2026 NFC Championship Stats & Trends: 25 Key Numbers to Know for Rams vs. Seahawks

History is on the line tonight as the Los Angeles Rams (12-5) face the Seattle Seahawks (14-3) today at 6:30 p.m. ET in the NFC Championship with the winner clinching the final spot in the Super Bowl.

These division rivals have already faced off twice this season, and I dove deep into the NFC Championship stats to find 15 key numbers that could predict the winner of this epic third battle today at Lumen Field in Seattle. Here are some of the best trends and numbers to know to complement our NFL conference championship predictions.

5️⃣ Fast Five: 5 key stats to know for 2026 NFC Championship

See the latest NFL odds and our expert NFL picks for every playoff matchup.

• 81.1% - Combined DVOA for these two teams from the regular season. It's the best combined DVOA - a schedule-adjusted metric used to determine relative team strength across eras - for any playoff matchup since at least 1978 with the other four matchups in the top five featuring a combined DVOA between 68.5% and 70.8%.

• 1 - Total points and yards separating these teams in their two regular-season meetings this year. The Rams took the first matchup with a 21-19 home win in Week 11, while the Seahawks erased a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter of a 38-37 overtime victory in Week 16. Los Angeles combined for 830 total yards in those games; Seattle finished with 829 yards.

• +7 - Turnover differential for the Seahawks across their eight-game winning streak - a massive improvement from their -7 turnover margin in their previous 10 games. They committed four turnovers in its loss to the Rams in Week 11 but hasn't lost a game since, while Los Angeles has dropped two of its last five since that Week 16 loss in Seattle.

• 78 - Combined age for McVay (40) and Macdonald (38), two of the four youngest active head coaches in the NFL. That's tied for the youngest combined age for opposing coaches in the conference championship game in league history. If Macdonald wins, he'd be the fourth-youngest coach to reach the Super Bowl; McVay became the youngest when he led the Rams to the Super Bowl at age 33 in 2019.  

• +191 - Point differential for the Seahawks in the regular season, a franchise record and the best mark by any team in the NFL this year. The Rams ranked second in point differential (+172) and remain the only team to beat Seattle since Oct. 5. Both teams also ranked in the top 10 all time in DVOA as the top two teams in the regular season.

🐏 Rams stats & playoff trends

• 6.2 - Yards per play for the Rams in the regular season, which ranked first in the NFL. Los Angeles also led the league in scoring offense (30.5 PPG) and total offense (6,709 yards) while ranking first in offensive DVOA, pass offense DVOA, and rush offense DVOA, and it was one of two units to score 30-plus points against the Seahawks.

• 46 - Passing touchdowns for Matthew Stafford in the regular season, tied for the seventh-most in a single season in NFL history, with 31 of those touchdown passes coming within 2.5 seconds or less. The Super Bowl MVP odds favorite also led the league in passing yards (4,707) and passing first downs (236) while pacing the field with PFF's best passing grade (91.4) and most "big-time throws" (53) through 19 starts.

• 10 - Career playoff wins for McVay, more than double the amount of any head coach in NFL history before reaching 40 years old. He's currently tied for the 16th-most wins in postseason history and could jump into the top 10 with another win Sunday, while his 6-1 record in playoff games decided by 3 or fewer points is the best mark of all time.

• 473 - Receiving yards for Puka Nacua on snaps after going in motion, the most by any player in a single season since at least 2018. Nakua also led the league with 129 receptions and 107.2 receiving yards per game - a key reason why we'd recommend to bet Nacua for Super Bowl MVP - while teammate Davante Adams paced all receivers in touchdowns (14) and red-zone touchdowns (12).

• 55 - Career game-winning drives for Stafford in the fourth quarter or overtime - 11 more than the next-closest quarterback since he entered the league in 2009. He led the NFL with 13 passing touchdowns and a 119.7 passer rating in the fourth quarter this season, which is why he headlines our NFL QB rankings entering the NFC Championship.

🟢 Seahawks stats & playoff trends

58.5 - Total expected points added by Sam Darnold on play action this season, the highest mark by any quarterback in the NFL. He also led all passers with 0.41 EPA per dropback, while the Rams allowed the league's second-highest completion rate (78%) and yards per attempt (10.9) when defending play action from base personnel - a common approach to defend Seattle's myriad heavy personnel packages.

32.1% - Third-down conversion rate allowed by the Seahawks' defense in the regular season, the lowest mark in the NFL. The Rams converted just 10 of 31 attempts on third down in two matchups against Seattle, which held opponents to a 17.8% conversion rate on third-and-long while posting the 12th-best defensive DVOA in league history and ranking first in scoring defense, points per drive, and EPA per play.

