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NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Top 4 ATS Bets and Predictions for the Divisional Round

Jon Metler

Last Updated: January 17, 2023 10:01 AM EST • 3 min 48 sec read.

Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers runs with the ball during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at Levi's Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Santa Clara, California.
Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers runs with the ball during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at Levi's Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Santa Clara, California. Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images via AFP.

Will the Jacksonville Jaguars be able to pull off another miracle when they travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in the Divisional Round? With the best NFL odds, let's take a look at our favorite NFL point spread picks for the weekend. 

As the top six teams in my power ratings have advanced to this weekend, we will have some interesting matchups this weekend in the Divisional Round. One of the only surprises to still be playing this late in the season is the New York Giants, which is a testament to what Brian Daboll has accomplished in his first season as their head coach. 

Speaking of excellent coaching jobs this season, what a job Doug Pederson has done with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Are the Jaguars capable of advancing to the AFC Championship with an upset victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday? 

Here are the power rankings of my favorite point-spread picks for the Divisional Round (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; Lines as of Tuesday, Jan. 17 at 10:30 a.m. ET).

NFL ATS Picks Power Rankings for the Divisional Round

4. Jaguars +8.5 vs. Chiefs (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

The Jacksonville Jaguars ranked as the No. 1 team in our power rankings over Wild Card Weekend and they provided us with one of the easiest covers I've ever seen. Although the Jaguars continue to cash tickets, as I make this bet I'm reminded of the half-point loss I suffered when I backed them at +9.5 in Week 10 when they traveled to Arrowhead and lost 27-17. 

This coming weekend, I like the Jaguars again, despite the fact that they didn't cover the spread in Week 10. While I will say that this is a very solid line, and there's very little value available at this time. 

I make the Chiefs 8-point favorites over the Jaguars, so we're only seeing a half-point difference between my price and the market. You could hold off in hopes of finding the Jaguars at +9, but I'm not sure if we'll ever see that number this week.

3. Eagles -7.5 vs. Giants (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐

There will be a lot of discussion this week about how New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones performed against the Minnesota Vikings, but we all knew that the Vikings' pass defense was one of the worst in the NFL. On Football Outsiders, the Vikings' pass defense ranks 26th in DVOA, while the Philadelphia Eagles rank first. 

In the Eagles' Divisional Round matchup with the Giants, I make the Eagles 8.5-point favorites, so once again we're seeing a very small difference in my price and the market's. Aside from the one-point difference, there are no key numbers involved. Rather than buying this spread right away, I would wait to see if I could at least find the Eagles at -7 to eliminate the hook. 

2. Bills -4.5 vs. Bengals (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

This will no doubt be a highly emotional game for both the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals, as Bills safety Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field the last time these two teams met and the game was canceled.

For many bettors, the opportunity to back Bengals QB Joe Burrow and get 4.5 points will be very appealing; however, the Bengals are seriously hindered by the injuries to their offensive line. Injuries have now been sustained by left tackle Jonah Williams, right guard Alex Cappa, and right tackle La'el Collins.

I make the Bills 5.5-point favorites over the Bengals, and there's a good chance it should be even more since it's unclear what impact losing three offensive linemen will have on the Bengals.

After opening the Bills as 5.5-point favorites, BetMGM has lowered the line back to Bills -4.5. Based on BetMGM's opening line and the fact that it's the only sportsbook trading the Bills at -4.5 (-110), I'm looking to jump on this spread early in the week before it moves up to Bills -5. 

1. 49ers -3.5 vs. Cowboys (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

After what we witnessed against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I think many people will feel very comfortable taking the Dallas Cowboys at this number. For me, the key question is whether you trust Mike McCarthy and whether the Buccaneers were unprepared for that game rather than the Cowboys being really good. 

I make the 49ers 5-point favorites over the Cowboys, and unlike my previous picks, this spread involves several key numbers. The key to this spread will not be who to buy, but when to buy it. The 49ers are the side I want to back, so now it's all about obtaining the best price.

This can only be accomplished by keeping an eye on the board throughout the week in the hope of spotting a rogue number on one of the many sportsbooks I use. The initial line is between 49ers -3.5 and -4, so it seems unlikely that we will be able to pick up a -3.

FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM are all listing the 49ers as 3.5-point favorites. If they begin to adjust their lines, and I'm left with only one sportsbook offering -3.5, I will take this number. So long as I have multiple sportsbooks showing the -3.5, I will wait for a better number, as I certainly don't want to lose the -3.5 and be forced to take -4. 

NFL against-the-spread picks made 01/17/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.