The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday, and here’s our NFL odds analysis for the AFC Divisional Round matchup.
The Jaguars pulled off the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history (27 points) to earn their spot in the divisional round. Jacksonville entered the playoffs on a five-game winning streak, the franchise's longest in a single season since 2005. The Jaguars are now 8-7 in the playoffs all time, going 1-4 against the New England Patriots and 7-3 against all other teams.
Meanwhile, Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes is 4-0 in his career during the divisional round, with nine touchdowns to zero interceptions. The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 27-17 at home in Week 10.
Here are the best NFL odds for the AFC divisional round matchup featuring the Jaguars and Chiefs via our best sportsbooks.
The consensus opening moneyline odds for this matchup were Kansas City -450 and Jacksonville +325. There's currently a significant difference among our top-rated sportsbooks. Those wanting to back the favorites should sprint to Caesars, where the Chiefs are listed at -480. PointsBet, FanDuel and BetMGM have the highest juice at -500.
The Moneyline odds at DraftKings have been experiencing the most fluctuation. Jacksonville is currently +390 there, but the Jaguars were as low as +330. DraftKings has the best number for the Jags as of Saturday afternoon.
The Chiefs opened as 9.5-point favorites, and after all sportsbooks have moved lines in Jacksonville's favor, Kanas City is again a consensus -9.5 home favorite as of Saturday afternoon.
Additionally, DraftKings is the only sportsbook with tilted juice (-115) on the KC side.
The total has ballooned from an opening of 51.5 to 53 at DraftKings, Caesars and BetMGM.
However, PointsBet and FanDuel sit at 52.5. FanDuel is posting the juice for the Over at -114 and the Under at -106. The Under is drawing only 36% of the tickets.
- Since 1966, four teams (1981 New York Giants, 1981 San Francisco 49ers, 2001 Patriots, 2015 Washington Commanders) have won eight games (including playoffs) as underdogs in a single season. Jacksonville's comeback victory over Los Angeles was the Jaguars' eighth outright win as an underdog in 2022-23. The team can set a new record against the Chiefs.
- Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson is now 6-0 against the spread as an underdog during the playoffs. He's one of two undefeated head coaches ATS after a minimum of four playoff games.
- Lawrence is undefeated on Saturdays, a 37-0 mark that goes all the way back to high school.
- Home teams that won four-plus more regular-season games than their opponents are 14-3 straight up and 9-8 ATS since 2005. The Chiefs went 14-3 while the Jaguars went 9-8.
- Home teams that won 13-plus regular-season games are 23-16 SU and 14-25 ATS during the divisional round since 2006.
- The Over is 8-3 in Jacksonville's last 11 road games, while the Under is 5-1 in Kansas City's previous six home contests.
The Kansas City Chiefs are favored to win.
The Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites, and are anywhere from -400 to -455 moneyline favorites.
How to bet on the Jaguars-Chiefs game
One can make wagers at some of our top sportsbooks, like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and PointsBet, to name a few.
The Jaguars and Chiefs kick off on Saturday, Jan. 21 at 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
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