftKings) | 1u → .80u | Held without a point in five consecutive starts. |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 3.3 units
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🏆 Who will win Canadiens vs. Lightning?
Tampa Bay posted a gritty 1-0 overtime win on the road to keep their season alive in Game 6. Now the Lightning return home, where they're short -167 betting favorites.
We've seen Montreal log two road wins already in this series. Goaltender Jakub Dobes has been phenomenal, while the Canadiens' depth has helped them stay balanced in the offensive zone.
The public has placed 62% of its bets on the Lightning at a short price. I'm taking the contrarian route and betting on Montreal to win a third road game as underdogs in Game 7 tonight.
Score prediction: Canadiens 2, Lightning 1
💰 Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction & best bet
Canadiens ML (+136)
Montreal is 8-2 straight up in its last 10 road games. In Game 6, the Canadiens were virtually a pick'em at -105 odds. Now, we're getting a much better number on their moneyline for Game 7 at +136 odds.
The Canadiens have only lost six games in their last 20 matchups. Aside from a Game 6 shutout, Montreal's offense has scored at least two goals against Andrei Vasilevskiy in this series.
There's simply too much value on Montreal to win tonight. Go to DraftKings and bet on the Canadiens moneyline at +136 odds to upset the Lightning in Game 7.
🔥 Best Canadiens vs. Lightning player prop bet
Ivan Demidov Under 0.5 points (-125)
While I'm confident Montreal wins Game 7, I don't expect production to come from Ivan Demidov. The 20-year-old forward skates on the Canadiens' third attack line and top power-play unit, yet he's been held without a point in five straight starts.
Demidov had 19 goals and 62 points during the regular season, so his production isn't tied to a lack of talent. He's been shut down by Tampa Bay's stout defense, plus there's the skill of Vasilevskiy, a former Vezina Trophy winner.
Demidov logged an assist during Montreal's 4-3 overtime win in Game 1. Although he's been firing shots on goal, Demidov has yet to secure another point for the Canadiens this series.
His average time on ice has dipped under 18 minutes during most of this series. Let's keep fading Demidov in the total points player prop market at -125 odds on DraftKings.
🚀 Canadiens vs. Lightning same-game parlay
This has been the tightest first-round series. Expect another physical bout with minimal scoring in Game 7, and the Canadiens will win their third road game of this series to advance.
Head to FanDuel to place one unit on a two-leg Canadiens vs. Lightning same-game parlay at +372 odds.
💵 Canadiens vs. Lightning SGP picks
- Canadiens Moneyline (+136)
- Under 5.0 (+100)
Best odds: +372 via FanDuel (1u -> 3.72u)
💵 My betting record for NHL picks
All NHL picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since April 1.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-32-2 | +9.53 units ✅ | +18.2% ✅ |
| Game picks | 8-10 | +2.27 units ✅ | +15.2% ✅ |
| Player props | 6-8 | -2.51 units ❌ | -17.9% ❌ |
| Parlays | 5-9 | +8.60 units ✅ | +90.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Canadiens vs. Lightning
Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.
I'm allocating 4.25 total units on Game 7 between the Canadiens and Lightning tonight. Oddsmakers and the public are disrespecting Montreal with +136 moneyline odds, despite the Canadiens already winning two road games in this series.
Jakub Dobes is a problem for Tampa Bay's offense. Despite the Lightning boasting more veterans and top-tier talent, Montreal is willing to match their physical style, and the team benefits from its talented rookie netminder.
I'm betting under 5.0 at even odds. In a high-stakes elimination game, expect nerves to be flowing and limited scoring chances to occur. Montreal will grind out a third road win to post an upset over the Lightning. But Demidov won't contribute much, and I'm fading him.
📊 Live Canadiens vs. Lightning odds: Game 7
The total has been bouncing between 5.0 and 5.5 at most of the best sports betting sites. The lines for the moneyline betting market have shifted though, moving in the Canadiens' direction since opening at -167. Now Tampa Bay's moneyline is down to -162 odds.
Right now 63% of bets placed are on the Lightning's moneyline, while 70% of wagers are also on Under 5.5 or 5.0. Montreal has covered +1.5 in every game played this series, which is why the Canadiens are catching 68% of +1.5 puck line wagers.
📈 Canadiens vs. Lightning betting trends
| Canadiens | Statistic | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| 51-25-12 | W-L record | 53-26-9 |
| 51-37 | ATS record | 39-49 |
| 46-39-3 | O/U record | 41-42-5 |
| 2-3 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
🚑 Canadiens vs. Lightning injuries
📺 How to watch Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 7
- Date: Sunday, May 3
- Puck drop: 6 p.m. ET
- Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, Fla.)
- TV: TNT, truTV
- Streaming: HBO Max
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