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Curtis Samuel of the Washington Commanders scores a rushing touchdown in the second quarter of a game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on November 20, 2022 in Houston, Texas.
Curtis Samuel of the Washington Commanders scores a rushing touchdown in the second quarter of a game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on November 20, 2022 in Houston, Texas. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images via AFP.

Wins last week by the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders have made both teams contenders in the NFC playoff race. Read on for our top Falcons-Commanders NFL picks for Week 12.

The Falcons won six of their last seven matchups with Washington and scored at least 24 points in nine straight games against the Commanders, which is the franchise’s longest streak against any opponent in team history.

Meanwhile, Washington has won back-to-back games entering Week 12, which includes an impressive victory on the road over the then-undefeated Philadelphia Eagles in Week 10

Here are our Falcons-Commanders picks for Week 12 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out all of our NFL picks for Week 12.

Falcons vs. Commanders Game Info

Date: Sunday, Nov. 27, 1 p.m. ET
Location: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
Weather: 48 degrees, 89% chance of precipitation, 11-mph winds

Falcons vs. Commanders Odds

Falcons vs. Commanders Odds Analysis

The Commanders opened as 3-point home favorites, but that line has increased to four points. This could be a result of the injury to Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts, as he was placed on injured reserve earlier this week. The public appears to be taking the points being laid, with 62% of the cash on Atlanta.

Check out our NFL odds and lines analysis for Week 12.

The total has dropped from 42 to 40 at most books. The movement could be attributed to the weather forecast and quarterback play on both sides.

Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.

Falcons vs. Commanders Picks

  • Spread: Falcons +4.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★★
  • Over/Under: Under 40.5 (-107 via PointsBet) ★★★★
  • Prop pick: Curtis Samuel anytime TD (+205 via Caesars) ★★★★

Falcons vs. Commanders ATS Pick

Falcons +4.5 (-110) ★★★★

The Falcons are 7-4 against the spread this year. They’re 3-1 ATS when they’re underdogs by 4.5 points or more. Atlanta rushed for more yards (149) than it threw for (131) in last week’s win over Chicago and join the Bears as the only teams this season with more rushing yards than passing yards through 11 games. As we saw in their surprise win over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, if the Falcons can get the lead, they’ll take control of the clock and run it down with their effective ground game. 

The Commanders are good at stopping the run, but rank in the bottom four of the league in pass attempts allowed. With Swiss Army Knife Cordarrelle Patterson, the Falcons can exploit Washington through the air and on special teams. His 105-yard kick return last week earned him the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors. 

These two teams are evenly matched and don’t get a lot from their passing games. It could be a tight contest; therefore, we take the points that are being handed to us.

The odds are consistent with most sportsbooks, though shop around. For example, FanDuel Sportsbook has the spread at -4 in Washington’s favor.

Falcons vs. Commanders O/U Pick

Under 40.5 (-107) ★★★★

These teams play to their quarterbacks’ strengths. Washington has won two straight games despite Taylor Heinicke accounting for zero touchdowns. He joins Dwayne Haskins in 2019 as the only two Commanders quarterbacks in the last 20 seasons to win in two straight starts without accounting for a single touchdown. Falcons QB Marcus Mariota ran for and passed for a touchdown in last week’s win, his third game this season with at least one touchdown through the air and on the ground. 

Heinicke threw for 191 yards in that game last week, with no interceptions. Mariota’s game against the Bears included 13-for-20 passing for 131 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. Neither quarterback makes many headline-grabbing plays, but they get the job done. 

Defense will be a factor in this game, especially between two low-scoring offenses. The Commanders have given up an average of 17 points per game across their last three contests. Atlanta’s average across that span is 23 points allowed. That 40-point total between the two is exactly where I see this game ending.  

Some books have the line set at 40, so be careful where you shop. At -107, PointsBet is giving you the best price.

Check out our top trends to know for Week 12.

Falcons vs. Commanders Prop Pick

Samuel anytime TD (+205) ★★★★

Commanders receiver Curtis Samuel has become Washington’s version of 49ers’ ‘wideback’ Deebo Samuel. The Commanders receiver rushed for a touchdown in last week’s win and is up to 152 rushing yards on the season. It is the most rushing yards by a Washington receiver since 1967. 

Samuel's rushing attempts aren’t at his namesake’s level, but he’s been effective when used out of the backfield. Samuel is one of four wide receivers in the Super Bowl era with 600-plus rushing yards, at least six rushing touchdowns, more than 2,500 yards receiving, and 15-plus receiving touchdowns in their career. Samuel's in his sixth season. 

The Falcons’ defense is bottom six in the NFL against wide receivers who line up out wide this season. Terry McLaurin will be the main target for Heinicke, and he’ll be a major focus for Atlanta’s defensive backs, which should free up space for Samuel, who has multiple ways by which he can score.

Check out our Over/Under picks for Week 12.

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Falcons vs. Commanders picks made 11/24/2022 at 3:36 p.m. ET.