Patriots vs. Jets TNF Parlay: Thursday Night Football SGP Odds
I know what you’re thinking. The Patriots-Jets game on Amazon Prime might just be ugly enough to get Al Michaels to retire on the spot.
But we’re pushing back against the obvious narrative in our Patriots vs. Jets TNF parlay based on our best Thursday Night Football odds.
With a game total below 40 and Aaron Rodgers getting more comfortable by the week, we’re parlaying a trio of Over bets for this week’s same-game parlay, which can accompany our Patriots vs. Jets prediction.
Patriots vs. Jets parlay: Thursday Night Football
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Over 38.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Garrett Wilson Over 65.5 receiving yards (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 66.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +460 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 17.86%
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SGP predictions for Patriots vs. Jets
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Over 38.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While anyone who has ever watched a Thursday Night Football game generally knows to expect a horror show when two teams like these ones do battle, we think this sub-40 total is low enough for some chaos to allow the Over to hit.
Three of the four games involving the Jets and Patriots so far this year have sailed over this 38.5-point total, a line that's consistent across our best sports betting sites aside from the 39-point total at BetMGM.
Both defenses suffer from weaknesses. The Jets are allowing 155 rushing yards per game, while the Patriots were violated through the air last week when the Seattle Seahawks' Geno Smith recorded 327 passing yards.
We like Aaron Rodgers to find his footing in this matchup. But hey, if he doesn’t, turnovers could also lead to short fields, rendering 38.5 too low of a number to pass up.
Garrett Wilson Over 65.5 receiving yards (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Seahawks seemed to unlock something against the Patriots' defense that Aaron Rodgers and his top target can exploit on Thursday night.
Passing frenzy?
Smith found two top receivers for massive games against the Pats, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf both exceeding 100 receiving yards last week. Though Thursday night’s low total of 38.5 points suggest offense will come at a premium, 65.5 yards feels like a makeable line for Garrett Wilson.
The marquee receiver in New York's offense has sniffed the line in two straight contests with outputs of 57 and 60 yards. It’s time for him to be featured more heavily against a secondary that was torched a week ago.
BetMGM and Caesars offer the Wilson receiving total at 66.5 yards, which is higher than at our other best sportsbooks. DraftKings lists the total at 65.5 yards, but with heavy -125 odds on the Over.
We’re eyeing FanDuel’s 64.5-yard line with standard -110 odds on the Over, but it’ll come down to our final leg of the parlay to determine where we play it.
Meanwhile, Connor Cooper is projecting a significant receiving night from another Jets pass-catcher in his Breece Hall TNF player prop bets.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 66.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Although his backfield mate Antonio Gibson led the way with an efficient 96 yards on 11 carries in Week 2, Rhamondre Stevenson is the top dog in New England's running game.
Run the rock!
Stevenson has twice logged north of 20 carries this season, producing rushing totals of 125 and 81 yards in those games. The tailback now gets a very attainable target for his rushing line against a Jets defense that Jordan Mason gashed for 147 yards in the team's season opener.
DraftKings is featuring Stevenson’s rushing line at 66.5 yards. That matches the total at Caesars and BetMGM. FanDuel is a shade more friendly at 64.5 yards, but its overall parlay odds are lacking at +403. DraftKings is posting a couple of lines that are more difficult for the players to reach, but it’s a fair tradeoff given the +460 odds (the best across the board) on this SGP at DK.
A winning $10 wager on this parlay at DraftKings would lead to a $46.00 profit as part of your NFL Week 3 predictions.
The Stevenson wager is one Gary Pearson supports too in his Patriots vs. Jets TNF prop bets. And Rodrigo Villagomez thinks you can cash in on Stevenson even more in his first touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Patriots vs. Jets odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Patriots vs. Jets
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- How to watch: Amazon Prime Video
- Weather: 79 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, winds 9-mph NE
- Favorite: Jets (-260 via FanDuel)
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