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NFL Player Props Week 15: Predictions, Picks & Odds for Sunday

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: December 18, 2023 11:35 AM EST • 7 min 25 sec read.

D'Andre Swift of the Philadelphia Eagles runs with the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images/AFP.

We've started our Week 15 NFL player props by going 2-1 after cashing our best Saturday prop, and we'll roll on to Sunday while using the best NFL odds from our leading NFL prop betting sites.

We had a rough start last week with a 2-4 record on our Week 14 NFL player props, a situation that might have appeared different if not for a first-half QB injury and a penalty negating a goal-to-go touchdown (rolls eyes dramatically).

Thursday Night Football started us off with a 1-1 record as the Las Vegas Raiders beat up on the Los Angeles Chargers. The defeat was the straw that broke the camel's back for head coach Brandon Staley, who was relieved of his job on Friday.

Then came the first Saturday games of the 2023 NFL season, headlined by backup quarterbacks and a big day from Minnesota Vikings running back Ty Chandler - who helped us cash our lone Saturday ticket with ease to bring our Week 15 record to 2-1 entering Sunday.

We also hit two of our three picks on Sunday. That included Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely coming through in a significant way on Sunday Night Football while recording 70 receiving yards to sail past his total of 32.5.

Now to cap off the week, the Philadelphia Eagles will try to stay alive in their hunt for the NFC's top seed when they travel to face the floundering Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football. And we'll be hoping one of their running backs can find paydirt.

In addition to our NFL Week 15 predictions, let's dive in with our best NFL player props for Week 15 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL player props for Week 15

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NFL player props for Week 15: Monday Night Football

D'Andre Swift to score a touchdown (+190 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

This game is a bit of a mess to handicap given the quarterback uncertainty on both sides. Even so, this wager jumps off the screen as a potential value play.

Swift is the clear top back for the Philadelphia Eagles' high-powered attack, pacing the team in attempts (178) and rushing yards (822) with double-digit carries in 11 of his last 12 games. Yet he's scored just five times all year, as QB Jalen Hurts (12 rushing TDs) regularly poaches goal-line carries.

That could change this time around with Hurts battling an illness that has worsened throughout the week. Whether or not he suits up on Monday, I'd expect Hurts - who is already dealing with a lingering knee injury - to cede some high-value carries to the Eagles' explosive young back.

Swift has already seen 29 red-zone carries this season, to rank second on the team behind only Hurts (35). Now he faces a Seattle Seahawks defense that ranks 26th in red-zone TD percentage (65%) and has allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing running backs - tied for the second-most in the NFL.

This prop is trading as short as +105 at BetMGM, and FanDuel is the only shop dealing longer than +150 odds among our best sportsbooks. At nearly 2/1 odds, we'll gladly take a shot on Swift snapping his three-game scoreless drought.

NFL player props for Week 15: Sunday Night Football

Isaiah Likely Over 32.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Even after two big games for the Baltimore Ravens' breakout star, tight end Isaiah Likely continues to catch low prop totals despite a clear change in role and opportunity.

Through the first 11 weeks, the second-year tight end averaged a mere 8.1 yards per game in a backup role. In two games since starter Mark Andrews went down, Likely has combined for 123 yards and ranks second on the team in receptions (nine) and yards per catch (13.7).

And yet, he's still dealing as a tertiary option in this offense - even as he faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense allowing 58.7 yards per game to opposing tight ends, the eighth-most in the NFL. It took only one quarter for Likely to cash this bet last week, and I wouldn't be surprised if this one hits early, too.

See all of our Sunday Night Football picks for Ravens vs. Jaguars:

NFL player props for Week 15: Sunday

Jonathan Mingo Under 37.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

Mingo has had an up-and-down rookie season after the Carolina Panthers drafted him 39th overall in April. And things won't get any easier on Sunday.

The Mississippi product is averaging just 31.4 yards per game in his debut campaign, and he ranks dead last among qualified receivers in success rate (32.9%) and second-to-last in catch rate (47.4%). Last week, he hauled in just two of nine targets for 22 yards and posted the worst PFF grade (50.7) of any Carolina receiver.

That marked his fourth game in the last six weeks with fewer than 30 receiving yards, a total he's cleared just four times in 12 games. Now he'll draw the attention of Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell, who ranks eighth in catch rate allowed (57.1%) and first in forced incompletion rate (23%) among corners with at least 450 snaps.

Mingo finished with just two catches for 17 yards in his first meeting with Atlanta back in Week 1. Don't expect a revival in Week 15.

Saquon Barkley Over 66.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌

There is so much going for this particular wager: precedent, motivation, matchup, and a compelling number itself.

