Bengals vs. Bills Odds, Picks, Predictions Divisional Round: Spot in AFC Championship on the Line in Buffalo

A date in the AFC title game is up for grabs Sunday, as the Cincinnati Bengals head to Highmark Stadium to face the Buffalo Bills. Read on for our top NFL picks based on the best NFL odds for the Divisional Round showdown between Cincinnati and Buffalo. 

The Bengals and Bills are two of the hottest teams in football, with the Bengals winning their last nine games and the Bills winning their last eight. When these two met back on Jan. 2, the Bengals held a 7-3 lead and the ball when the game was called.

While these two teams are thought to be Super Bowl favorites, neither looked very good in their Wild Card Weekend wins. The Bills defeated the Miami Dolphins 34-31 as 13.5-point favorites, and the Bengals needed a 98-yard fumble return touchdown to secure victory over the Lamar Jackson-less Baltimore Ravens.

Here is our best Bengals vs. Bills NFL pick for the Divisional Round (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Bengals vs. Bills prop picks, same-game parlay, and Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen prop picks.

Bengals vs. Bills Game Info

Date: Sunday, Jan. 22, 3 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Weather: 37 degrees, 7-mph winds, 96% chance of precipitation

Bengals vs. Bills Odds

Bengals vs. Bills Odds Analysis

Depending on which of the major sportsbooks you were looking at, the Bills opened as either 3.5- or 4-point favorites. That number has grown throughout the week, and now the Bills favored by 5.5 or 6 points, depending on the shop. Bettors are flocking to the underdog Bengals, as 65% of bets are coming in on Cincy as of Sunday afternoon.

The total opened between 49.5 and 50.5, but has settled at 48.5 as of Sunday afternoon. Snow is expected on Sunday which could impact both offenses and keep this lower scoring than many are anticipating. Still, 69% of bettors are backing the Over.

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

Bengals vs. Bills Pick

Bills -5.5 vs. Bengals (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The movement of this line makes no sense. An overwhelming majority of bettors are backing the Bengals, yet the spread continues to move in favor of the Bills. Oddsmakers are completely disregarding the public as they have now shifted this line a full two points in favor of the home team.

What makes this even more alarming for Bengals’ backers is that Cincinnati is 12-4 against the spread this season. Oddsmakers are willingly giving more points to one of the best cover teams in the NFL this season. Why?

Because the Bills have the advantage at all the places where public bettors don’t generally look. The Bengals' offensive line is in shambles heading into the Divisional Round, and that is going to cause problems for Joe Burrow. While he will still have all of his weapons, he won’t have the time necessary to get the ball to his targets. 

For those arguing that he made a Super Bowl last season with a bad offensive line, lightning very rarely strikes twice. This season, Burrow has been sacked five or more times in three different games. The Bengals lost all three of those contests.

The only reason this isn’t a five-star bet is because Josh Allen has had a hard time taking care of the ball. He single handedly kept the Dolphins in last week’s game. But if he does secure the ball, then this could be the biggest blowout of the weekend.

Editor's note: The best odds available for Bills -5.5 as of Sunday morning are -115 via DraftKings and PointsBet.

Bengals vs. Bills Best Odds

BetMGM and Caesars (-110)

There has been line movement in this game, and three of the five major sportsbooks are offering the same spread. DraftKings and FanDuel still have the Bills -5.5 spread available as of Sunday morning, with the rest of our top-rated shops hanging Buffalo -6. 

Bengals vs. Bills pick made 01/20/2023 at 8:40 a.m. ET.

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