NFL Receiving Props 2023: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Our best sports betting apps have offered NFL receiving props ahead of the 2023 season for months, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has evaluated the available markets and shares a collection of picks based on the latest NFL odds.

It’s been a fun initial journey running numbers and checking in on the NFL prop markets. When exploring the passing props and rushing props, there weren’t many brand-name stars presenting value.

That wasn’t the case when examining the receiving props. I was surprised to see a number of elite wide receivers trading at lower-than-expected totals and without a hefty vig.

Here’s a look at my initial NFL receiving props picks and the odds available across our best NFL betting sites.

Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!

NFL most receiving yards odds 2023

(NFL most receiving yards odds as of Sept. 1)

NFL most receiving touchdowns odds 2023

(NFL most receiving touchdowns odds as of Sept. 1)

NFL receiving props 2023: Picks

• A.J. Brown Over 1,050 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Christian Watson Over 799.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Justin Jefferson Over 1,249.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• CeeDee Lamb Over 1,075.5 receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Chris Godwin Over 800.5 receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• DeAndre Hopkins Over 850.5 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
• Treylon Burks Over 685.5 receiving yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Calvin Ridley Over 825.5 receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL receiving props 2023: Handicap breakdown

Here’s a quick breakdown of my handicapping process:

• Create custom projections for receiving yards and receiving touchdowns
• Sim my projections 20,000 times through my model to determine the probability of an outcome
• Convert the probability to odds
• Compare my odds with the numbers across our best live betting sites

NFL receiving props 2023: Predictions

A.J. Brown Over 1,050 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

This bet checks all the boxes.

There’s significant room for Brown to regress from his career-high 1,496 receiving yards in 2023 and still clear this benchmark. And of course, the outlier low total DraftKings is hanging only sweetens the deal.

The Philadelphia Eagles offense' proved to be the perfect landing spot for Brown, and he capitalized on his A+ athleticism during Year 1 in Philly.

I'm projecting Brown to finish with 1,157 receiving yards, which is a 22.7% downtick from his 2022 total.

Placing this bet through DraftKings leads to an immediate edge. I wouldn’t be surprised if that shop moves its total closer to what’s trading across our other best sportsbooks.

Bet $5, Get $150 + $1K Deposit Bonus

Terms and conditions apply.

Claim $150

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Christian Watson Over 799.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

It took some time for Watson to find his way as a pro in 2022 following early-season injuries and inconsistencies. But the North Dakota State standout was a force once he found his footing.

Watson piled up 31 receptions, 523 yards, and seven touchdowns over the final eight games of the 2022 campaign.

I’m not expecting him to show off that All-Pro pace across an entire season. But his explosive size-speed combo should enable him to put together a solid sophomore showing.

The elephant in the room is the Green Bay Packers turning to first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love. But I’m not convinced there’s an enormous dropoff from the version of longtime Packers starter Aaron Rodgers we saw in 2022. After all, the four-time MVP chucked it up for just 6.8 yards per attempt while grading as the 14th-best quarterback, according to Pro Football Focus.

I’ve got Watson projected for 881 receiving yards.

I always find it interesting when a higher total with lower odds presents more expected value, as is the case here with what’s available through BetMGM and DraftKings. Both check out as solid bets. One is just better.

Editor's note: Watson's Over receiving yards total is now set at 849.5 (-110) through BetMGM as of Sept. 1.

Justin Jefferson Over 1,249.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This BetMGM total is wrong, and it won’t last.

Jefferson soared over this benchmark as a rookie in 2020, and his receiving yards have climbed in consecutive years since. In fact, I consider my 1,440 receiving yards projection in 2023 to be incredibly conservative.

The Minnesota Vikings are set for an awkward awakening after going 13-4 in 2022. Their defense might be even worse than the unit that allowed 25.1 points per game, the third-most in the NFL.

As a result, I’m expecting quarterback Kirk Cousins to be airing it out as much as ever, and for Jefferson to top 150 targets for a third consecutive year.

