2026 AFC Championship Stats & Trends: 25 Key Numbers to Know for Patriots vs. Broncos

The New England Patriots (14-3) and Denver Broncos (14-3) meet today at 3 p.m. ET in the AFC Championship, which is a familiar sight for those who enjoy NFL playoffs history.

Count me firmly among that group, which is why I dove deep into the AFC Championship stats to find 15 key numbers that told the story of Patriots vs. Broncos ahead of their clash today from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. Here are some of the best trends and numbers to know to complement our NFL conference championship predictions.

5️⃣ Fast Five: 5 key stats to know for 2026 AFC Championship

See the latest NFL odds and our expert NFL picks for every playoff matchup.

• 14 - Wins for both the Patriots and Broncos during the regular season. It's the first time the AFC Championship has featured two teams with at least 14 wins since the Patriots (14-2) beat the Pittsburgh Steelers (15-1) in 2005.

• 4 - Postseason losses for the Patriots in the franchise's only four playoff games in Denver. That includes both of these teams' previous AFC Championship matchups in 2013 and 2015 - the latter matchup doubling as the final matchup between Tom Brady (Patriots) and Peyton Manning (Broncos) in a 20-18 win for Denver.

• 749 - Days between Jarrett Stidham's most recent pass attempt (excluding preseason) and his next pass attempt in Sunday's AFC Championship in place of injured starter Bo Nix. That's more than double the longest layoff between attempts for a starting QB in a playoff game since 1950 - nearly two decades before the AFL-NFL merger.

• 11 - AFC Championship victories for the Patriots, the most in league history. New England could set a new NFL record with its 12th Super Bowl berth and 40th postseason win on Sunday, and it could break a tie with the Steelers with seven Lombardi Trophies if it wins again two weeks later.

• +5.5 - The opening point spread for the Broncos, which would have made them the biggest home underdogs in AFC Championship odds history. The line has since moved to +3.5, which is still tied for the third-biggest spread for a home underdog in the conference championship round.

🪖 Patriots stats & playoff trends

• 72% - Drake Maye's completion percentage in the regular season, tied for the fifth-best in a single season in NFL history. Maye also led all qualified passers this season in yards per attempt (8.9), passer rating (113.5), and QBR (77.1) and ranks third by the latest Super Bowl MVP odds entering the AFC Championship.

• 16 - Combined wins for Mike Vrabel in his first regular season and postseason, one shy of the NFL record for the most in a head coach's first year with his team. He could become the eighth coach to reach the Super Bowl in his first season at the helm and the only one to win a championship with the same team as a player and head coach.

• 10 - Additional wins for the Patriots this season (14-3) compared to last season (4-13) - tied with the 1999 Indianapolis Colts and 2008 Miami Dolphins for the single-biggest improvement in NFL history. New England can also become the 15th team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl a year after posting a losing record.

• 8 - Road wins this season for the Patriots, who became the 12th team in NFL history to post an undefeated road record in the regular season. Only one of those eight wins came against a team that finished the season with a winning record (Week 5 at Buffalo Bills).  

• 40 - Red-zone attempts allowed by the Patriots in the regular season, the fewest surrendered by any team this season. Teams scored on 27 of those attempts for a 67.5% red-zone conversion rate - the third-highest against any defense this year.

🐎 Broncos stats & playoff trends

4 - Career starts for Stidham ahead of Sunday's AFC Championship - the fewest ever by a starting QB in the conference championship round or later. He's also the first quarterback to make his career playoff debut this late into the postseason since Joe Namath in the 1968 AFL Championship.

68 - Sacks for the Broncos' defense in the regular season, five shy of the most in a single season in NFL history. Denver's pass rush ranked second in pressure rate (30.5%), first in QB knockdown rate (13.5%), and third in ESPN's pass-rush win rate (45%) under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, who has received multiple head coach interviews this offseason.

20.3% - Completion percentage allowed by the Broncos' defense on deep attempts (20+ air yards) in the regular season, the best mark in the NFL. Denver held Bills QB Josh Allen to zero completions with two interceptions on nine such attempts last week, while Maye enters this week as the NFL leader in expected points added on throws of at least 20 air yards (+62.8 EPA).

11.4% - Percent of snaps in which Patrick Surtain II was targeted as the boundary cornerback, the second-lowest mark among 64 players with at least 100 such snaps. He also allowed 0.6 yards per coverage snap, which was the fifth-best mark in the NFL this season, while allowing just two touchdowns all season.

