How to Hedge Your Super Bowl Futures, Bets & Fandom: Middles & Bankroll Growth
Do you have a bet on the Seahawks or Patriots today and want to guarantee a profit? Below, I break down how to hedge your Super Bowl futures, bets, and fandom ahead of Super Bowl 2026.
Kickoff from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock), with the Seahawks entering as a 4.5-point betting favorite over the Patriots.
Our Super Bowl predictions feature all the content you need to get ready for the Big Game.
❌ How not to hedge your Super Bowl futures
With so many people placing futures on who will win the Super Bowl before and during the regular season, sportsbooks often report some of the more impressive bets they’ve taken.
In this scenario, the bettor has guaranteed a profit of at least $1,363,750 - but this is not the optimal way to hedge a future.
The bettor is guaranteeing themselves a loss on one of their bets by hedging their Seahawks Super Bowl future (which is essentially Seahawks ML +6000 for our purposes today) with Patriots ML +195.
Not only did the bettor fail to get the best number on the Patriots (there are prediction markets offering Patriots ML +212 with hundreds of millions in liquidity), but since the Seahawks are favored, they should’ve middled the bet.
🔮 How to hedge your Super Bowl futures: What is a middle?
The optimal way for the BetMGM user in this example to hedge their bet would have been to middle it.
The bettor already holds a ticket for Seahawks ML +6000; they could win both bets (and still protect their future) by playing Patriots +4.5 (+100) at a prediction market.
While the bettor would need to put up more money upfront ($1,413,750 on Patriots +4.5) to reach the minimum profit of $1,363,750 - assuming this is their target in this example - middling creates a scenario where they could earn even more profit.
(Note: This example assumes the bettor has the cash or access to a line of credit required to optimally hedge.)
| Scenario | Bet outcomes | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| Seahawks cover -4.5 | Seahawks (+6000) ✅, Patriots +4.5 ❌ | $1,586,250 |
| Patriots win | Seahawks (+6000) ❌, Patriots +4.5 ✅ | $1,363,750 |
| Seahawks win, Patriots cover +4.5 | Seahawks (+6000) ✅, Patriots +4.5 ✅ | $4,413,750 |
This demonstrates why middling your bet is optimal, instead of guaranteeing a loss on one side.
If your future is on a team that is the underdog in the Super Bowl, you would apply the same principles. The difference: Instead of hedging with the underdog on the spread, you would hedge your future by playing the favorite on the moneyline.
It won’t be as profitable as hedging against a Super Bowl ML favorite, but the goal is to put yourself in a position where you can win both bets simultaneously.
🎟️ How to hedge your Super Bowl bets: Bankroll growth optimization
While hedging is technically negative expected value - because if you have a bet on a team that’s already exceeding expectations, you’re reducing your edge by betting the other side - we live in the real world, and people are going to hedge their bets.
A scenario where hedging your Super Bowl bet makes sense is if the potential payout is too large for you to risk missing out on.
For example, if you bet more than you should have on Patriots ML (more than 5% of your bankroll, assuming you’re using quarter-Kelly), and the Patriots are now winning live, you might want to recoup some money in case the Seahawks make a comeback. In that case, betting the Seahawks live as underdogs is reasonable for bankroll-growth optimization.
While betting at its core is about gaining a mathematical edge over the sportsbook, a more pragmatic approach is to focus on growing your bankroll by any means - even if that sometimes means placing bets with negative expected value.
😟 How to hedge your Super Bowl fandom
Hedging doesn’t always have to be math-related.
If you’re betting just for fun - in other words, not as a source of side income - there’s nothing wrong with placing a small wager, roughly the cost of a meal, against your team in the Super Bowl.
For example, if you’re a Seahawks fan and would be disappointed if they lose, you could place a small bet on the Patriots to win. That way, even if your team loses, you still have the silver lining of earning a few extra dollars.
📺 How to watch Super Bowl 2026
- Date: Sunday, Feb. 8
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
- TV: NBC/Peacock
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