NFL Teaser Picks Divisional Round: Extra Rest Pays Off For Chiefs, Eagles

The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are ripe teaser candidates coming off their respective bye weeks and checking out as notable home favorites. Here are our top teaser picks for the NFL Divisional Round.

Teasers are popular among both sharp and recreational bettors, and they enable you to move multiple spreads and/or totals through key numbers and ranges for an increased vig. Our teaser betting primer offers additional information and strategies to keep in mind.

Here are our NFL teaser picks for the Divisional Round (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out the odds and picks for Tom Brady's next team and Lamar Jackson's next team.

Divisional Round NFL Teaser Picks

• Six-point teaser: Chiefs -2.5 + Eagles -1.5 (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Chiefs (-2.5 vs. Jaguars)

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-17 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 10, and I’m expecting a similar result Saturday. It’s just impossible to overlook Kansas City head coach Andy Reid’s 27-4 career record following a bye. Additionally, the Chiefs have won their last three divisional-round games following a week off with quarterback Patrick Mahomes at the helm.

Even with Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence playing at an elite level during Jacksonville’s active 7-1 surge following its own Week 11 breather, Mahomes is better, more experienced, and better equipped with a more talented collection of skilled-position weapons.

I don’t often handicap a meaningful home-field advantage, but with a cold and wet weather forecast for Saturday night in Kansas City, familiarity at Arrowhead Stadium also favores the Chiefs. This spread can be teased down below a field goal, and I’m confident in the Reid-Mahomes combo in this spot to cover a decreased number.

Check out our 2023 Super Bowl odds and our Super Bowl MVP odds.

Eagles (-1.5 vs. Giants)

I attribute a huge advantage in this schedule spot to the Eagles. 

Not only did the Eagles have last week off to rest and prepare, but the New York Giants are also playing their third consecutive road game and fifth in six weeks. That’s a lot of time on the highway.

Additionally, though I respect New York’s 14-4 record against the spread, I do view them as a significantly weaker team in terms of talent and performance. In particular, the G-Men finished 29th in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders while surrendering the fifth-highest EPA per play during the regular season, and they actually played worse following their Week 10 bye, with second-last ranks in both metrics.

A six-point teaser moves this line through multiple key numbers, and most importantly below a field-goal spread. I’m expecting Philly to put too many points on the board and expose a New York defense that's overachieved.

Divisional Round NFL Teaser Best Odds

DraftKings (-120)

Each sportsbook offers teasers in a unique way, so it’s important to know whether a push is considered a loss or if the pick will be removed and the odds adjusted. Additionally, you may need to go into each individual game and select an alternative point spread and then create a parlay, which is the case with BetMGM, Caesars, and PointsBet.

Of our top-rated sportsbooks, DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook are the easiest shops to place a teaser bet with, and the odds are adjusted in the event of a push. DraftKings also offers the best number for a six-point Chiefs-Eagles teaser. Bettors land a 6.1% edge and an 11% positive expected value when placing this wager at DraftKings instead of PointsBet, which is a notable gap.

NFL Divisional Round teaser picks made on 1/17/2023 at 3:00 p.m. ET.

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