USC vs. UCLA Odds, Picks, Predictions College Basketball: Can Trojans End Bruins’ Win Streak?

The USC Trojans are set to face the UCLA Bruins in a Pac-12 battle on Thursday. Read on for our USC-UCLA pick and prediction based on the top odds.

It's time to head to Los Angeles for a rivalry matchup between USC and UCLA for your late-night viewing.

This will be the third consecutive road game for the Trojans, who are 11-4 and coming off an 81-71 loss to Washington State on Sunday. It marked USC’s first conference loss of the year, falling to 3-1 in Pac-12 play.

The Bruins (13-2, 4-0) are clearly the betting favorite in this one, as they haven’t suffered a setback since dropping two games during a midseason tournament in Las Vegas in November. UCLA enters this matchup on a 10-game win streak, but experienced bettors know to never count out an underdog in a rivalry game.

Here is our best USC vs. UCLA college basketball pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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USC vs. UCLA Game Info

Date: Thursday, Jan. 5, 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA

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USC vs. UCLA Odds

USC vs. UCLA Odds Analysis

UCLA opened as a 14-point road favorite, but that line has dropped a full possession and is now a consensus 11-point spread. The spread is still as high as 11.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM for those wishing to back the underdog.

You might be surprised by the lofty line, but KenPom projects a 78-63 victory for the Bruins, and oddsmakers tend to be more in line with those projections. Still, USC has received 83% of spread bets and 87% of the handle, according to the sportsbook consensus at pregame.com.

The total opened at 140 and touched as high as 140.5 before Right Angle Sports released a play on the Under during Thursday’s free stream. RAS moves the market like nobody else in college basketball, so the line is now sitting at 137 or 137.5.

USC vs. UCLA Pick

USC +11 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a fascinating game to handicap because both the spread and total have already moved so much. You have to accept that you are getting the worst of the number if you are betting on the underdog or taking the Under at this point. (Full disclosure: I actually bet the Under and was writing that play up before RAS released it.)

As a result, I’m still giving respect to the Under by taking a double-digit underdog in a potentially low-scoring game. KenPom might project a 15-point blowout, but other metrics are showing more respect for the Trojans. ShotQuality’s numbers predict a 69.8-62.7 victory for UCLA.

The reason for this is actually pretty simple. ShotQuality believes UCLA is shooting above expectation on 3-pointers (by 2%) and mid-range shots (by 4%) based on the shots taken. USC, meanwhile, should be shooting 2% better from beyond the arc.

The Bruins are going to take a lot of mid-range shots with Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell leading the way, but the Trojans actually rank fourth in the nation in 2-point defense. It should make for a good matchup between two rivals who are very familiar with each other.

USC might not win, but Andy Enfield’s squad is capable of staying within 10 in a bit of a slugfest on Thursday.

USC vs. UCLA Best Odds

DraftKings (-105)

The importance of line shopping continues to show up when betting on college basketball, as we have four different spreads between our five top-rated sportsbooks. In situations like this one, I prefer to use Unabated’s line calculator tool to help figure out what the best line is.

According to the line calculator, DraftKings’ line of +11 with -105 odds is actually the best option for our underdog wager. You could get the hook at FanDuel and BetMGM, but the juice would only be worth it if the standard -110 vig was our only option.

PointsBet is offering even money at 10.5 if you are feeling bold, but we prefer the safety of an 11-point spread for a potential push.

USC-UCLA pick made 1/5/2023 at 11:50 a.m. ET.

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