Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s Prediction & March Madness Odds: Gaels Defense Too Much for Lopes

Last updated: March 22, 2024 4:28 PM EDT • 5 min read X Social Google News Link

The favored No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels clash with the No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes in the March Madness Round of 64 tilt as we make our Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s prediction based on the best March Madness odds.
The Saint Mary’s Gaels boast a formidable defense, allowing the third-fewest points per game in the nation, with opponents averaging less than 60 points. Additionally, their offense is highly efficient, ranking 30th in the nation, making them a well-rounded team capable of excelling at both ends of the court.
Conversely, the Grand Canyon Lopes average 78.4 points per game, positioning them in the top 50 nationally in offensive efficiency. However, the challenge lies in whether they can maintain this level of performance against the Gaels' staunch defense and secure advancement to the Round of 32.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here's our best Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary's odds
Grand Canyon (No. 12) vs. Saint Mary's (No. 5) prediction: West Region
Rayshon Harrison Under 13.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via bet365
Tyon Grant-Foster leads the Lopes with 19.8 points per game. He probably won’t hit that number against the Gaels on Friday. However, oddsmakers have already considered the Gaels’ defense when setting his total, which is 2.3 points below his season average.
Grand Canyon's Rayshon Harrison averages 13.7 points per game on a team that averages nearly 80. In a game where they will struggle to score 60, why isn’t Harrison’s total lower than his season average?
Rather than question it, wager on Harrison’s Under. The Gaels are third in the nation in opponent effective field goal percentage and 14th in opponent shooting percentage. In a much slower game than the Lopes are used to, Harrison should struggle to get into double figures.
The -120 odds at bet365, using our odds converter, represent a 54.55% implied probability. A $10 winning bet will pay out $18.33, $8.33 of which is profit.
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Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary's best odds
bet365 (-120)
DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Under 13.5 points | Under 12.5 points | Under 13.5 points | N/A | Under 13.5 points |
-125 | -104 | -125 | N/A | -120 |
DraftKings, bet365, and BetMGM are set at 13.5, with bet365 offering the better price. FanDuel’s under of 12.5 is worth considering, especially since the price is -104. However, for one point lower, it would have been nice to get that price for +100 or better.
The public seems more focused on Grant-Foster, so it’s unlikely Harrison’s line moves much before tip-off.
Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary's spread & Over/Under analysis
The Gaels opened as 4.5-point favorites, and despite 63% of bettors backing the Lopes to cover, the spread has grown to -5.5 at our best sports betting sites.
The total opened at 131.5, and it hasn’t moved since. There shouldn’t be too much movement, considering how efficient the Gaels are on both sides of the floor. Some bettors may back the Over as they look for the Lopes to speed the game up. But after what the Gaels did to the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the WCC title game, most bettors will probably back the Under as tip-off approaches.
Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary's game info
- When: Friday, March 22
- Tip-off: 10:05 p.m. ET
- Where: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena, Spokane, Wash.
- How to watch: truTV
Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary's prediction made Tuesday at 10:31 a.m. ET.
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