UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC 302 - Makhachev vs. Poirier
Before UFC 302 graces New Jersey's Prudential Center, check out our UFC predictions and expert picks for Saturday based on the odds from our best UFC betting sites.
UFC 302 promises an absolute banger for a main event, with Islam Makhachev defending his lightweight strap against former interim champ Dustin Poirier.
The lightweight king has defended the throne on two occasions, both against Alexander Volkanovski, and he heads to Newark with 12 straight wins to his credit.
Poirier, by comparison, has alternated wins and losses over his last four but earned his shot in March with a KO victory over Benoit Saint-Denis.
Before that, though, former middleweight champ Sean Strickland aims to get back in the win column at Paulo Costa’s expense.
The California native most recently lost the crown to Dricus du Plessis by split decision at UFC 297 in January, while Costa was last seen falling to another ex-champ in Robert Whittaker on points at UFC 298 this past February.
Here are our UFC predictions for Saturday's UFC 302 card in Newark, N.J. (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UFC predictions & picks
- Holland by submission vs. Oleksiejczuk (+260 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Makhachev by submission vs. Poirier (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Dawson vs. Solecki ends by submission (+230 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Strickland vs. Costa goes the distance (+122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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UFC 302 expert picks
Holland by submission vs. Oleksiejczuk ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Given Michal Oleksiejczuk’s deficiencies on the mat and Kevin Holland’s talent for snatching necks, the value on a tapout win for the latter is surprisingly generous and too compelling to pass up.
Indeed, Oleksiejczuk has been outwrestled on several occasions, dropping five of seven pro defeats and all but one of five UFC losses by submission. Meanwhile, Holland is a prolific finisher with seven career tapouts to his name.
Both men are game on the feet, and given Holland’s seven-inch edge in reach, I expect he’ll bring the action to the mat via knockdown over the takedown. But once the pair are no longer upright, it won’t be a matter of if, but when Holland’s wiry limbs put the squeeze on Oleksiejczuk for the tap.
Best odds: +260 via FanDuel
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Makhachev by submission vs. Poirier ⭐⭐⭐⭐
A straight W for the heavily favored lightweight king may not offer much of a payout, but the lines on a 12th career submission are far more interesting. Not only has Makhachev finished 11 opponents by tapout as a pro - with five of those coming over his current win streak - he also scores on a solid 60% of his takedown attempts.
Poirier, by comparison, is a respectable grappler, but he’s been stopped in six of eight career defeats and was dominated by Makhachev’s similarly skilled teammate, Khabib Nurmagomedov, back in 2019.
Tasked with a seasoned, technically proficient striker in Poirier, Makhachev should replicate his cornerman’s performance against the challenger, drag Poirier to the mat, and have his way with him before securing a fight-ending choke.
I broke this fight down further in my Makhachev vs. Poirier prediction for tonight's main event.
Best odds: +100 via bet365
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Dawson vs. Solecki ends by submission ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In yet another submission-themed pick, I see a pair of grapplers in Grant Dawson and Joe Solecki settling their clash via their preferred method of victory.
Dawson and Solecki have tapped 13 of 20 and nine of 13 career conquests, respectively, and while grappler vs. grappler matchups can sometimes prove tepid affairs, these two should spend their bout in their mutual wheelhouse, as neither man puts in much work on the feet.
Both lightweights average fewer than three significant strikes per minute, meaning they’ll be itching to get things to the mat, after which each man will be vying to secure back control in pursuit of a rear-naked choke.
Best odds: +230 via FanDuel
Strickland vs. Costa goes the distance ⭐⭐⭐
Those interested in round props for this middleweight bout will find decent value in betting the Over on 1.5 rounds, but a proper bet on a judges’ decision offers a more enticing payout.
Strickland gets a fast-starting, heavy-hitting dance partner in Costa, so it behooves him to ride his edge in output and cardio to victory, meaning Saturday’s co-main event will likely require the judges’ participation.
The ex-champ has gone the distance in eight of 11 since moving up from welterweight, while Costa has made it to the scorecards in three straight and four of his last five. The latter does his best work in the first stanza or two, so look for Strickland to weather an early storm before opening up with his combinations from the second round onward.
However, Costa packs a major wallop even when he’s fading, and I see Strickland respecting it with a methodical showing that will require the full 15.
Best odds: +122 via FanDuel
UFC 302 info
- When: Saturday, June 1
- Where: Prudential Center, Newark, N.J.
- How to watch: ESPN+, PPV (main card begins at 10 p.m. ET)
UFC best bets made Saturday at 12:18 a.m. ET.
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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