Bears vs. Jets Picks, Predictions Week 12: Will QB Switch Pay Off for NYJ?
Quarterback changes on both the New York Jets and Chicago Bears has resulted in significant line movement in the betting market. Here are our top NFL picks as the 6-4 Jets host the 3-8 Bears in Week 12.
Optimism was high among players, management, and fans of the Jets heading into Week 9. The team had a 5-2 record and was in the midst of a four-game winning streak. Since then, New York has lost two of its last three games and will now start backup quarterback Mike White over incumbent starter Zach Wilson in Sunday’s tilt against the Bears.
This decision speaks volumes about the Jets’ brass and their lack of confidence in Wilson, who would undoubtedly love a bounce-back, lay-up game against a lowly opponent. However, the decision-makers were left with no choice, given the plethora of mistakes and errant throws Wilson had in last week's 10-3 loss to the New England Patriots.
On the other side of the coin, Bears quarterback Justin Fields is likely to be sidelined for Week 12 due to a shoulder injury. Trevor Siemian is the expected starter for Sunday's game.
Here are our top Bears-Jets picks for Week 12 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all of our NFL picks for Week 12.
Bears vs. Jets Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 27, 1 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium, City, State
Weather: 54 degrees, 77% chance of precipitation, 12-mph winds
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Bears vs. Jets Odds
Bears vs. Jets Odds Analysis
The total opened at 48 but has dropped 10 points to 38 after the QB changes. Still, the Under is drawing 55% of the cash and 56% of the tickets.
Check out our NFL odds and lines analysis for Week 12.
New York opened as a 3.5-point favorite, but the spread has since seen a dramatic change of its own, moving to Jets -6.5. The money has changed hands quite a bit over the course of the week, but the Jets are currently getting 62% of the cash, while the Bears are receiving 52% of the tickets.
Bears vs. Jets Picks
- Spread: Bears +6 (-108 via FanDuel) ★★★★★
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★★★
- Prop: David Montgomery 80+ rushing yards, 1+ rushing touchdowns (+175 via DraftKings) ★★★★★
Bears vs. Jets ATS Pick
Bears +6 (-108) ★★★★★
Naturally, the chances of the Bears winning this game are slim, but 6 points is a lot for the Jets to be laying with White under center for his first meaningful snaps of the season. What the Jets have on defense is canceled out by what they lack on offense. New York’s inability to score points in recent weeks may or may not be aided by White under center, and the Bears' porous defense adds fuel to that fire.
Chicago has averaged 28.75 points per game over its last four losses, meaning defeat hasn’t been due to a lack of scoring. Jets running back Michael Carter could be in for a big day, as the Bears allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game.
Chicago has also yielded 18 rushing TDs. New York may have its own struggles, but its defense and the Bears' lack thereof could all but seal the Jets' victory.
Bears vs. Jets O/U Pick
Over 38.5 (-110) ★★★★★
Very rarely does a point total market fall by more than 10 points from the opening line, but the disarray of both organizations heading into Week 12 can help to explain that. Six of Chicago's last seven games totaled at least 47 points. The Bears' high-event and fast-pace style could certainly swing this game in that direction.
As previously mentioned, New York’s defense is strong; however, it’s not impenetrable. For example, the Dallas Cowboys allow a league-low 16.7 points per game, but the Bears were still able to rack up 29 points against them. With a total this low, the best value can be found by taking the Over.
Most sportsbooks have similar odds on a 38.5 O/U market, so finding additional value may unfortunately be tricky.
Check out our top trends to know for Week 12.
Bears vs. Jets Prop Pick
Montgomery 80+ rushing yards, 1+ rushing TDs (+175) ★★★★★
The writing seemed to be on the wall for Bears starting running back David Montgomery – who was selected in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft by an old management regime. Chicago’s backup running back Khalil Herbert was a sixth-round pick in 2021, but he’s outproduced his draft capital by a landslide and was well on his way to taking Montgomery’s job before recently landing on injured reserve due to a hip injury.
Injuries are always an unfortunate reality, but the news grants Montgomery a lifeline he may not have otherwise had. Now is the time for him to show the Bears' brass why he was the starter in the first place, and that motivation paired with the additional volume he will receive in Herbert’s absence bodes well for the likelihood of smashing this prop.
Check out our Over/Under picks for Week 12.
Where to Bet on Bears vs. Jets Picks
Bears-Jets picks made 11/24/2022 at 6:01 p.m. ET.