Calder Trophy Odds 2026: Does Anyone Have a Chance of Catching Matthew Schaefer?

With a stranglehold on the Calder Trophy odds, the question most people have is whether anyone can prevent Matthew Schaefer from winning rookie of the year? 

The New York Islanders' teenager made his impression felt immediately upon entering the NHL, scoring at least a point in his first six games. So, has the 18-year-old all but wrapped up the Calder Trophy, or are we in for some twists and turns in the final third of the regular season? 

🛑 Can anyone prevent Matthew Schaefer from winning rookie of the year?

If you're old enough to remember the days when the Magic 8 Ball was popular, which Schaefer is not, you'll recall the "outlook not so good" response. That's how I feel about everyone else's chances of winning the Calder Trophy. 

While unlikely, anything can happen with a third of the season remaining. Only two players other than Schaefer, Demidov, and Sennecke, have an implied probability over 9%. Those receiving the fourth-shortest Calder Trophy odds have a measly 0.66% chance of winning. 

Here is the rather abbreviated list of those who can make things interesting down the stretch. 

Ivan Demidov (Montreal Canadiens)

Pre-season betting favorite Ivan Demidov has trailed the front-runner for most of the season, cast permanently under the Schaefer's giant shadow. 

The Montreal Canadiens forward leads all rookies in points, with 46 (12 goals, 34 assists). He's scoring at the highest clip, too, averaging 0.81 points per game. The 20-year-old has 34 assists, eight more than the Anaheim Ducks' Beckett Sennecke. He is currently fourth on the all-time Habs' list of top-scoring rookie seasons, chasing Guy Lafleur's franchise record of 64. 

His best odds stand at +950, which represent a 9.52% probability. 

Beckett Sennecke (Anaheim Ducks)

Sennecke is the second-leading rookie scorer, with 44 points, two behind Demidov. Sennecke is one of the influential newcomers on an Anaheim team that is loaded with top-tier youth talent. 

The 20-year-old has 18 goals, tied with Montreal's Oliver Kapanen for first. Sennecke has the second-most assists (26) and is scoring at 0.79 points per game, the second-best clip. 

As is the case on the scoring leaderboard, Sennecke is trading slightly behind Demidov, with best odds of +1000 across the best sports betting sites. 

🏆 Calder Trophy odds 2026

The Calder Trophy odds are updated in real time. 

🤷 Why is Schaefer the runaway Calder Trophy odds favorite? 

Schaefer's 16 goals are the second-most for an 18-year-old defenseman in a rookie campaign. Only Phil Housley, who scored 17 in 1982-83, scored more. It's pretty safe to assume Schaefer will eclipse that mark. 

He trails Sennecke and Kapanen by two goals, even more impressive as a blueliner. Schaefer is third in rookie scoring with 39 points and leads all rookies with 14 power-play points. 

He's also on top with four game-winning goals, one more than the St. Louis Blues' Jimmy Snuggerud and the Colorado Avalanche's Gavin Brindley. 

While his stats are impressive, it's his overall influence and impact on proceedings on the Island that place him a level above. He averages just over 24 minutes (24:05) of ice time, almost four minutes more than the Calgary Flames' Yan Kuznetsov. 

Schaefer logs three minutes more than any teammate, showcasing how much they rely on the 18-year-old. 

👊 How Schaefer's first season compares to former rookie-of-the year defensemen

Schaefer is looking to become part of an elite club by joining Lane Hutson, Moritz Seider, and Cale Makar as the only defensemen to win rookie of the year since 2015. But how do his stats and trajectory compare with the aforementioned triumvirate?

Schaefer's goals, assists, and points are projections based on his current scoring rate. Cale Makar's rookie season occurred during the 2019-20 season, which was shortened slightly due to the outbreak of Covid-19.