6.8 - Yards per carry for the Seahawks in their Week 16 win over the Rams, their highest mark of the season. Kenneth Walker III rushed for 100 yards in that game and added 116 yards and three touchdowns last week against the San Francisco 49ers to extend Seattle's four-game streak with at least 160 rushing yards, though he'll have to carry the load with fellow rusher Zach Charbonnet ruled out with a season-ending knee injury.

44 - Receptions of at least 15 yards for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the most "explosive catches" by any receiver in a single season over the last two years. JSN finished the regular season with the eighth-most receiving yards in NFL history (1,793) - including a league-best nine games with 100-plus yards to set a franchise record - while combining for 201 receiving yards and a touchdown in two games against the Rams this season.

3 - Touchdowns by kick/punt returner Rashid Shaheed, the most by any player in the NFL this season. All three of his scores have come since the Seahawks acquired him from the New Orleans Saints at the trade deadline - including a touchdown return on the opening kickoff last week against the 49ers - to help Seattle rank second in special teams DVOA.

🇳 NFC Championship stats & series history

57 - Total meetings between these franchises dating back to 1976 with the Seahawks owning a 29-28 record (1-1 postseason) in those 57 previous head-to-head matchups. The Rams have won 12 of 19 meetings since McVay was hired in 2017, including a 2-2 record against Macdonald with all four matchups decided by six or fewer points.

10 - Total wins by the home team in the last 12 NFC Championship matchups, including four straight entering Sunday. McVay's Rams were one of just two road teams to win an NFC title in the last dozen years, beating the New Orleans Saints in 2019, while the Seahawks won back-to-back NFC Championship appearances at home in 2014-15.

4 - Wins by a division champion when facing a division rival in the conference championship round, which has happened just five times since the playoff realignment in 2002 with only one road team emerging victorious. Two of those previous five matchups featured the Seahawks or Rams beating the 49ers - no other division has produced multiple matchups in the conference championship over the last 25 years.

34.3 - Total QBR for Darnold in four career matchups against the Rams under defensive coordinator Chris Shula, compared to a 58.4 QBR against all other teams he's faced multiple times. Darnold has combined for seven interceptions and 16 sacks in those four meetings with a 1-3 record in his time with the Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings.  

4.6 - Yards per attempt for Stafford in these teams' first meeting in Week 11, his worst mark in a single game since he was still with the Detroit Lions in 2018. The Rams responded with 581 total yards and 26 first downs in the Week 16 rematch, the most by any opponent against the Seahawks this season.

💰 NFC Championship betting notes

+7.1 - Average margin of victory over the spread for the Seahawks, who enjoyed the NFL's best ATS record (12-5) during the regular season. Seattle posted a 5-3 ATS record as a home favorite this season but outscored opponents by 15.3 points per game in that spot, which ranked third-best leaguewide and was the best mark in the NFC.

0 - Wins for "dome" teams playing outdoors in the conference championship round in the last 50 seasons. Those teams have combined to post a 0-15 record straight up / 2-13 ATS record in 15 outdoor games, which doesn't include the Cowboys playing at Texas Stadium. Both of the Rams' previous NFC Championship wins under McVay came at home in the dome environment at SoFi Stadium.

15.4 - Average margin of defeat for the five teams coming off an overtime win in the playoffs over the last 10 seasons. Those teams are a combined 0-5 outright and 1-4 ATS after winning an overtime matchup in the previous round - as the Rams did against the Chicago Bears in the divisional round - which extends to 6-13 SU since the playoff realignment in 2002.

68% - Win percentage for home favorites of fewer than seven points in the playoffs over their last 25 tries. Those teams have posted a 19-6 SU / 17-8 ATS record in that stretch, which includes a pair of wins for narrow home favorites in this year's postseason.  

+6000 - Preseason odds for the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl, tied for the longest odds for a potential champion since the 2001 Patriots won it all as preseason long shots. New England was one of just six teams with 25/1 odds or longer entering the year to win the Super Bowl, a list that Seattle is expected to join based on the latest odds.

📊 Live Rams vs. Seahawks odds

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❓ NFC Championship Game FAQs

Who is the NFC Championship Game favorite?

The Seattle Seahawks (-140) are the home favorite in the NFC Championship Game against the Los Angeles Rams (+120) at Lumen Field in Seattle.

When will the 2026 NFC Championship Game be played?

The Rams and Seahawks will face off in the 2026 NFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 25, with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle.

Where will the 2026 NFC Championship Game be played?

The 2026 NFC Championship Game will be played at Lumen Field in Seattle.

How to watch the 2026 NFC Championship Game

The 2026 NFC Championship Game will broadcast live on FOX starting at 6:30 p.m. ET.