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Wide Receiver Jahan Dotson of the Washington Commanders stands on the sidelines during the preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.
Wide Receiver Jahan Dotson of the Washington Commanders stands on the sidelines during the preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on August 27, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. Photo by Todd Olszewski/Getty Images via AFP.

There is a new favorite for the NFL's 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year, and he plays for the Washington Commanders. In order to determine which players represent value picks at their current odds, we examine the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year futures market.

Unlike the NFL MVP, the Offensive Rookie of the Year is not necessarily a quarterback award. Over the last 10 seasons, only four quarterbacks have taken home the honors. Most recently was No. 6 overall pick Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers in 2020.

In placing futures bets, you must always consider two factors: will this player actually win the market, and are their odds only going to become shorter from here on out, relative to the early number? If the answer is yes to both of these questions, then you should consider investing in that specific player.

In this article, we analyze the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year futures odds in search of value picks.

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Jahan Dotson+800+900+800+900
George Pickens+800+1000+1000+900
Brian Robinson Jr.+1000+1300+1200+1200
Drake London+1000+1000+750+1000
Chris Olave+1200+1100+1000+1000
Dameon Pierce+1200+1000+1200+1000
Kenny Pickett+1200+1800+1200+1400
Skyy Moore+1200+1400+2000+1200
Romeo Doubs+1400+1200+1300+1100
Treylon Burks+1400+1400+1300+1800

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Best Bet

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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Picks: Favorites

Dotson, WR, Commanders (+900 via Caesars)

It appears that catching two touchdowns in your first NFL game will make you the favorite to win the OROY award. The pricing for Washington Commanders receiver Jahan Dotson is a complete overreaction to the two touchdowns he caught in Week 1. Dotson did not see more targets than any of the other wide receivers, as he saw only five targets as opposed to the eight Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets saw. I am not saying that Dotson isn't a good player, but he shouldn't have become the favorite after his performance in Week 1.

Pickens, WR, Steelers (+1000 via PointsBet)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been excellent at drafting wide receivers, and it appears they hit with another one in George Pickens. During the preseason, the Pickens bandwagon filled up quickly, resulting in a dramatic reduction in his odds to win this award. I am not interested in getting anywhere near this price with Pickens at +1000, primarily because Mitch Trubisky is his quarterback, and there are plenty of other weapons on the Steelers' roster. There are a number of top-tier wide receivers in this rookie class, and this market is very fluid.

London, WR, Falcons (+1000 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

When the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds were released, Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London had the shortest odds among the players at his position primarily due to the fact that he was the first wide receiver selected in the NFL draft. London occupies a better position with the Falcons than most of his rookie counterparts, as he is clearly their top wide receiver option. You cannot say the same about anyone else on this list. For me, it is a matter of when, not if, I will place a wager on London. As of now, I am holding out for a number better than +1000. 

Olave, WR, Saints (+1200 via FanDuel)

No matter what you think of New Orleans Saints QB Jameis Winston, he has proven that he is capable of slinging the ball in the NFL and putting up some impressive passing numbers. It is not about winning a Super Bowl with Winston, but rather about getting the ball to Chris Olave. In terms of wide receivers, Olave is the one who catches my attention the most, but I believe we can get a better deal than a +1200 price if we wait a while.

Pierce, RB, Texans (+1200 via Caesars)

Dameon Pierce had a lot of hype heading into Week 1, but it quickly faded as the Houston Texans opted for veteran Rex Burkhead when the game was close. We will have to see if head coach Lovie Smith sticks to his word regarding Pierce's involvement. Despite the fact that Pierce did not have the role we anticipated in Week 1, his pricing did not change. Pierce is still trading at +1200 heading into Week 2.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders (+1300 via Caesars)

Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. was trading at +10000 in the preseason, but is now as low as +1000 via FanDuel despite being shot in the leg in an attempted armed robbery and placed on injured reserve at the beginning of the season. I believe that this line is trying to tell you something, and that is that Washington head coach Ron Rivera likes Robinson even more than we originally anticipated. When I first saw this pricing, I thought it was way off, but if he comes back and gets high volume, as well as a compelling story, he could have a strong case for winning the award. As he continues to miss some games, you should be able to snag a price that is a couple dollars higher than the +1300. 

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Picks: Contenders

Doubs, WR, Packers (+1400 via FanDuel)

There were rumors throughout training camp that Romeo Doubs is Aaron Rodgers' preferred target among the rookie wide receivers for the Green Bay Packers, and after watching them play, I am inclined to believe this narrative. Doubs will most certainly be in the running for OROY if he begins to receive more targets, especially with Rodgers as his quarterback. You should put Doubs on your watchlist and continue to monitor his involvement in the Packers' offense. 

Pickett, QB, Steelers (+1800 via Caesars)

In this market, QB Kenny Pickett opened as a +600 favorite during the offseason, and I fully expected this price to lengthen. With Pickett losing the starting job to Trubisky, we are now seeing Pickett's price point become more accurate. I do not anticipate we will see Pickett start for the Pittsburgh Steelers anytime soon, so I would advise staying away from this bet and allowing the odds to continue to increase.

