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NFL Player Props & Best Bets Week 15: Can Beckham Jr. Stay Hot vs. Jaguars?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 17, 2023 1:48 PM EST • 4 min 60 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

The NFL schedule is spread out over the weekend, including three games on Saturday, and we offer our best NFL player props and best bets for Week 15 based on the best NFL odds from the best sports betting apps.  

The ‘dogs were barking during Week 14, and it was the most successful week of the campaign for NFL underdogs. Underdogs went 10-4-1 against the spread while winning eight of the 15 games outright and profiting 9.5 units on the moneyline, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing. Four of the top six moneyline favorites lost outright, which shook up the playoff standings in each conference.

Are there more upsets in store for this week?  

To accompany our NFL predictions for Week 15 and NFL Week 15 prop picks, here are our NFL player props and best bets and NFL picks for Week 15 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Week 15

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Week 15 NFL schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

NFL player props for Week 15

Odell Beckham Jr. Over 37.5 receiving yards vs. Jaguars (-110 via BetMGM, DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Week 15 Sunday Night Football matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens is a strength vs. strength battle, as Baltimore’s 157.1 rushing yards per game leads the NFL, while Jacksonville’s rush defense is fourth at 92.2 rushing yards per contest allowed. There's still an avenue for a big day on the ground from Lamar Jackson, as the Jaguars allowed 47 rushing yards to C.J. Stroud in Week 12.

However, we're bullish on the strides that Jackson has made as a passer with the best receiving corps he's ever been given, and we expect Odell Beckham Jr. to keep flourishing.

Beckham maintained a 21% target percentage and averaged 27.0 yards per game while scoring zero touchdowns over his first six outings of 2023. But now Beckham’s target share has increased to 38% over the last five games, the highest in the NFL among all players who have run a minimum of 50 routes during that span.

Beckham has turned that into an average of 68.6 receiving yards per game and three touchdowns. We expect him to continue that momentum, especially if Baltimore is experiencing more trouble than usual moving the ball on the ground against Jacksonville’s stout front. 

Bettors get plenty of choices from the best sportsbooks for this wager, as only Caesars charges more in juice (-115) for a total of 37.5 receiving yards.

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James Cook anytime touchdown scorer vs. Cowboys (+180 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

James Cook has been one of the most significant beneficiaries of the Buffalo Bills’ move to replace offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey with Joe Brady. After scoring a touchdown in just two of the first 10 games of the season, Cook has found the end zone in two of three matchups with Brady as the play-caller. He's also scored 19-plus fantasy points twice in those three weeks, finishing as a top-12 running back in all three. 

The volume is there for Cook, with 20-plus touches in all three games under Brady, and he's the first Bills running back with 100-plus scrimmage yards in four straight games since LeSean McCoy in 2016. Buffalo’s leaky offensive line is facing a Dallas Cowboys pass rush that pressures quarterbacks on a league-best 39% of dropbacks. That makes Cook just as likely to find the end zone through the air as on the ground if Josh Allen is forced into quick check-downs to avoid pressure.

We're getting great value with these +180 odds at FanDuel, as DraftKings is as low as +110.

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D.K. Metcalf anytime touchdown scorer vs. Eagles (+187 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

D.K. Metcalf’s anytime touchdown scorer odds aren't widely available due to the uncertain status of quarterback Geno Smith. But we can still take advantage of these generous odds at bet365 now, as the number will likely shorten if Smith is available. And there's reason to have full confidence in Metcalf finding the end zone even if Drew Lock is under center.

Metcalf has logged four receiving touchdowns over the last two games, and he now faces an Eagles defense that allows the most fantasy points per game and most receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Six different pass-catchers have produced 100-plus yards against the Eagles, and Metcalf is getting a dominant 23% target share and 43% of the team’s air yards.

Philadelphia entered Week 14 in the bottom three in passer rating and passing touchdowns allowed since Week 8. Then Dak Prescott turned in his seventh consecutive game with multiple passing touchdowns and his sixth during that span with a passer rating of 99.4 or higher.

This is a four-star play at our best sportsbooks, as the Eagles rank 28th or worse in touchdown rate (6.1%) and receptions (9.2) to outside receivers in 2023, according to Sharp Football Analysis.

NFL game picks for Week 15

Steelers +1.5 vs. Colts (-110 via BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Saturday afternoon matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts comes with massive playoff implications in the AFC, as the clubs are two of six 7-6 teams vying for wild-card spots. We would not put anyone off backing Pittsburgh’s best moneyline odds at Caesars (+110), the only one of our best sports betting sites offering better than +105. However, we're content getting the 1.5 extra points as long as it's at the standard juice of -110.

Pittsburgh received encouraging news that T.J. Watt should be healthy, as he practiced in full on Wednesday after suffering a concussion in Week 14. Watt has been on the field for 86% of the team's defensive snaps in 2023, and the Steelers' defense has allowed a 38 QBR and a 38% third-down percentage with him on the field. The Steelers have given up a 64 QBR and a 63% third-down percentage without him, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. 

Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew has thrown an interception in three of the team's last four games, and he should struggle against an opportunistic Steelers defense with 21 takeaways, including an NFL-best seven in the red zone. Pittsburgh has not covered the spread in any of its five road games during 2023, but we expect the team to end that drought against Indianapolis.

NFL best bets made 12/14/2023 at 4:06 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.