Dak Prescott vs. Tua Tagovailoa NFL Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions

The Miami Dolphins host the Dallas Cowboys as we make our best Dak Prescott vs. Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds at the best sportsbooks.

In a notable shift from his recent performances in Week 15, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott faced a game when he didn't throw any touchdown passes for the first time since Week 1. He wrapped up the match with only 134 yards, marking his lowest yardage output for the season. Additionally, this game marked the end of his four-game streak without throwing an interception.

In his game against the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa completed 21 of 24 passes for 224 yards and one touchdown. Had the Dolphins not been dominating, he easily could have put up 300 against one of the best pass defenses in football.

In addition to our Cowboys-Dolphins NFL player prop picks and Cowboys-Dolphins prediction, here are our best Dak Prescott vs. Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions for the Cowboys vs. Dolphins 16 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dak Prescott vs. Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions for Week 16

• Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Dak Prescott Over 24.5 completions (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Tua Tagovailoa + Dak Prescott Under 542.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Tagovailoa has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in four of his last six games. The only two games where he threw more than one during that span came against the Washington Commanders and Las Vegas Raiders. Those two teams rank 32nd and tied for 14th, respectively, in touchdown passes allowed per game.

Tagovailoa has yet to throw multiple touchdowns against a team with a winning record this season. The Cowboys' defense allows 1.3 passing touchdowns per game, but they also showed a serious weakness against the run last week. In a game that won’t be as high-scoring as many anticipate, expect Tua to finish this game with one or fewer touchdown passes like he’s done seven times this season.

The price for this prop varies greatly depending on which NFL prop betting sites you look at. FanDuel has the price for the under at +104, while the best sportsbooks ask for +110 or better. However, bet365 is offering the best price by far. At this price, this is close to being a four-star play.

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Dak Prescott Over 24.5 completions (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Prescott has completed at least 25 passes in eight games this season. In last week’s loss to the Buffalo Bills, he completed just 21, which is likely why the price for this over is so favorable.

The Dolphins are allowing an average of 22.2 completions per game. Over the past three weeks, they’re allowing just 17.7 per contest, but they did play the Jets, the Titans, and the Commanders. The Dolphins have the fourth-best run defense in the league, and the Cowboys have struggled to run the ball. In a close game, Prescott has no choice but to throw from start to finish. 

FanDuel has set this total at 23.5, but they’re asking -132 for the Over. Because of the price difference, we recommend taking the extra completion for a significantly better price, as Prescott should clear this by two or three completions.

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Tua Tagovailoa + Dak Prescott Under 542.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Both of these players have passing totals set near or above 270 yards. And while one of them could easily clear their total on Sunday, the chances of both of them doing so aren’t very high. These two pass defenses are among the best in the NFL, and both of these quarterbacks have shown blemishes against solid competition this season.

Though Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passing yards, he hasn’t thrown for 300 in his last four games. Prescott has gone for less than 300 in three consecutive matchups, including his really weak performance last week. 

The Dolphins have a phenomenal rushing attack. After the Cowboys’ rush defense was exposed last week, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane should be able to exploit it again this week. Neither team will stop throwing on Sunday, but only the quarterback playing from behind has the opportunity to throw for a lot of yards. And they still won’t do enough to push this combined total Over at the best sports betting apps.

Dak Prescott vs. Tua Tagovailoa player prop picks made 12/23/2023 at 12:56 p.m. ET.

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