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Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks, Predictions NFL Divisional Round: Does Score Stay Under Inflated Total?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: January 21, 2023 6:56 PM EST • 2 min 48 sec read.

After meeting during the regular season, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs will hit the gridiron again Saturday, and a seat at the table for the AFC Championship Game is up for grabs. Read on for our best Jaguars vs. Chiefs NFL picks based on the top NFL odds.

Nobody could have predicted the manner in which the Chiefs (14-3) earned the No. 1 overall seed and the first-round bye in the AFC Playoffs, but the fact that Kansas City ended up there was no surprise.

To return to the AFCCG, the Chiefs must handle their business against a Jaguars (9-8) team coming off one of the most impressive comebacks in NFL playoff history.

Here is our best Jaguars vs. Chiefs NFL pick for the Divisional Round (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Jaguars vs. Chiefs player prop picks, Jaguars vs. Chiefs same game parlay, and Trevor Lawrence vs. Patrick Mahomes prop picks.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Game Info

Date: Saturday, Jan 21, 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Weather: 36 Degrees, 18% Precipitation, 3 mph winds

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds Analysis

The Chiefs opened as 9.5-point home favorites before the line was quickly bet down to -8.5. It has since risen back up to -9.5 at our top-rated sportsbooks as of Saturday afternoon. Over half of the money, 51%, wagered on the spread has gone to Kansas City.

The total opened at 51.5 and has been bet up to between 52.5 and 53 across our recommended sportsbooks. Bettors are expecting points, as 64% of the money wagered has gone Over.

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Pick

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Under 53 (-110 via DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

The Jaguars and Chiefs played to a 27-17 final score (44 total points) at Arrowhead Stadium back in November. The Jaguars used the disappointment from that result to turn around their season, finishing the regular season with a 6-1 record following the loss in Kansas City.

An improved defense was a notable part of those efforts, particularly over their final three regular-season games, across which Jacksonville allowed just one touchdown. Although the Jags surrendered 30 points in their Wild Card win over the Chargers, I attribute a lot of that to the short fields provided by Lawrence’s four first-half interceptions. In the second half, Jacksonville allowed just three points.

Prioritizing time of possession has been a strategy that has worked against Kansas City in past playoffs. Jacksonville ranks in the middle of the pack in plays per game and could aim for a methodical approach to limit Patrick Mahomes’ touches.

Is it a winning strategy? Probably not, given the long moneyline odds. But it could be one that produces a lower-scoring game than the sportsbooks project. That’s been a trend in Kansas City home games, as those contests are 2-6 on Overs this season. Mahomes and Co. will score their points, but a Jacksonville defense averaging 1.5 takeaways per game could muddy the waters.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Best Odds

DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Under 53Under 52.5Under 53Under 53Under 52.5
-110-106-110-110-110

Though all four games in the Division Round have the potential to unravel into shootout territory, the Jaguars-Chiefs matchup is the only one to open with a total north of 50. The number has since moved further in our favor across the board, making the Under an even more attractive pick than it was to start the week.

Two of our five recommended sportsbooks list the total at 52.5 . DraftKings, Caesars and BetMGM provide a more attractive listing for Under bettors, though, with the number at 53 with those same -110 odds. If the odds were to inflate to 54.5, this becomes a four-star recommendation.

Jaguars-Chiefs pick made 01/20/2023 at 12:50 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.