Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions Week 16: Picks & Odds for Saturday
We started the NFL's Week 16 with a big hit via our anytime touchdown scorer prediction for TNF and we'll look to carry that success into Sunday when looking to the best NFL odds.
Our anytime touchdown scorer predictions for the 2023 season are now up 12.75 units after hitting on New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson at lucrative +600 odds during Thursday Night Football between the Saints and Los Angeles Rams but giving back two units during the NFL's two Saturday games.
We'll look to get back on track with a win on Sunday before turning to Christmas Day tripleheader.
To accompany our NFL player props and best bets, and our Week 16 NFL player props, here is our best anytime touchdown scorer prediction for Saturday based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 16: Sunday
Cardinals vs. Bears anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Khalil Herbert, CHI, RB (+270 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Though seven were accounted for by San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey in two games, the 3-11 Arizona Cardinals have surrendered 21 total touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. There were 13 scored on the ground and eight more allowed through the passing game.
The Cardinals are again 4-point underdogs on the road against the Chicago Bears, in the tough outdoor conditions of Soldier Field in late December. Bears running back Khalil Herbert is projected for 0.3 touchdowns to math teammate D'Onta Foreman with a favorable game script.
Our betting calculators turn that implied 30% probability into odds of +235, and while the best price for a Foreman touchdown is the +195 odds via DraftKings, Caesars is offering us an outlier +270 ticket on Herbert hitting the end zone.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 16: Christmas Day
Giants vs. Eagles anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG, WR (+550 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Contrary to some misaligned hype surrounding former undrafted free agent QB Tommy DeVito, the New York Giants offense has been an utter disaster, even in the absence of Daniel Jones. Per NFL Savant, Giants receiver Isaiah Hodgins' one red-zone target in Week 14 is the only such look doled out by QB Tommy DeVito since Week 12, when three players combined for three catches inside the 20-yard line.
However, that works just fine for our plan of attack with our anytime touchdown scorer prediction for the NFL's Christmas Day slate. The Giants are on the road as 13.5-point underdogs against the rival Philadelphia Eagles. Yet Philadelphia has allowed a league-high 24 passing touchdowns to receivers, with nine of those allowed in the last four weeks, and another two TDs allowed to the position on the ground this season.
Thus, we're looking to Giants receiver Wan'Dale Robinson with his 0.2 projected touchdowns and inflated +550 odds via DraftKings. The sophomore Robinson has caught 17 of 20 targets for 165 yards in his last four games with single-game highs of 21 and 32 yards in that span. He has also carried the ball eight times for 63 yards this season.
Expect some trickery from a desperate Giants side late in Monday's second game, with Robinson the most likely beneficiary against a susceptible (and likely disinterested) Eagles defense.
See Sean Tomlinson' Giants vs. Eagles prediction and Mike Spector's Giants vs. Eagles NFL player props for more on Monday's matchup.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 16: Saturday
Bengals vs. Steelers anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Chase Brown, CIN, RB (+425 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
Though his snap counts remain somewhat suppressed behind starter Joe Mixon, rookie fifth-rounder Chase Brown is beginning to carve out a sustainable role in the Cincinnati Bengals' offense. That's especially so in the Jake Browning-led passing game.
Brown received three targets in each of his last two games and caught all six of those, including a 54-yard touchdown catch-and-run in Week 14. While we can't rely on that type of big-play production, Brown has supplemented it with at least seven carries in three straight games. He'll also be facing a Pittsburgh Steelers defense on Saturday that has been susceptible to pass-catching running backs.
Pittsburgh has allowed two rushing and two receiving scores to opposing running backs in the last four weeks. For the season, the Steelers have given up four receiving touchdowns to rushers.
Brown is projected for 0.3 scores on Saturday afternoon. Our betting calculators equate that implied probability to odds of +235, but we're able to get an outlier +425 ticket via BetRivers. BetMGM has again set the market low with odds of +280.
Get the best possible odds with our BetRivers bonus code: SBRBONUS. For more on this matchup, see Shane Jackson's Bengals vs. Steelers prediction.
Bills vs. Chargers anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Quentin Johnston, LA, WR (+500 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
After Week 15, we can forget everything we previously knew about Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston.
The rookie first-rounder was kept our of the end zone through his first 13 NFL games and was already being cast off as a draft bust. Though he caught just two of a meager three targets in last week's blowout loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, he hit paydirt in his first full game with QB Easton Stick running the offense.
Johnston also played a season-high 92% of the snaps last week and should again be the focal point of the passing game with Keenan Allen sidelined for a second straight week. It will also be the Chargers' first game since firing head coach Brandon Staley.
Johnston is projected for 0.2 touchdowns against a Bills defense that has surrendered four touchdowns (plus one rushing score) to wide receivers in the last four weeks. That 20% implied probability should equate to odds of +400 but we're getting strong +500 value from BetMGM.
Get the best odds via our BetMGM bonus code: SBRBONUS.
For more on Bills vs. Chargers see our other picks for the special Saturday edition of Sunday Night Football:
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 16: Thursday Night Football
Saints vs. Rams anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Juwan Johnson, NO, TE (+600 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅
One of my first stops when targeting anytime touchdown scorers is always positional matchups. From my experience, no other positional advantage against a defense is as reliable (or as profitable) as tight ends.
For the season, the Rams and Saints have allowed seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends, more than every team but the Denver Broncos (nine TDs allowed). Yet, we're getting market-high odds of just +320 via Caesars with a projection of 0.2 touchdowns for Rams tight end Tyler Higbee. Saints tight end Juwan Johnson shares that projection, but we can get odds of +600 from Caesars.
Sportsbook Review's odds converter translates an implied 20% probability of Johnson scoring a touchdown into odds of +400. Most of our best NFL prop betting sites are above that threshold, with BetMGM offering the low price of +375. Caesars' +600 odds are above and beyond the rest.
Get the best odds on a Johnson touchdown via our Caesars promo code: SBRBONUSDYW.
While tight end Jimmy Graham has found the end zone in three straight games, there's some regression coming for the Saints' positional group. Johnson ranks second among all Saints tight ends in snaps played this season, and he has caught five of his six red-zone targets on the season but has just one touchdown on those receptions. However, he scored his second TD of the season last week to potentially earn a bigger role in this exploitable mismatch.
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