March Madness Bracket Predictions & West Region Preview: Sleepers, Upsets & NCAA Tournament Favorites
The North Carolina Tar Heels are the No. 1 seed, but the Arizona Wildcats are the favorites to advance out of the West. Here are our March Madness bracket predictions and West Region preview based on the best March Madness odds.
Of all the regions, the West feels the most wide open. The Tar Heels barely hung on to the final number one seed, and beyond the first round, every matchup will be tough for them.
The Wildcats are favored to win the region as the number 2 seed. But they have a tough road ahead, too. They have a potential second-round matchup with the Nevada Wolf Pack, and if they win that game, the road doesn’t get any easier against the Baylor Bears or the New Mexico Lobos.
Then there is the Saint Mary’s Gaels. For the third year in a row, they’re a number 5 seed, but never has their path been as straightforward as it is this season. Their first-round matchup against the Grand Canyon Lopes may be their most challenging until the Elite Eight.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here are our March Madness bracket predictions and West Region preview (college basketball picks based on odds from our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
March Madness West Region odds 2024
Here are the odds via DraftKings to win the West Region.
| Team (Seed) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arizona (2) | +200 |
| North Carolina (1) | +260 |
| Baylor (3) | +650 |
| Alabama (4) | +800 |
| Saint Mary’s (5) | +1000 |
| New Mexico (11) | +2200 |
| Michigan State (9) | +2200 |
| Nevada (10) | +3000 |
| Mississippi State (8) | +3000 |
| Clemson (6) | +3500 |
| Dayton (7) | +5500 |
| Grand Canyon (12) | +7500 |
| Colgate (14) | +15000 |
| Charleston (13) | +15000 |
| Long Beach State (15) | +25000 |
| Howard (16) | +50000 |
| Wagner (16) | +50000 |
Not intended for use in MA
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March Madness West Region picks
- Michigan State vs. Mississippi State
- Long Beach State vs. Arizona
- Wagner vs. North Carolina
- Nevada vs. Dayton
- Colgate vs. Baylor
- New Mexico vs. Clemson
- Charleston vs. Alabama
- Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary's
March Madness betting odds pages
No. 1 seed: North Carolina (+350 via FanDuel)
The Tar Heels are getting the least respect of any of the top seeds. For them to get to the Final Four, they’ll need to beat either the Michigan State Spartans or Mississippi State Bulldogs in the second round and then they’ll have either the Gaels or Alabama Crimson Tide waiting for them in Sweet 16.
The Tar Heels should be favored in every game they play, and perhaps Nevada, Baylor, or New Mexico can take care of Arizona before the Tar Heels need to face them. Because of how tough the bottom of this region is, it’s not a bad idea to bet on the Tar Heels to win it, even if they’re undoubtedly the weakest top seed in the tournament.
Sleeper pick: New Mexico (11) (+2500 via BetMGM)
The Lobos boast the 17th-highest-scoring offense in the country and rank 51st in offensive efficiency. But they’re not just great on one side of the ball. They also rank 26th in defensive efficiency.
New Mexico gets a very favorable draw, as it's a 2.5-point favorite over the sixth-seeded Clemson Tigers. With four guys who average over 12 points per game, its tournament isn’t going to end in the Round of 64 or 32. And if they get hot, it can beat any team in the West.
Prices for the Lobos to win the region range from +1400 to 2500. This is worth a play if you can ensure you get the odds over +2000, like the +2500 at BetMGM, but the prices of +1400 and +1700 offered by bet365 and FanDuel are a little crazy.
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1st-round upset pick: Charleston (13) vs. Alabama (4) (+385 via FanDuel)
Three double-digit seeds will advance to the Round of 32 in the West, but only one of those teams is an underdog in the first round. The Crimson Tide are the highest-scoring team in the nation, but they got a terrible draw with the Cougars in this game.
The Cougars are among the few teams in the country that can score with the Crimson Tide. They average 80.0 points per game, and if their leading scorer, Reyne Smith, gets hot, he’s been known to knock down nine or 10 threes in a single game.
Both teams will score at least 80 points in this game, but the Cougars will make the big shots late. The price for this upset is between +345 and +385 at each of our best sports betting sites, but the spread is dropping fast. Get in as soon as possible at FanDuel.
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Best 1st-round matchup: Nevada (10) vs. Dayton (7)
The Flyers haven’t beaten a single team in this year’s NCAA Tournament. While many use this as an excuse to write them off, it doesn’t matter now that the field is set. The Flyers have a stud down low in Daron Holmes II, who could be a problem for the Wolf Pack.
Holmes will have a great game and keep his Flyers within striking distance the entire time. While the Wolf Pack should win this game, it wouldn’t be shocking if the Flyers pulled this one out. One big thing working in the Wolf Pack’s favor is that this game is being played in Salt Lake City. The proximity to campus may give the Wolf Pack a slight edge.
Who will win the West Region?
Saint Mary’s (5) (+1400 via BetMGM)
Defensively, the Gaels are one of the best teams in the country. They make everyone play their style of basketball, as proven by their 69-60 win over the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the WCC final.
They may struggle with Grand Canyon in round one, but after that, their path opens up. Their style with really bother the winner of Charleston and Alabama. After that, they’ll get the weakest number one seed, or potentially an inconsistent Power 5. And while almost everyone is expecting Arizona to come out of the bottom half of this bracket, there is so much upset potential, that the Gaels could end up facing a double-digit seed in the Elite Eight.
The Gaels rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and 30th in offensive efficiency. At +1400 to win the region via BetMGM, this could be the steal of the tournament.
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