NFL Best Bets for Week 2: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

The Patriots winning as a road underdog and the Bears covering the spread headline our best NFL bets for Week 2.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 14, 2025 6:00 AM EDT • 8 minute read

NFL Best Bets Week 2: Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props — Pictured: New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. Photo by Jasen Vinlove via Imagn Images.

Last week’s mix of moneyline parlays, totals, and player props proved profitable as I ended with a 4-1 week, and I am back to continue that momentum with my NFL best bets for Week 2.

My NFL picks are selling high on two players who are coming off impressive Week 1 performances and involves wagers on a moneyline underdog and an ATS play that are sure to be contrarian. It’s all part of our NFL predictions for Week 2.

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 2

NFL best bets odds subject to change.

Patriots ML (+110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Bears +6.5 (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Broncos-Colts Under 43.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Michael Penix Jr. Over 0.5 interceptions (-140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Emeka Egbuka Under 53.5 receiving yards (-113 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🪖 Patriots ML (+110) ⭐⭐⭐

Miami has won four straight games and eight of the last nine in this AFC East rivalry. But I believe in the new Mike Vrabel regime in New England, and the Dolphins gave no indication in Week 1 that they are a playoff contender.

The Dolphins allowed the Colts to score on all seven of their possessions last week while making Giants cast-off Daniel Jones look like a bona fide MVP candidate.

After Patriots quarterback Drake Maye set career highs in pass attempts (46) and passing yards (287) last week, I expect New England’s offensive strategy to change. The Dolphins allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs last year, so TreVeyon Henderson should find success after averaging 5.4 yards per rush last week, eighth-most among running backs.

While New England’s point spread varies from +1.5 to +2.5, its +110 moneyline odds are consistent across the best sports betting sites. Had its line ever reached +3, I would change this to an against the spread play. But instead, I am confident in the 47.62% implied probability of the upset happening and am looking to turn my $10 wager into an $11 profit.

🐻 Bears +6.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As of Wednesday night, 83% of the money wagered on this game had been on Detroit’s point spread (the second-most lopsided split thus far), so I am happy to back the contrarian side.

The Lions may not be in jeopardy of losing outright after just having their eight-game divisional winning streak snapped. After all, Detroit is the only team since 2023 that has not lost back-to-back games. But the jury is still out on quarterback Jared Goff, who is 3-18-1 in his career without Sean McVay or Ben Johnson as his play-caller.

The angle with Johnson now coaching on the other sideline is intriguing, and the familiarity with the Lions organization suggests the game should be close.

Goff averaged 5.8 yards per attempt while throwing an interception and being sacked four times last week. Meanwhile, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams owns the best touchdown-to-interception ratio (21-6) among 28 quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall through 18 career starts in the common draft era.

I would not put bettors off waiting to see if this line ever gets to +7 given the 54.13% implied probability on the -118 juice at +6.5. But there are also still plenty of +6s out there, so I am backing the best number at the moment. A $10 winning wager would return $8.47 in profits.

⬇️ Broncos-Colts Under 43.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Broncos' defense is coming off generating the second-highest pressure rate in Week 1 (50%), as well as the fourth-lowest completion percentage over expected (minus-10.5%), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis just held Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a league-worst 2.7 QBR. But Bo Nix was not much better, owning the third-worst QBR and finishing as the only winning quarterback with a sub-50 QBR last week.

Denver has allowed fewer than 20 points in 12 games since 2024, the most in the NFL. Its ability to shut down opposing No. 1 wide receivers with Patrick Surtain and Co., who allowed the fewest receiving yards to wide receivers last year, lowers the ceiling considerably on how many points will be scored.

I am taking advantage of the best number and price at Caesars before the rest of the best sports betting apps align with the O/U of 42.5 that’s available at the low end of the market. The -110 odds would turn a $10 bet into a $9.09 profit with a 52.38% implied probability.

💰 Best NFL player prop bets for Week 2

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Michael Penix Jr. Over 0.5 interceptions (-140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Michael Penix Jr. threw for the fourth-most passing yards in Week 1 (298), while the team struggled to run the ball (its 2.8 yards per carry average ranked 28th). Now, when facing a Vikings defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game since 2024, I expect the Falcons' coaching staff to continue to let Penix air it out.

A volume passing attack is dangerous against a Vikings defense that has 24 interceptions since 2024, five more than the next-closest team.

Tampa Bay did not blitz Penix much in Week 1, but Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores sent blitzes at the highest rate last year. Penix had a 41% completion rate with a 0-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure last year.

The market value alone makes this play worth a wager, as Penix's implied probability to throw an interception is as high as 60.16% through DraftKings’ -151 odds. I am rushing to bet365 before it raises its price to back this Over. A $10 winning wager at -140 odds would net $7.14 in profits.

⬇️ Emeka Egbuka Under 53.5 receiving yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 64% of his passes and averaged 8.4 yards per attempt when targeting Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka last week. Those are vastly better numbers than his 44% completion percentage and 2.7 yards per attempt when targeting all other players.

While Egbuka made history, becoming the second Bucs player since 2005 with two touchdowns in his NFL debut, I am selling high on the rookie this week.

I expect Egbuka to receive shadow coverage from Derek Stingley Jr., who is tied for the most passes defensed since 2023. Stingley allowed a 47% catch rate and 4.9 yards per target last season, and he should have Egbuka on lockdown this week.

With the Under of Egbuka’s 4.5 receptions juiced as high as -135 (carrying a 57.45% implied probability), the better value is the -113 odds at DraftKings for him to stay Under his receiving yards total. At -113 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $8.93 in profits.

❓ NFL betting FAQs

What are the best bets for NFL Week 2?

My best bets for NFL Week 2 are the Patriots to win as a road underdog, the Bears to cover, the Under in the Broncos-Colts game, Michael Penix Jr. to throw at least one interception, and Emeka Egbuka to stay Under his receiving yards total.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”