Steelers vs. Colts NFL Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions for Saturday

Check out our Saturday NFL player props for the Week 15 matchup between the Steelers and Colts.

Last updated: December 16, 2023 1:38 PM EST • 6 min read

The Pittsburgh Steelers face the Indianapolis Colts in a critical Week 15 matchup for AFC playoff positioning on the line, and we have you covered with our top Steelers vs. Colts NFL player props for Saturday based on the best NFL odds at our best sportsbooks.

The second game of Saturday's NFL tripleheader isn't exactly teeming with star power as the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) and Indianapolis Colts (7-6) face off in Week 15. Nonetheless, there's value in the player props market at the NFL prop betting sites.

Both of these teams enter this week in a must-win spot amid a six-way tie for the final two spots in the AFC playoff picture. They're both coming off Week 14 losses, which exposed the weakest points and potential fixes for these offenses.

In addition to our NFL Week 15 predictions and NFL Week 15 player props and to accompany our Steelers vs. Colts prediction and Week 15 NFL player props, here are our best Steelers vs. Colts NFL player props for Saturday (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Steelers vs. Colts NFL player props: Saturday

Zack Moss longest rush Under 14.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As I wrote about in my preview of this game, I'd expect the Colts to take care of business at home, which is typically a good sign for any team's starting running back. But Moss isn't a typical starter - and that isn't a compliment.

While Moss ranks 14th among qualified backs in yards per attempt (4.3), he ranks dead last in rushing attempts per broken tackle (57.7), having shed just three tackles on 173 total rushes. He's been even worse since reclaiming the starting job in Week 13, as his 2.2 yards per carry in that stretch rank second-worst among all NFL starters.

Volume isn't everything for Moss, who had 19 carries in Week 13 and gained five or fewer yards on all of them. In his last two starts, he has exactly one rush of 10 yards or more, and he's tallied just one carry of 15-plus yards in the last five weeks combined - with seven such runs in 12 games overall.

He'll have plenty of chances in another spot start on Saturday, but I wouldn't expect it to amount to much against a Steelers defense that has firmed up as of late.

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Jaylen Warren Over 46.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We're seeing a clear discount at the NFL prop betting sites on this total after a quiet showing for Warren in Week 14 when he finished with his fewest rushing yards (11) since Week 1. He had cleared this total in each of his previous five games, though, and he's a solid bet to do it again on Saturday.

In many ways, Warren is the antithesis of Moss as a rusher: he leads the NFL in yards per carry (5.6) and attempts per broken tackle (5.5), and he ranks second among all backs in yards before contact (3.6), yards after contact (2.1), and PFF's elusive rating (min. 50 attempts).

His uber-efficient play forced the Steelers to give him a bigger workload, and he's quite literally run with it. The second-year back has seen at least nine carries in five of his last six games, and he's averaged 85.2 rushing yards in those games while clearing this prop total in all five contests.

The lone outlier was last week, when he fell back down to earth (seven carries, 11 yards) against a stout New England Patriots front. So did running mate Najee Harris (12 carries, 29 yards), who saw his fewest carries since Week 8 and was limited in practice this week with a lingering knee injury.

Given Harris' health and Warren's steady play, I'd expect the latter to get more opportunity against a Colts defense allowing the third-most rushing yards (147 YPG) since Week 7.

Our Esten McLaren is backing Warren with his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Saturday.

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Pat Freiermuth Over 30.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

We haven't seen much from Freiermuth this season besides a 120-yard outburst in Week 12. I wouldn't expect a repeat of that in Week 15, but this is still a spot worth targeting for the Steelers' tight end at the NFL prop betting sites.

The Colts' secondary has started to find its stride, but this zone-heavy defense is still very exploitable over the middle of the field. To that effect, Indianapolis ranks in the bottom 10 in targets (106), receptions (72), and yards (733) surrendered to opposing tight ends through 14 weeks.

Freiermuth has eclipsed this total just twice this season, but he's seen 23 targets over the last three weeks and tied the team lead in targets (7) in last week's loss. It's only a matter of time before Freiermuth pops off like he did in Cincinnati, and with this prop dealing as high as 33.5 at FanDuel, we're getting some market value with this bet365 number, too.

Steelers-Colts NFL player props for Saturday made Friday at 3:15 p.m. ET

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.