Cowboys vs. Dolphins Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 16: Shootout in Miami?
Sunday’s clash between the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins is the first of 2023 featuring two teams with 10-plus wins, and we offer our best Cowboys vs. Dolphins prediction based on the best NFL odds at the best sportsbooks.
Dallas faced a setback as their impressive five-game winning streak concluded with a challenging 31-10 defeat against the Buffalo Bills on the road. This loss marked the Cowboys' fourth stumble in their recent six away games. However, despite their road struggles, they secured a playoff spot for the third consecutive season, thanks to the Atlanta Falcons' loss during the same week.
Meanwhile, Miami won its eighth straight home game against the New York Jets last week, and its 30-0 victory was its first shutout since 2020, also against the Jets. Miami’s 10-4 start is its best since 2000.
Per the NFL on CBS, this is the first game in NFL history between two teams that have combined to win 20-plus games but have one or fewer wins against teams above .500 between them.
In addition to our NFL Week 16 predictions, Cowboys-Dolphins NFL player prop picks, and Dak Prescott-Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop picks, here are our best Cowboys vs. Dolphins prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Cowboys vs. Dolphins prediction
Over 51 (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Dallas and Miami share the third-best Over record (8-6), indicating high-scoring tendencies for both teams. Despite the Cowboys' season-low of 195 yards last week and the Dolphins' shutout by their defense, we anticipate a high-scoring clash between these two potent offenses.
Dallas has allowed 28 or more points in four road losses this year, and the fact that it is an underdog in this game does not bode well for its run defense. In wins this season, the Cowboys have faced an average of 23.2 rushes and allowed 87.7 rushing yards per game. In losses, Dallas has faced an average of 38.3 rushes and allowed an average of 191.8 yards (the most by any team in 13 years, min. four losses) on the ground in those games.
The Cowboys are coming off allowing James Cook to be the first Buffalo Bills running back with 200 or more scrimmage yards and multiple touchdowns in a game since Thurman Thomas, and Buffalo’s 266 rushing yards were the most Dallas has allowed in a game since 2020. The Cowboys rank 31st in success rate against the run, which is troubling heading into a matchup against Raheem Mostert, whose 20 touchdowns are a single-season franchise record.
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa combatted the Jets’ fierce pass rush last week by averaging 2.08 seconds to throw, tied for the fastest in his career. In addition, he went 16-for-19 on throws within 2.5 seconds, with seven of those completions going to Jaylen Waddle. That is a great recipe for success when facing a Cowboys defense led by Micah Parsons, who leads the league in pressures after Week 15 (89).
And while Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott was held to 3.9 yards per attempt last week (the second-lowest of his career), he still entered the week ranked first among all quarterbacks on third down in QBR, completion percentage, and first down percentage.
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Cowboys vs. Dolphins best odds
BetMGM, Caesars, bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 51.5 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Over (-112) | Over (-105) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) |
As Over backers, we have our choice of three of the best sports betting apps, who each charge -110 juice at the lowest number of 51. Given FanDuel's lower -105 price to back the Over of 51.5, it seems likely that it will come down to 51 like the others at some point.
We would play this number up to 51.5 at the best sportsbooks as the Under is 4-1 in Dallas’ last five games against AFC opponents.
Cowboys vs. Dolphins odds
Cowboys vs. Dolphins odds analysis
FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites with a total different from its opening number, which has risen from 51 to 51.5 since Sunday night. DraftKings also saw a brief uptick from 51 to 51.5, but bettors drove that number back to 51 by Tuesday afternoon. The Over has received most of the betting action at the best sportsbooks, with 86% of the wagers.
Our best sportsbooks are in unison with a point spread of Miami -1.5 at -110 odds. Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 were the only one of our best sports betting apps that opened at Dolphins -2 on Sunday night, which means any line movement to this point has gone in the Cowboys’ favor. However, that is a case of slight reverse line movement, as 53% of the wagers are on Miami.
The road team is 4-1 ATS in Miami’s last five games, and Dallas has done well to avoid losing streaks with wins in nine consecutive games following a loss.
Cowboys vs. Dolphins game info
- When: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 76 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, wind 13 mph E
Cowboys vs. Dolphins prediction made 12/20/2023 at 6:16 a.m. ET
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