I don’t expect to find another receiving-yards total this offseason with a positive expected value as high as what’s attached to this prop through BetMGM. My numbers are right in line with the FanDuel offering, which is a 150-yard difference.

Editor's note: Justin Jefferson's receiving yards total is set at 1399.5 (-110) via BetMGM as of Sept. 1.

CeeDee Lamb Over 1075.5 receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

It’ll take an injury for Lamb to fall short of this receiving-yards total.

He’s annually improved statistically since debuting in 2020 and the Oklahoma product sits atop the wide receiver depth chart in Big D. Lamb topped this number on just 120 targets in 2021, and last season it was a cakewalk to 1,359 yards on 156 looks.

Lamb also only added 380 receiving yards to his ledger across five games while quarterback Dak Prescott was sidelined last season, and I have him projected for 1,159 receiving yards in 2023.

FanDuel is offering the best value to back the Over, with DraftKings and BetMGM also hanging favorable totals.

Editor’s note: FanDuel has moved the total for CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards to 1100.5 (-112) as of Sept. 1.

Chris Godwin Over 800.5 receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Even with the quarterback uncertainties ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, this is a soft total by my numbers. Plus, Godwin cruised over this number in each of the past five seasons while averaging 1,028.2 receiving yards per.

Additionally, while Godwin has missed time in each of the past four seasons, he has also started double-digit games. As a result, I’m not concerned about his durability.

So, with a set-in-stone role in the passing attack, I’m confident with my projection of 902 receiving yards for Godwin in 2023.

This is another example of the lowest total not providing the best value because of the larger vig. The largest advantage is available through FanDuel despite a slightly higher benchmark to clear.

Win $150 + NBA League Pass 🏀

New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and win $150 in Bonus Bets (within 72 hours).

Claim $150

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

DeAndre Hopkins Over 850.5 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

My numbers show a slight edge in backing Hopkins to go Over 850.5 receiving yards during his first season with the Tennessee Titans. Between multiple injuries and a six-game suspension to start 2022, Hopkins has only played 19 games over the past two years.

That’s why we’re landing a decreased total, and relocating to Tennessee gets the three-time All-Pro in a more favorable offensive environment. He’s also healthy, and elite wide receivers regularly continue to produce high-end numbers into their mid-30s. 

I'm projecting Hopkins to compile 896 receiving yards, and my price for the Over on 850.5 is -131 with a positive expected value of 8% over the -110 number through DraftKings.

Editor’s note: DraftKings doesn’t have a prop available for DeAndre Hopkins’ receiving yards as of Sept. 1. FanDuel has it set at 850.5 (-112).

Treylon Burks Over 685.5 receiving yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Everything went wrong for Burks after being selected 18th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. He was dubbed the A.J. Brown replacement for the Tennessee Titans’ offense and ended up missing six games while lining up for only 377 offensive snaps.

Still, Burks was quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s favorite target during organized team activities in May. That comes after the second-year wideout showed off the athleticism to be a matchup nightmare and problem in space while healthy in 2022.

I'm projecting Burks for 846 receiving yards, so I price the Over on 685.5 at -257 to present a positive expected value of 35% over the -115 line through Caesars.

Editor’s note: Caesars doesn’t have a prop available for Treylon Burks’ receiving yards as of Sept. 1. DraftKings has it set at 725.5 (-110).

Calvin Ridley Over 825.5 receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

It’s fitting to bet on Ridley in his return from a year-long gambling ban. It cost him the entire 2022 season, and he also missed most of 2021.

Still, Ridley doesn’t have a concerning injury history, and he broke out to the tune of 90 receptions for 1,374 yards in his last full season in 2020.

It’s a fresh start again for Ridley, and he's set up for success with the Jacksonville Jaguars coming off a strong season.

I have the first-year Jag projected for 903 receiving yards, so my price for this Over is -136, and we’re landing a positive expected value of 9% with the FanDuel number.

Everything's coming up roses for Ridley during the offseason, too.

Editor’s note: FanDuel has moved Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards total to 950.5 (-112) as of Sept. 1.

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSFULL | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)