Frankly, it's a little curious that we're getting such a low total on Barkley's rushing yardage. He's rushed for at least 66 yards in seven of eight games since returning from injury in Week 6, and he's averaging 83.2 rushing yards since QB Tommy DeVito made his first appearance in Week 8.

Last week, with his team coming off a bye, Barkley enjoyed a game-high 20 carries for 86 yards - his highest marks since DeVito became the starter - but fumbled on his team's second-to-last drive. Even after his team rallied, you could sense his deep frustration in the postgame interview, when he vowed to redeem himself the following week.

Well, here comes that chance. The Saints rank 26th in rushing yards allowed per game (131.5), and they've allowed an NFL-worst 156.5 rushing yards per game over their last eight games - allowing five runners to eclipse 65 yards in that stretch. I like Barkley's chances of joining that list on Sunday.

NFL player props for Week 15: Saturday

Ty Chandler Over 58.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

The Minnesota Vikings are running out of running backs, having already lost Cam Akers (Achilles) and Alexander Mattison (ankle) entering Week 15. That said, Chandler might quietly be the best of the three, and he'll have plenty of chances to prove it on Saturday.

After Mattison went down in Week 14, Chandler accounted for nine of Minnesota's 12 running back carries to finish with 12 overall. It was his third game with double-digit carries over the last four weeks, and he's averaged 51 yards in those games even as he split carries with Mattison.

Chandler won't lack for opportunity on Saturday, especially with QB Nick Mullens making his first start of the year. In limited action last week, Mullens completed nine of 13 passes for 83 yards, but his bad-throw percentage (30.8%) ranks second-worst by any passer this season.

This is also a favorable matchup against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (127.2) and 30th in yards per attempt (4.7). Combine that with a healthy volume, and Chandler should clear this total on Saturday.

NFL player props for Week 15: Thursday Night Football

Michael Mayer longest reception Over 11.5 (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

If you followed our NFL player props last week, you may shudder at the sight of another "longest play" prop, and that's OK. Me too. Still, I simply couldn't ignore this bet given the favorable matchup Mayer is facing.

The Chargers have allowed an opposing tight end to record at least one reception of 12-plus yards in eight of nine games since these teams last met in Week 4. That includes Week 14, when second-year tight end Lucas Krull - who has spent all season on the Denver Broncos' practice squad - was left wide open for a 35-yard grab, the first catch of his career.

Mayer has cleared this mark in six of his last nine contests (which doesn't include an 11-yard catch in Week 7), and he faces a defense that ranks fifth-worst in receptions (74) and receiving yards (784) allowed to opposing tight ends. He should get loose for at least one chunk play on Thursday.

Our Esten McLaren has more on Mayer with his anytime touchdown scorer prediction for TNF.

Easton Stick Over 19.5 rushing yards (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ❌

My favorite Chargers bet this week was originally Over 5.5 receptions for Keenan Allen, who has since been ruled out of the game. And I don't trust any of the Bolts' other pass-catchers - including Austin Ekeler, whose receptions total has been jacked up to 4.5 (a number he still might cash), even with concerns about his playing time.

Instead, I'm backing Los Angeles' fill-in quarterback and trusting his legs during Stick's first pro start since getting drafted way back in 2019.

Stick may sound like a CPU-generated player in Madden, but he made quite the name for himself at North Dakota State, where the signal-caller ended his career as the winningest QB in FCS history (49-3). While he set school records in passing yards (8,693) and touchdowns (88), he was also prolific on the ground. Stick established the Missouri Valley record for quarterback rushing yards (2,523) and rushing touchdowns (41).

We didn't see Stick take off in limited action during Week 14, but he averaged 45.9 rushing yards across 55 games in college. He even showed off the jets during the preseason, averaging 15.3 rushing yards per game despite playing a quarter or two on average.

Those stats don't mean he'll cash this Over, but I'd imagine the Chargers will try to make Stick comfortable while shifting the pocket and freeing up easier throws on the move. That's especially wise against a Raiders defense with one elite pass-rusher (Maxx Crosby), but a middling group otherwise.

Especially on a short week, we should be able to count on Stick getting creative on his own beyond any called runs that Kellen Moore might draw up. I also bet Stick to score an anytime TD at +1100, and while the market has caught onto that play as kickoff nears, I'd still play it small at +550 via BetMGM.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is an award-winning sports writer, reporter, and editor with nearly a decade of experience in the industry, with previous stops at theScore, Action Network, Forbes, and ESPN before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's written about sports betting for the last five years, with a specialty in NFL, NBA, MLB, and collegiate futures markets and a weakness for novelty props and betting on the eventual runner-up. He's also an avid fantasy sports manager and commissioner and runs a sports card business on the side. He's a fiercely proud Oregon native and UNC alumnus, and he can't seem to stop betting on Ben Simmons to win MVP.