2024 Super Bowl Bets to Make Now: Will Mahomes Win His Third Super Bowl MVP?

The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will clash in Super Bowl 58 at Allegiant Stadium, and we offer our 2024 Super Bowl bets to make now based on the best NFL odds.

The much-anticipated 2024 Super Bowl showdown is a rematch from Super Bowl LIV, pitting the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs against the favorite San Francisco 49ers. Both teams clinched narrow victories in their conference championships. In their last Super Bowl meeting, the Chiefs emerged victorious with a 31-20 score. However, the dynamics have shifted, and this time around, the 49ers are favored in the Super Bowl odds.

Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs are making their fourth Super Bowl appearance in the last five seasons. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 0-2 in their last two Super Bowl appearances and look for their first title since beating the San Diego Chargers 49-26 in Super Bowl XXIX.

Sports betting analyst Ben Fawkes reminded us that Nevada sportsbooks have lost money on the Super Bowl just twice since 1991, so bet responsibly and fade the public often with your Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and Super Bowl predictions.

Here are our best Super Bowl bets to make early (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Super Bowl bets to make now

• Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP (+140 via Caesars)  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• George Kittle Under 52.5 receiving yards (-110 via FanDuel)  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Chiefs ML (+100 via bet365)  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Chiefs-49ers Over 47.5 (-110 via Caesars)  ⭐⭐⭐

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Early Super Bowl player props

Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP (+140 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sometimes when prognosticating NFL games of this magnitude, who wins often comes down to who has the best quarterback and head coach. In this matchup, the answer is far and away Kansas City, as Patrick Mahomes has more regular season wins, playoff wins, AFC titles, passing touchdowns, fewer interceptions, and a better quarterback rating than Tom Brady did in his first six seasons, as Adam Schefter pointed out. In addition, Andy Reid is coaching in his fifth Super Bowl, and his teams have a great track record off a bye week, going 28-5 SU including the postseason.

As such, it's not at all surprising to see Mahomes as the consensus favorite by the Super Bowl MVP odds.

Oddsmakers at our best Super Bowl betting sites essentially have this as a coin-flip game, as no sportsbook has a point spread greater than San Francisco -1.5. Thus, since we expect the Chiefs to win, we are getting great value on Mahomes’ Super Bowl MVP odds, since he was MVP of their first two Super Bowl victories, and quarterbacks have taken home the MVP award in 10 of the previous 14 Super Bowls.

Caesars offers the best Mahomes Super Bowl MVP odds, as DraftKings and BetMGM are on the low end of the market at +120, while FanDuel offers +130 odds.

Our Phil Wood also favors Mahomes in his Super Bowl MVP predictions.

George Kittle Under 52.5 receiving yards (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

George Kittle was held catchless in the first half of Sunday’s NFC Championship victory over the Detroit Lions, and finished with just two receptions on three targets for 27 yards. That stat line is an issue considering the game script called for a pass-heavy attack in the second half with the Niners down 17 points, and Kittle has now gone under this projected yardage total in two of the last three weeks. Still, we're seeing an elevated Super Bowl player props line for Kittle.

Optimists will say he has exceeded 53 yards receiving in five of the previous seven weeks, but he faces a Chiefs defense that entered the AFC Championship ranked 11th in receiving yards allowed and fifth in yards per reception to tight ends since Week 10.

All of our other NFL prop betting sites have an O/U of 48.5 for Kittle’s receiving yards, and while we would still take the Under as a three-star play at that number, we are heading to FanDuel for the much better line and have more confidence at the higher O/U as a four-star play.

Super Bowl game picks

Chiefs ML (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Since we expect Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP, it is only natural that we expect Kansas City to win the game outright, and are thus foregoing the +1.5 points we can get at FanDuel and bet365 (albeit at a price of -114 and -115 odds, respectively). The Chiefs opened as consensus +108 moneyline underdogs, and we are taking advantage of the plus-money odds that we can still get at all of our best sports betting sites, as the early line movement indicates there is a good chance this line will jump the fence by kickoff.

After the 17-10 win over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship, Mahomes is now 10-1-1 ATS and 9-3 SU as an underdog in his career. And per NFL senior researcher Tony Holzman-Escareno, this is the fourth Super Bowl rematch of head coaches all time, and those that won the first matchup also won the second.

Chiefs-49ers Over 47.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes is on fire entering this matchup, as heading into the AFC Championship Game, he had three consecutive playoff starts with zero interceptions and zero sacks taken, becoming the first quarterback to do so since the AFL-NFL merger. While the Ravens sacked Mahomes twice, they still did not force an interception after leading the league in takeaways this season, and the Chiefs have averaged 27 points per game in their last four playoff games (all wins).

San Francisco’s defense has been shaky at best on its run to the Super Bowl, allowing 442 yards and 6.1 yards per play to the Lions, and 5.3 yards per play to the Green Bay Packers, while also allowing the Packers to convert seven of 13 third-down opportunities. However, we also trust in a 49ers offense that finished the regular season first in offensive DVOA. For all the winning Mahomes has done in his career, 49ers Brock Purdy is still 21-5 SU as a starting quarterback, and with weather not a factor in a domed environment in Las Vegas, this sets up to be a track meet.

DraftKings is the only one of our top sportsbooks that is juiced slightly to the Over of 47.5 (-112), so we are placing this three-star wager at any of our other best sportsbooks that offer the standard -110 juice on either side of the total.

NFL best bets made Monday at 8:36 a.m. ET.

Here are our best Super Bowl betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)