18 - All-time home playoff wins for Denver dating back to 1977 with just five home losses in the postseason. That includes a 6-1 home record in the AFC Championship Game and a 16-4 record in their last 20 home playoff games.

🅰️ AFC Championship stats & series history

.800 - Denver's winning percentage in the AFC Championship Game, the best record by any team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The Patriots still own the record for the most AFC Championship wins (11) while ranking second with the most appearances (15).

5 - Wins by the home team in these teams' previous five playoff matchups. The Broncos have won all four contests in Denver - including both AFC Championship meetings between these teams - with the Patriots winning a 2011 divisional round game at home. 

15 - Combined home wins in the AFC Championship in the last 19 seasons. The Patriots and Broncos have combined for seven such wins at home, though New England was one of those four road teams to win outright in the AFC Championship Game.

31 - All-time wins for the Broncos against the Patriots in 55 meetings between the two franchises. Denver has won just once in four meetings since the 2016 AFC Championship, which marked these teams' last postseason matchup and the final edition of Brady vs. Manning before the latter retired that offseason.

7 - Years since the Patriots' last Super Bowl appearance, their longest drought since drafting Brady in 2000. The Broncos haven't reached the Super Bowl since winning it all in 2016 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., which will also host this year's Super Bowl.

💰 AFC Championship betting notes

5 - Outright wins for the Broncos in six games this year as an underdog, including last week's win at home against the Bills. That 5-1 record is the best for any team with multiple games as a betting underdog, while Denver is one of just three teams with multiple outright wins as a home underdog.

11 - Games that went Over the closing total for the Patriots this season, tied for the second-most by any team in the regular season. New England went Under in the wild-card round against the Los Angeles Chargers but cashed the Over in the divisional round against the Houston Texans; the Broncos also hit the Over last week against the Bills.

14 - Wins against the spread for the Patriots this season (including playoffs), posting an NFL-best 14-5 ATS record with five consecutive ATS wins entering the AFC Championship. That includes a 3-1 ATS record as a road favorite this season, winning by an average of 15.5 points in those four outright victories.

12 - Career wins for Maye when his team is favored by at least 3.5 points, boasting a perfect 12-0 record in that spot with all 12 wins coming this season. Vrabel has also won 16 of 22 games straight up as a road favorite in his career, including an 8-0 record as a road favorite in December or later as a head coach.

10 - ATS wins for home underdogs of at least 4 points in the NFL playoffs over the last 50 years in 10 tries. Six of those 10 previous teams won outright (10-0 ATS), though the last three have all lost outright despite covering against the spread - most recently the Carolina Panthers losing to the Los Angeles Rams in this year's wild-card round.

📊 Live Patriots vs. Broncos odds

🔮 Patriots vs. Broncos predictions 

Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for the 2026 NFL playoffs.

• AFC Championship odds
• How the Patriots win the Super Bowl
• How the Broncos win the Super Bowl
• Jarrett Stidham Super Bowl MVP odds
• Jarrett Stidham compared to Nick Foles
• How do backup QBs fare in conference championship?
• Patriots vs. Broncos prediction
• Patriots vs. Broncos player props
• Patriots vs. Broncos key matchups
• Patriots vs. Broncos prediction market
• Patriots vs. Broncos anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• Patriots vs. Broncos first touchdown scorer predictions
• Patriots vs. Broncos same-game parlay
• Drake Maye player props
• Jarrett Stidham player props
• Patriots vs. Broncos weather report
• Patriots vs. Broncos expert picks
• AFC Championship Stats & Trends

💡 More Conference Championship predictions

• Super Bowl odds ahead of Conference Championships
• Super Bowl odds power rankings
• Super Bowl head coach history and trends
• Super Bowl look-ahead odds
• Ranking Super Bowl matchups
• NFL playoff QB power rankings
• NFL best bets for Conference Championships
• NFL player props for Conference Championships
• NFL AI predictions for the Conference Championships
• NFL weather report for Conference Championships
• NFL anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Conference Championships
• NFL anytime touchdown scorer parlay for Conference Championships

❓ AFC Championship Game FAQs

Who is the AFC Championship Game favorite?

The New England Patriots are the road favorite in the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High with -210 moneyline odds.

When will the 2026 AFC Championship Game be played?

The Patriots and Broncos will meet in the 2026 AFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 25, with a 3 p.m. ET kickoff at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver.

Where will the 2026 AFC Championship Game be played?

The 2026 AFC Championship Game will be played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver.

How to watch the 2026 AFC Championship Game

CBS (and Paramount+) will broadcast the 2026 AFC Championship Game, beginning at 3 p.m. ET.