Patriots vs. Jets Prediction Tonight: Thursday Night Football Odds & TNF Picks
The New York Jets host the rival New England Patriots tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video, as we offer our Jets vs. Patriots prediction for Thursday Night Football.
- The latest Thursday Night Football odds have the Jets favored by up to 6.5 points to beat the Patriots in this AFC East showdown.
- New York remains a contender by the Super Bowl odds ahead of tonight's Week 3 opener.
- The Patriots have won 15 of the last 16 in this rivalry, and we like their chances to cover the spread to kick off our NFL Week 3 predictions.
Along with our Patriots vs. Jets player props, here are our best Jets vs. Patriots predictions, picks, and odds for tonight's matchup.
Patriots vs. Jets odds movement: Thursday Night Football
When our best sports betting sites first started offering odds for this game last week, the Jets were dealing as 7-point favorites against the AFC East rivals.
That number has since dropped by a point in the hours ahead of kickoff, though you can still bet Patriots +6.5 at -115 odds across three of our five best sportsbooks.
The bigger movement has come on the total, which opened as high as 40 last week but has dropped to a consensus 38.5 with DraftKings and FanDuel both offering the Under at -108 odds.
Best Patriots vs. Jets picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Patriots +6.5 (-108 via DraftKings) vs. Jets ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Garrett Wilson Over 63.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Patriots vs. Jets against the spread prediction: Thursday Night Football
Patriots to cover the spread: +6.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐
This pick has nothing to do with New England’s past dominance of New York since so much personnel has changed over the years.
Instead, it's tied to how the Patriots have responded to first-year head coach Jerod Mayo, and how rusty the Jets' offense has looked through two weeks.
New York’s offense is far from in midseason form
Aaron Rodgers, who's the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds favorite, is coming off his first two-touchdown game since November 2022. In the process, the Jets improved to 9-0 when scoring 23-plus points since the start of the 2022 season.
However, last week’s 24-17 win over the Tennessee Titans marked just the fourth time since the start of last campaign that the Jets have scored 24-plus points. They also still only amassed 265 total yards and 16 first downs on 11 drives.
New York’s offense should reach new heights when vertical threat Mike Williams works his way into better game shape. But he's been given just one target through two outings, and the Jets won't consistently put pressure on opposing defenses if running back Breece Hall continues to be second on the team in targets.
Our Philip Wood dives further into the Jets quarterback's outlook tonight in his Aaron Rodgers player prop bets.
New England has pounded the rock
New England’s formula for starting 1-1 (and coming an overtime loss away from beginning the season with back-to-back upsets) has been clear: Run the football and play solid defense.
That's why Gary Pearson is leaning heavily on New England's rushing offense in his Patriots vs. Jets TNF prop bets, as is Brenden Schaeffer in his Patriots vs. Jets TNF parlay.
The Patriots have run for 170-plus yards in consecutive matchups to start a season for the first time since 1974. As a result of that conservative yet effective play-calling, they have yet to commit a turnover through two games. That comes after registering just one turnover-free game all of last season.
The Jets' scheduling disadvantage
New York’s early-season schedule has been taxing to say the least, as this is its third game in 11 days. That's become even tougher when factoring in being on the West Coast in San Francisco to start the season.
New York also endured a short week to formulate a game plan for how it will overcome two significant defensive injuries. Linebacker Jermaine Johnson is out for the season with a torn Achilles, and fellow linebacker C.J. Mosley is questionable with a toe injury suffered last week.
The market is in unison with a 6.5-point spread, but DraftKings is the only one charging less than the standard -110 juice to back the underdogs. A winning $10 wager would pay out $19.26.
Gary Pearson is also backing the Patriots in his NFL ATS picks for Week 3.
Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%
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Patriots vs. Jets player prop
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Garrett Wilson Over 63.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I nailed last week’s four-star play for Garrett Wilson to go under 70.5 receiving yards (he finished with 57) amid a tough matchup opposite Titans cornerback L’Jarius Sneed.
However, New England does boast a cornerback as talented in man or shadow coverage as Sneed, and the Patriots haven't exactly been limiting No. 1 wide receivers to this point.
Ja’Marr Chase caught all six of his targets for 62 yards in Week 1, and the Pats permitted D.K. Metcalf to go off for 10 catches totaling 129 yards and a touchdown last week.
This four-star play would turn into my most confident five-star wager if the weather forecast (70% chance of precipitation) changes closer to kickoff.
As it stands, Wilson is clearly Rodgers’ most trusted target through two games, and he even went over this projected total five times in the first nine outings last season in spite of New York’s messy quarterback situation.
This line has come up some since the beginning of the week, as Caesars opened with an O/U of 61.5. But there are still plenty of 64.5 totals out there, including at FanDuel and DraftKings. Plus, the juice to back the Over at 63.5 is as high as -125 through Caesars.
So the best price and number is at BetMGM, where a winning $10 wager would net $9.09 in profit.
Elsewhere, Connor Cooper thinks another Jets pass-catcher is well-positioned for success in his Breece Hall TNF player prop bets.
We also break down the best touchdown scorer bets for tonight with our anytime touchdown scorer predictions for TNF and our first touchdown scorer predictions for TNF.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Patriots vs. Jets odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Patriots vs. Jets
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
- How to watch: Amazon Prime Video
- Weather: 70 degrees, 70% chance of precipitation, 13-mph north winds
- Favorite: Jets (-275 via BetMGM)
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