Burks, WR, Titans (+1800 via DraftKings)

The situation for Treylon Burks is similar to that of London, as he has less competition on his own team for targets than some of the other wide receivers. While I understand the appeal of Burks, the +1800 is not enticing enough for me to consider placing a wager. In the event that Burks' price rises above +2500, I will probably change my position on this matter. 

Watson, WR, Packers (+1800 via PointsBet)

Christian Watson opened with very short odds of +1100 in this market, not because he is necessarily one of the best players in the group, but because he is paired with the reigning two-time MVP. While Watson was expected to receive the majority of the targets left behind by Davante Adams, it is actually his rookie teammate Doubs who is stealing the spotlight now, which has caused Watson's odds to lengthen to +1800. The price point in these markets tends to be affected by dropping wide-open touchdowns as well.

Hall, RB, Jets (+2000 via PointsBet)

There is no doubt that Breece Hall is someone I would like to have in my portfolio for this market. Hall's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield makes it a matter of when and not if I will place a bet on him. I intend to wait out Hall and see how long this price gets before I make an investment. Hall's price has already increased from +900 to +2000 since the market opened.

Moore, WR, Chiefs (+2000 via PointsBet)

Patrick Mahomes has publicly stated that the Kansas City Chiefs offense will distribute the ball and get several different players involved every week. Rookie receiver Skyy Moore will most likely have some big games mixed with some duds, sending his odds on a roller coaster ride throughout the season. For me, Moore is a fade, especially at +2000, since I do not see him receiving the same consistent volume as some of the other wideouts.

Wilson, WR, Jets (+2000 via FanDuel)

Wilson has not received as much attention this season as some of the other wide receivers, which can be seen in the adjustment to his odds. Originally listed at +1000, Wilson is now available at +2000 on FanDuel. In my opinion, Wilson will be a solid player in the NFL, but if I were to back a Jets player for OROY, I would choose Hall as long as their prices remain comparable.

Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (+2000 via Caesars)

Having invested in Isiah Pacheco at +5000 during the preseason, I am pleased to see that he has now been lowered to +2000 after just one game. Although Pacheco posted some impressive stats and appeared to be explosive in Week 1, I would not rush to bet on the adjusted price of +2000. The majority of his carries occurred during garbage time, and he is no longer priced as a backup who might be able to steal the job, as he was at +5000. 

Walker, RB, Seahawks (+3300 via PointsBet)

Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is obsessed with running the ball, which is good for Kenneth Walker III, but he is not even the starter at the moment. A breakout performance by Rashaad Penny at the end of the 2021 season prompted the Seahawks to re-sign him to a one-year contract. Walker must be the starter before I consider investing in him at a +3300 price point. Considering Penny is in the mix and Walker is recovering from an injury, I do not see Walker winning this award. 

Cook, RB, Bills (+5000 via PointsBet)

In this market, what impact does fumbling on your first carry and then sitting on the bench have on your pricing? According to PointsBet, it raises it by 32 dollars! Prior to Week 1, James Cook was trading at +1800, but now is available at a high of +5000 via PointsBet. Cook's +5000 is extremely tempting, but I would like to see his role with the Buffalo Bills in Week 2 before making a decision. 

White, RB, Buccaneers (+5000 via Caesars)

As a result of Rachaad White's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, you should pay close attention to his role in the Buccaneers' offense. Pro Football Focus ranked White as one of the top receiving backs in college football last season. Since Leonard Fournette is the only player blocking his path to a lot of touches in an explosive offense, White is worth monitoring, especially since he is available for +5000.

Willis, QB, Titans (+5000 via Caesars)

Although the Tennessee Titans continue to state that they are committed to QB Ryan Tannehill, this may change if they continue to lose games. There is a possible out for the Titans at the end of this season when it comes to Tannehill's contract, and they may be interested in seeing what they have in Malik Willis ahead of an upcoming draft that will be loaded with talent. I am not interested in +5000, but as he continues to miss weeks, the price should lengthen and provide a worthwhile number ahead of a possible start. 

Williams, WR, Lions (+7500 via PointsBet)

As long as no one separates themselves from the field in this market, Jameson Williams becomes an interesting target. Williams is trading at +7500 only due to an injury that will prevent him from participating in the first several games. Williams' +7500 price point does not reflect his talent, and if he were playing in Week 1, he would be trading around +1400. The longer we go without someone stepping up in this market, the more interested I become in investing in Williams. 

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Picks: Long Shots

Howell, QB, Commanders (+10000 via Caesars)

I would have viewed Sam Howell differently if the Commanders had lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. Once QB Carson Wentz led them to a comeback victory, the interceptions were quickly forgotten. In the event that Wentz struggles or shows any signs of losing his job, I will be placing a bet on Howell. 

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Former Winners

2021Ja'Marr Chase, WRBengals
2020Justin Herbert, QBChargers
2019Kyler Murray, QBCardinals
2018Saquon Barkley, RBGiants
2017Alvin Kamara, RBSaints
2016Dak Prescott, QBCowboys
2015Todd Gurley, RBRams
2014Odell Beckham Jr., WRGiants
2013Eddie Lacy, RBPackers
2012Robert Griffin III, QBWashington
2011Cam Newton, QBPanthers
2010Sam Bradford, QBRams
2009Percy Harvin, WRVikings
2008Matt Ryan, QBFalcons
2007Adrian Peterson, RBVikings

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