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Chiefs vs. Falcons Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for SNF Week 3

Philip Wood

Last Updated: September 17, 2024 10:07 AM EDT • 3 min 34 sec read.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins throws a pass during the first quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles as we look at our Chiefs vs. Falcons early leans.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins throws a pass during the first quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles. Photo by Eric Hartline/Imagn Images.

We give our early leans as the Atlanta Falcons prepare to host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 3. The Chiefs are the Super Bowl odds favorites, while the Falcons' Bijan Robinson is a dark horse in the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds.

After their incredible comeback victory in Week 2, the Falcons are underdogs of more than four points at home against the Chiefs. When looking at the Chiefs vs. Falcons early leans and odds, it’s fair to question whether Atlanta should be a home underdog in this game.

The Chiefs are 2-0, but they’re an Isaiah Likely touchdown and a fourth-down pass interference call away from possibly being 0-2. Patrick Mahomes has proven to be matchup-proof throughout his career. But the Falcons' defense is off to a hot start, and Mahomes managed just 151 passing yards last week.

My early Chiefs vs. Falcons prediction: Falcons +4.5

NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Falcons +4.5

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

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The Chiefs are the Chiefs, and that’s the only reason why they’re even favored in this game.

The Falcons struggled in Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the offense looked much more in sync during Week 2 when facing the Philadelphia Eagles. There's plenty of talent on that side of the ball in Atlanta, and this is a dangerous team if it starts to finish drives.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been a little disappointing despite their record. Mahomes has thrown as many touchdowns as interceptions, and now Isiah Pacheco is out with a fractured fibula.

And while the young receivers have been good, Travis Kelce logged just four catches for 39 yards thus far.

Since the Falcons are the home team, I think they keep this game within a field goal and potentially win.

Right now BetMGM is alone among our best sports betting sites while offering +4.5 for a better price than -110. And with how things are shaping up, this spread will drop to 4 before long in the NFL Week 3 odds. Get in sooner than later as part of your NFL Week 3 predictions.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Chiefs vs. Falcons live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 3 game.

Moneyline

There's value in taking the Falcons to win this game outright. They’re at home, and they’re facing a team that's being overvalued because of past pedigree.

However, the Chiefs' moneyline will likely dip below -200 early in the week, as initial money is backing the Falcons. Wait until later in the week for the best Falcons moneyline odds. And make your bet by Wednesday if you're backing the Chiefs.

Spread

  • Chiefs best odds: -4.5 (-105) via bet365
  • Falcons best odds: +4.5 (-105) via BetMGM

There isn’t much of a difference in price among our best sportsbooks for the spread. But based on how the lines are moving early, it seems like this spread is going to shrink fast.

But it won’t get to the key number of three, and the Chiefs could start to take money late and push this to 5. Right now the public is excited about the Falcons after their win on Monday night. The spread will move in their favor initially, so make your wager early if you’re betting the Chiefs for the best value in the Sunday Night Football odds.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 46.5 (-110) via BetMGM
  • Under best odds: 46.5 (-110) via BetMGM

All of our best sports betting apps are offering the same total for the same price. It’s tough to say where this total will move as the week progresses, as neither team has been great offensively this season, but the Chiefs are a very public team.

Both the Chiefs’ games so far have gone Over this number, though barely, while the Falcons’ contests have both gone Under 46.5. Don’t expect much movement before kickoff, but take the Under if the total stays where it is or moves up to 47 or higher.

How to watch Chiefs vs. Falcons

  • When: Sunday, Sept. 22
  • Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
  • How to watch: NBC/Peacock
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Chiefs (-205 via DraftKings)

NFL betting odds pages

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NFL Defensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Offensive Rookie of the Year OddsNFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
NFL Coach of the Year OddsNFL Comeback Player of the Year OddsNFL Win Totals Odds
NFL Playoff OddsNFL Draft Odds

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.