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NFL Best Bets Week 4: Will Browns Keep Up Historic Defensive Pace?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 1, 2023 11:38 AM EDT • 5 min 19 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

We've explored different betting markets to identify our NFL Best Bets for Week 4, relying on the best NFL odds available.

Parity has been a dominant theme in the first three weeks of the NFL season, with only three undefeated teams left standing.

Following the recent game between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers, which created some separation in the NFC North standings, this week's matchup between the 3-0 Miami Dolphins and the 2-1 Buffalo Bills carries similar importance in the AFC East race.

Overall, this season has seen road teams amassing a 27-22 straight-up (SU) record, and it will be interesting to see if this trend continues, especially with six teams being favored on the road over the weekend.

Here are our NFL best bets and NFL picks for Week 4 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Week 4

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Week 4 NFL schedule and odds

(Odds via Caesars)

NFL predictions for Week 4

Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Raiders (-195 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

As crazy as an O/U of 2.5 passing touchdowns is, we were shocked to see oddsmakers not instill that as Justin Herbert’s prop total, given his career success against the Las Vegas Raiders. Thus, despite the steep -195 price at DraftKings (the Over is as high as -200 at BetMGM and bet365), we are still laying this big number as our most confident play.

Herbert has 15 total touchdowns and one giveaway in six career games against the Raiders. Las Vegas has allowed seven touchdown passes on the season and not forced an interception, as a lack of a pass rush has allowed opposing quarterbacks to get comfortable in the pocket.

Herbert has averaged 309 passing yards per game with 14 passing TDs to one interception against Las Vegas. He has multiple touchdown passes in five of those six games and 300-plus passing yards in four of the six. And we are not worried about the Mike Williams injury affecting Herbert this week, as Joshua Palmer has recorded 13-plus fantasy points in two of his last three games vs. the Raiders.

Ja’Marr Chase Over 82.5 receiving yards vs. Titans (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ja’Marr Chase’s quarterback, Joe Burrow, is off to a poor start to 2023. He has posted a 38 total QBR, averaged 6.1 air yards per attempt, a minus-4.5% completion percentage over expected, and has been off-target on 19% of his throws. However, the Bengals can build off a positive second half last week against the Rams, when they scored 13 of their 19 points and found more explosive plays in the passing game.

Chase had his best game of the season last week with 12 receptions for 141 yards. It was clear the focus was to align him in different spots on the field and take advantage of mismatches, as he had 17 snaps aligned wide right, 16 wide left, 14 in the slot, and two in the backfield. That gives a Tennessee defense much to prepare for, and the Titans have allowed the third-most passing yards this season.

In addition, teams are completing passes at a rate of 10% over expectation against the Titans, with an 11-yard average DOT (the highest in the NFL). Thus, this is a four-star play, especially after Chase had 15 targets and the sixth-most fantasy points among wide receivers last week.

bet365 is the only one of our best sports betting apps at which one can back his Over of 82.5 at standard -110 odds, and we are getting a better number on this prop compared to the O/U of 84.5 yards found at FanDuel.

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Alvin Kamara anytime touchdown vs. Buccaneers (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Alvin Kamara returns from a three-game suspension (personal conduct policy) and gets a matchup with a usually stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense. However, the Buccaneers are coming off a short week and allowed the Philadelphia Eagles to rush for 201 yards and 5.0 yards per carry.

This is only a three-star play as Kamara may have some rust to shed, but he has scored 10 touchdowns in 11 career games against Tampa Bay, and we expect head coach Dennis Allen to make arguably his best skill-position player a focal part of the offense.

The +130 odds offered at bet365 are the best value compared to the +120 found at DraftKings.

Ravens Under 19.5 vs. Browns (+106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Cleveland Browns are not likely to keep up their torrid pace defensively forever, but we are getting on board with what they have done for at least one more week when facing a banged-up Baltimore Ravens offense.

The Browns' defense ranks first in points per game (10.7), yards per play (3.2), Total QBR (23), and scrimmage touchdowns (one). In addition, they have allowed the fewest yards per dropback (3.5), and their 163.7 yards allowed per game are the fourth-fewest through three games in the Super Bowl era.

Thus, this is a four-star play, as the league’s No. 1 team in terms of defensive efficiency (per ESPN Analytics) should be able to limit the scoring potential of a team that could once again be without two starting offensive linemen and two wide receivers.

There is plenty of value to be had with the plus-money offering at FanDuel, considering DraftKings charges a price of -102 to back the Under of 19.5, and bet365 has -110 odds to back Baltimore’s team total Under of 20 points as part of its team points 3-way prop.

NFL best bets made 9/29/2023 at 4:23 p.m. ET.

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NFL betting odds pages

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NFL Offensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Passing Yards OddsNFL Worst Record Odds
NFL Defensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Rushing Yards OddsNFL Win Totals Odds
NFL Coach of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Receiving Yards OddsNFL Draft Odds
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.