NFL MVP Odds After Week 5: Allen Remains Early MVP Favorite; Mayfield, Jones Rise
Despite losing to the New England Patriots, Josh Allen remains the MVP odds favorite, with Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, and Baker Mayfield rounding out the top four on the leaderboard.
All four of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' wins have come via a late comeback, thanks to Mayfield's heroics. His Week 5 comeback victory over the Seattle Seahawks has seen his MVP odds improve from +2200 to +1300 at FanDuel.
Mahomes will face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football, which we covered in our NFL picks.
📊 Live NFL MVP odds 2025
Latest NFL MVP odds for the 2025 season; NFL odds update in real time.
📈 Biggest risers and fallers after Week 5 (Odds via FanDuel)
- Josh Allen is the +125 MVP odds favorite, with his odds decreasing from +100
- Lamar Jackson, who will be out of the lineup until Week 6 at the earliest, saw his MVP odds drop from +900 to +2700 at FanDuel
- Patrick Mahomes (+600) is receiving the second-shortest MVP odds in advance of the Chiefs' MNF tilt against the Jaguars
- Jordan Love (+850) has the third-shortest odds
- Jared Goff's MVP odds shortened marginally (+2000 to +1900) after leading the Detroit Lions to a stress-free, 37-24 win over the Cincinnati Bengals
- After the Los Angeles Chargers suffered their second straight loss, Justin Herbert's MVP odds decreased from +700 to +1600
- Jalen Hurts saw his odds lengthen from +1500 to +2000 after the Philadelphia Eagles' 21-17 defeat to the Denver Broncos
- Daniel Jones is up from +4000 to +2700 after the Indianapolis Colts wiped the floor with the Las Vegas Raiders
- Dak Prescott's MVP odds improved from +10000 to +2500
⛵️ Baker Mayfield leads cardiac crew to comeback victory
Mayfield has led the Buccaneers to a 4-1 record after pulling off his fourth Harry Houdini act of the season.
All of the signal caller's four victories have come via last-gasp comebacks. He's been among the most clutch QBs throughout the season, and I expect his stock to rise when this week's Clutch Factor power rankings are released.
What makes his MVP candidacy even more impressive is that he's had to overcome a litany of injuries to influential offensive players. Mayfield had a decimated offensive line in the first three weeks and managed to erase a late deficit in Seattle despite not having Bucky Irving at his disposal.
The +1300 odds at FanDuel represent a 7.14% implied win probability.
🦁 Daniel Jones' MVP odds ascent continues
Is anyone starting to believe in Jones' MVP credentials? With every passing week, I wonder when the bubble will burst for Jones and his upstart Colts.
That has transitioned from when to if, as Jones' surprising resurgence continues. The Colts had no trouble vanquishing the Raiders at home, and two of Jones' three games at Lucas Oil Stadium have resulted in blowout victories.
The Colts' reinvigorated signal caller had the third-most passing yards entering Week 5, and he added another 212 yards and two touchdowns, giving him six TD passes through five games.
We're almost a third of the way through the season, and his odds have improved from +15000 to +2700 at FanDuel since Week 1. Of the best sports betting sites, Caesars' offers the best value (+4000). Those odds imply a 2.44% win probability.
🏆 NFL MVP odds favorite
🦬 Josh Allen, Bills (+125)
The Bills' Super Bowl odds took a hit after the Patriots ended their unbeaten season. Allen's MVP odds decreased from +100 to +125 after he struggled to find a way past Mike Vrabel's team. Allen finished with 253 passing yards, two TD passes, and one pick, while running for 53 yards.
Allen has thrown two interceptions in the last two games but remains in control of the MVP odds race. His +125 odds imply a 44.44% chance of winning.
🎯 Best long-shot bets to win MVP
Our NFL player prop odds features the latest MVP odds for every player and updates live in real time.
🐏 Matthew Stafford (+1500)
Matthew Stafford deserved better on Thursday Night Football, tossing for 389 yards and three touchdowns in the heartbreaking defeat to the San Francisco 49ers.
⚡️ Justin Herbert (+1600)
Herbert's last two performances are a result of his environment, as his protection has failed him. The Chargers' offensive line has been plagued by several key injuries, resulting in four sacks in the 27-10 loss to the Washington Commanders. If his offensive line doesn't heal soon, Herbert's MVP odds could take a further hit.
🦁 Jared Goff (+1900)
Goff's offense, the fourth-best via DVOA, has scored at least 34 points in four of five games. He has the most TD passes (12) compared to just two interceptions. He's also completing an outrageous 75% of his passes through five weeks.
🦅 Jalen Hurts (+2000)
Hurts had two TD passes and no picks in the loss to the Broncos. The defeat and average performance facilitated a decrease in his MVP odds (+1500 to +2000).
❓ NFL MVP FAQs
Who is the favorite to win NFL MVP?
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen is the MVP odds favorite (+125). Those odds represent an implied probability of 44.44%, according to our odds converter.
When will the 2025-26 NFL MVP be announced?
The 2025-26 NFL MVP will likely be announced on the Thursday ahead of the 2026 Super Bowl at NFL Honors.
Who was the NFL MVP last year?
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen was crowned the NFL MVP for the first time after closing as the betting favorite in the regular season.
Who was the last back-to-back MVP winner?
Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021.
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