Dolphins vs. Steelers Prediction & Odds for Monday Night Football
I'm backing Mike Tomlin's team to win and cover in my Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction for Monday Night Football at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The Steelers are the 3-point betting favorite to win their eighth game of the season. The analysis below covers Tua Tagovailoa's poor record in freezing conditions, one of the main talking points as kickoff approaches. As part of the NFL predictions for Week 15, I've also included a De'Von Achane player prop.
🏈 Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction: Monday Night Football
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Steelers -3 (-113) ⭐⭐⭐
The Dolphins are getting hot at the right time of the season. However, I'm not sold on Mike McDaniel's team, particularly considering the freezing conditions awaiting them at Acrisure Stadium.
Only one of their six wins has come against a team with a record better than .500, and four victories occurred against teams with three wins (New York Jets twice, New Orleans Saints, and Washington Commanders).
So, I'm not ready to back them in a game where the temperature will be 17 degrees at kickoff. While they played in freezing conditions last week at MetLife Stadium, I'm not willing to say their issues in cold weather are behind them, given the lacklustre level at which the Jets played.
Conditions suited for Steelers
Tagovailoa is 0-5 in games below 40 degrees, 1-6 when it's 45 degrees or colder, and 2-8 in 50 or below (via Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post).
During their current four-game win streak, the Dolphins lead the NFL with 192.3 rush yards per game, so expect a heavy dose of the same in chilly Pittsburgh.
And while Pittsburgh's 17th-ranked rush DVOA won't deter the Dolphins, Mike Tomlin's team can scheme with that probable eventuality in mind.
Monday's conditions are the Steelers' bread and butter, and they're more battle-tested going in, with only two of the previous seven games played against teams under .500, one of which was the Baltimore Ravens.
The odds for a Steelers' cover range from -110 to -116, with the former offered by DraftKings. At the standard -110 juice, a winning $10 bet will earn $9.09 in profits.
Elsewhere, our Phil Wood expects a low-scoring affair in his Dolphins vs. Steelers early prediction.
Score prediction: Steelers 21, Dolphins 17
💡 More Week 15 predictions
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🆚 Key matchup to watch on MNF
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De'Von Achane vs. Steelers defense
Achane smashed through the over on this total in four straight games, averaging a ridiculous 130 yards per game. Based on the conditions and the Dolphins' recent over-reliance on the ground game, he'll be in for another heavy workload.
The Steelers, meanwhile, have allowed the second-most rushing yards against in the last three games (188.3) and the seventh-most rushing yards per attempt (4.4) in that same sample size.
Pittsburgh struggled mightily in the last two, allowing 217 rush yards against Baltimore last week and 249 in the previous week against Buffalo at home. I believe the game will be close throughout, allowing the Dolphins to stick with the run. If Achane accounts for at least 79 rushing yards, you'll earn $8.85 on a $10 bet.
Of the best sports betting sites, DraftKings offers the best value (-113).
Best prop bet: De'Von Achane Over 78.5 rushing yards (-113 via DraftKings)
📊 Live Dolphins vs. Steelers odds
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📈 Dolphins vs. Steelers betting trends
| Dolphins | Statistic | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | W-L record | 7-6 |
| 7-6 | ATS record | 6-7 |
| 7-6 | O/U record | 7-5-1 |
| 5.4 | Yards per play | 5.2 |
| 5.6 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4 |
| -0.1 | Turnover margin | +0.7 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
| W, 34-10 Jets | Previous result | L, 27-22 Ravens |
🚑 Dolphins vs. Steelers injury report
❄️ Dolphins vs. Steelers weather
It will be freezing at 18 degrees in Pittsburgh, with wind gusts up to 17 mph. At the time of writing, there is no chance of precipitation.
Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.
📺 How to watch Monday Night Football: Dolphins vs. Steelers
- Date: Monday, Dec. 15
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
- TV: ESPN
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