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Jaguars-Chiefs Lawrence vs. Mahomes Player Prop Picks, Predictions Divisional Round: Who Wins QB Battle?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: January 21, 2023 7:02 AM EST • 2 min 59 sec read.

Can the Jacksonville Jaguars and quarterback Trevor Lawrence pull off another upset win by topping the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes on Saturday? Read on for our Lawrence vs. Mahomes player prop picks based on the best NFL Odds for the Divisional Round showdown between the Jags and Chiefs.

Trevor Lawrence has followed up a forgettable rookie campaign by leading the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) to an AFC South title and a Wild Card Round victory. Heading into the belly of the beast at Arrowhead, the young buck has nothing to lose and everything to gain on Saturday.

Patrick Mahomes, though, looks to take step one in a playoff journey that he hopes will see his Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) back in the Super Bowl.

Here are our best Lawrence vs. Mahomes player prop picks for the Jaguars vs. Chiefs Divisional Round matchup (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook); pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Jaguars vs. Chiefs picks, Jaguars vs. Chiefs player prop picks, and Jaguars vs. Chiefs same game parlay.

Lawrence vs. Mahomes Player Prop Picks for Division Round

  • Mahomes Over 308.5 Passing Yards (-106 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Mahomes Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-123 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

Lawrence vs. Mahomes Player Props

Mahomes Over 308.5 passing yards vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-106 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Jaguars allow 239.5 passing yards per game, the fifth-most in the NFL. Mahomes cleared this passing line in nine of his last 11 games, including a 331-yard effort against Jacksonville earlier this year. Though the Chiefs could open up a sizable lead in the second half, I don’t believe that would cause Kansas City to downshift into a run-based offense. That simply isn’t Andy Reid’s M.O.

Three of our affiliated sportsbooks offer the Mahomes passing line at 308.5 yards, but Caesars is the only one of the trio to list it with odds as strong as -106. DraftKings and BetMGM place the odds at -115. Over bettors should avoid the 310.5-yard lines at FanDuel and PointsBet.

Editor's note: The best odds available for Mahomes Over 309.5 passing yards as of Saturday afternoon are -106 via Caesars.

Mahomes Under 2.5 passing touchdowns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-123 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes has thrown for three or more touchdown passes in 8-of-17 games this season but has only cleared the bar twice over his last seven contests. The Jaguars allowed 25 passing scores to 14 rushing scores on the year, but I’m expecting Andy Reid to pull out at least one trick play on the goal line to take a score away from Mahomes’ passing ledger.

Caesars offers the most favorable odds on an Under 2.5 passing touchdowns bet at -123. PointsBet is close behind at -125. DraftKings and BetMGM are decent options at -130. Avoid FanDuel’s odds of -148, but if you want to fade this pick, the +112 odds on Over 2.5 at FanDuel are tops on the board. This becomes just a three-star play if the odds inflate beyond -130.

Editor's note: The best odds available for Mahomes Under 2.5 passing touchdowns as of Saturday afternoon are -106 via FanDuel.

Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Though Lawrence has thrown for multiple scores in just eight of his 18 games this season, he’ll have an opportunity to do it against a Chiefs secondary that has allowed a league-most 33 passing touchdowns. Kansas City allowed just 10 rushing touchdowns on the season, tied for the fifth-fewest in the league. With the expectation that Lawrence will be playing from behind, I expect the sophomore gunslinger to air it out, in and around the red zone.

FanDuel lists Over 1.5 passing touchdowns for Lawrence with relatively attractive -118 odds. BetMGM’s -125 listing on the prop is at least passable in comparison. Avoid DraftKings (-140), Caesars (-133) and PointsBet (-130) for an Over bet on this prop as the odds aren’t nearly as competitive.

Editor's note: The best odds available for Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns as of Saturday afternoon are -113 via FanDuel.

Lawrence vs. Mahomes player prop picks made 01/20/2023 at 2:10 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.