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Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Prop Picks, Predictions: Best Bets to Begin Divisional Round

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 21, 2023 10:35 AM EST • 3 min 13 sec read.

With the highest Over/Under total of the Divisional Round games this weekend, and two star quarterbacks leading their respective teams, the Jacksonville Jaguars-Kansas City Chiefs game projects to be a high-scoring affair. Here are our top player prop picks for the showdown based on our best NFL odds.

The Jaguars made history as the second team ever to reach the playoffs after starting 3-7 or worse. In addition, they were the second team to win a division title after finishing the previous season with the worst record in the NFL. Thus, it was only fitting that Jacksonville completed the third-biggest comeback in NFL playoff history (27 points) in its wild-card win over the Chargers.

Jacksonville returns to Arrowhead for the second time this season, as the Chiefs beat them 27-17 in Week 10. Now, the Jaguars have the daunting task of beating Kansas City off a bye, as Andy Reid-led teams are 28-5 in his coaching career after a bye week (including playoffs).

Here are our best Jaguars vs. Chiefs Divisional Round player prop picks (odds via PointsBet, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Jaguars vs. Chiefs picks, Jaguars vs. Chiefs same game parlay, Trevor Lawrence vs. Patrick Mahomes prop picks.

Player Prop Picks for Jaguars vs. Chiefs

  • Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-115 via PointsBet)
  • Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110 via FanDuel)
  • Kadarius Toney to score the first touchdown (+1400 via BetMGM)

Check out our Jaguars-Chiefs odd analysis and NFL Divisional Round odds and lines.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Prop Picks

Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Patrick Mahomes has all but locked up the MVP award after throwing for a league-leading 5,250 yards this season and 41 touchdowns (six more than the next-closest quarterback). And though he torched the Jaguars for 331 yards and four touchdowns in the first meeting this season, Mahomes has had fewer than three passing touchdowns in nine of 17 games.

Mahomes is 4-0 in his career in the divisional playoffs and has nine touchdowns and no interceptions in those games. However, the Jaguars have pressured quarterbacks on 36% of dropbacks since Week 14 (fifth-most in the league), and we expect them to make adjustments seeing Mahomes for the second time.

In addition, this is a three-star play since it factors in the possibility of Kansas City taking its foot off the gas if it builds an early lead (the Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites).

Other sportsbooks like FanDuel charge bettors -140 in juice to back the Under, so we are getting great value at PointsBet in comparison.

Editor's note: The best odds available for Mahomes' Under 2.5 TDs as of Saturday afternoon are -106 via Fanduel Sportsbook.

Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Lawrence had the same O/U of 1.5 passing touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers and hurt the books badly as the Over was one of the most heavily backed prop wagers. Again, we are making the Over a confident four-star play, as head coach Doug Pederson will likely be aggressive in his play-calling with Reid on the opposite sideline.

In the first seven drives against the Chargers last week, Lawrence went 5-for-18 for 35 yards with no scores and four interceptions. However, he led his team to 31 points in the final five drives and completed 23-of-29 passes for 253 yards and four touchdowns.

Of course, it helped that Los Angeles had the lowest designed rush rate while leading in the second half (24%) of any team this season. Still, Lawrence was clearly comfortable in Pederson’s up-tempo attack, and we look for that to be utilized more this week.

Pederson started the first meeting with Kansas City with an onside kick and will continue to be aggressive in this rematch.

Editor's note: The best odds available for Lawrence' Over 1.5 TDs as of Saturday afternoon are -113 via FanDuel.

Kadarius Toney to score the first touchdown (+1400) ⭐⭐

Since being acquired by the Chiefs on Nov. 6, Toney has become increasingly acclimated to his new high-powered offense each week. He had a team-high (and season-high) 71 receiving yards in Week 17 and followed that up with a rushing touchdown on a jet sweep in Week 18.

Reid trusts Toney to run more routes as he continues learning the playbook and is utilizing Toney’s speed in his ever-evolving creative offensive scheme.

With Kansas City a big -8.5 favorite, we are playing the odds that the Chiefs are the first to find the end zone. Of course, plenty of bettors will prefer Toney’s +225 odds at BetMGM to be an anytime touchdown scorer, but we see too much value in the +1400 odds (+1300 through DraftKings Sportsbook, and +750 via Caesars Sportsbook) for him to score first.

Jaguars-Chiefs player prop picks made 1/19/2023 at 6:19 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”