Top NFL Week 9 Opening Lines and Picks

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The 2021 NFL season has been profitable thus far, and Week 9 offers four opening lines that are must plays. We've scoured the trends and matchups and found the best picks.

Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season kicks off this Thursday night as the New York Jets travel to face the Indianapolis Colts. The prime-time games this week are a mixed bag in terms of the top-end talent featured, with the Tennessee Titans and the Los Angeles Rams facing off Sunday night, then the Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday. But all those contests could have a huge playoff impact.

The possible transfer of star power after the trade deadline Tuesday will bring new storylines too. So far, Von Miller is in Los Angeles, and Adrian Peterson is taking over for Derrick Henry in Tennessee.

We've turned in a profitable season thus far, and the midpoint is a good time to recalibrate. The slew of injuries and surprising results must be accounted for in projections. We're confident the best opportunities have been identified below in the opening lines.

Here's a look at my top-four picks centered around early Week 9 odds (odds via DraftKings, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers Opening Line and Pick

Date/Time: Sunday, November 7 at 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Opening Line: Over/Under 41

New England is coming off two needed wins against the lowly Jets and the sliding Chargers. It's clear the Patriots are doing an excellent job of picking apart opponents' weaknesses after scoring 71 points over those matchups. There's a reason Josh McDaniels is considered one of the NFL's finest offensive coordinators.

Meanwhile, Carolina is tumbling downward, and the team may be forced to play P.J. Walker at quarterback over the struggling and injured Sam Darnold. Walker is the better playmaker, and his presence could lead to a shootout. Both offenses have been gaining some steam recently, making the Over easy to love on this low total.

PICK: Over 41 (-110) ????

Minnesota Vikings vs. Baltimore Ravens Opening Line and Pick

Date/Time: Sunday, November 7 at 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: M&T bank stadium, Baltimore, MD

Opening Line: Ravens -5

It's usually assumed that an offense with a $35 million-per-year quarterback, superstar receiver Justin Jefferson, running back Dalvin Cook, and stud receiver Adam Thielen would be a top-eight unit each year. Minnesota's offense has produced efficiently and gains yards like a top-eight group, but it's stuck at 18th in scoring this season. Tough outings against the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, and Dallas Cowboys over the past month have exposed the Vikings' red-zone issues.

Baltimore's defense is vulnerable to giving up big plays. But the team was preparing over its bye week, and the Ravens hold significant matchup advantages against a Vikings defense that playing poorly. The Ravens should re-establish their run game this week and plow through Minnesota at home.

PICK: Ravens -5 (-115) ????

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers Opening Line and Pick

Date/Time: Sunday, November 7 at 4:25 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.

Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5

A tough first loss to the undermanned Green Bay Packers last Thursday night may have left oddsmakers too cold on the Arizona Cardinals. They hold a slim advantage over a struggling 49ers team that's covered just twice over seven games. The Cardinals have also won seven of their last 10 matchups against the 49ers, despite the latter club being closer to playoff contention over that span.

Arizona is being undervalued by at least half a point considering its success against the 49ers, how much San Francisco is struggling this year, and Arizona getting an extra few days of rest before this matchup. This is one of my biggest plays of Week 9.

PICK: Cardinals -2.5 (-115) ????

Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Opening Line and Pick

Date/Time: Sunday, November 7 at 4:25 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Opening Line: Chiefs (-120)

Editor's note: This was written prior to news that Aaron Rodgers will miss the Week 9 games due to COVID.

Offensive playmakers for both teams are dealing with COVID-19 issues, leaving the Packers' pass-catcher depth chart bare—especially after tight end Robert Tonyan tore his ACL— and the Chiefs have yet to get anything from Josh Gordon.

Kansas City needs its stars to drop fewer balls, too. Even if they do, the Chiefs look broken with a bad defense and inconsistent offensive game plan.

Green Bay is simply a better team right now. Kansas City must prove the club can get out of its own way before we trust the Chiefs again. Their 2-6 ATS record after a horrible ATS mark in 2020 speaks for itself.

PICK: Packers moneyline (+125) ???

Picks made 11/2/2021 at 12:16 a.m. ET