Grambling vs. Montana State Prediction & March Madness Odds: Tigers Seek First Win in First Four
We have a pair of exciting First Four battles on Wednesday, and we're offering our top Grambling vs. Montana State prediction based on the best March Madness odds.
Grambling (No. 16 seed) was 20-14 during the regular season, and it finally got revenge against the Texas Southern Tigers in the SWAC Tournament after losing to them for two straight years. That win secured Grambling its first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance.
Meanwhile, No. 16 Montana State was just 13-17 when it entered the final stretch of its regular season before racking up four straight wins. It managed three victories in the Big Sky Conference Tournament, earning its third NCAA Tournament bid in a row.
However, despite the Bobcats' regular appearances in the tournament, Montana State is still looking for its first March Madness win. It owns a 0-5 record in NCAA Tournament games.
Who will come out on top and book their ticket to the main event?
In conjunction with our Colorado vs. Boise State prediction and as part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Grambling vs. Montana State prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Grambling vs. Montana State odds
Grambling (16) vs. Montana State (16) prediction: Midwest Region
Grambling +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM
Montana State is in the NCAA Tournament under first-year head coach Matt Logie after getting scalding hot from 3-point range in March. The Bobcats shot 48.1%, 48.1%, and 40.7% from beyond the arc leading up to the Big Sky Conference Tournament final and overcame a 26.1% shooting effort from the perimeter to beat rival Montana for the third time this season in the championship game.
However, Grambling State is ripe for its first-ever NCAA Tournament victory, mainly because it defends the 3-point line well, allowing the second-lowest 3-point percentage (30.0%) in SWAC play.
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Montana State has a huge weakness inside. It entered its conference final, ranked in the seventh percentile in defensive rim efficiency, per Synergy. In addition, because it regularly bombs away from 3-point range, it is not the most sound team analytically. ShotQuality pegged all of its games in March leading up to the final as losses when it really went 3-1 SU in the four games.
Grambling State may not share the basketball as well as most teams (it ranked last in league play in assists per field goals made), but it uses the isolation game as well as anyone and attacks the rim with reckless abandon.
The Tigers rank in the bottom 30 in Division I in 3-point attempt rate and get 53% of their points (106th in the country) from inside the arc. Their relentless attack of the rim will put pressure on Montana State's weakest link defensively, and they should force enough turnovers (the Tigers rank in the top 60 nationally in forced turnover rate) to lead to a cover or outright win.
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Grambling vs. Montana State best odds
BetMGM (-105)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | BetRivers | bet365 | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +4 | +3.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 | +4 | +4 |
| -112 | -105 | -105 | -107 | -110 | -110 |
We would play Grambling down to +3.5 and love the extra value BetMGM offers at -105. The -105 odds at BetMGM for the +3.5 point spread would pay $19.52 on a $10 wager. FanDuel recently matched BetMGM's price.
Grab the +3.5 odds before any further potential movement in Grambling’s favor, as it is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games, while Montana State went a poor 2-8 ATS in 10 non-conference games.
Grambling vs. Montana State spread & Over/Under analysis
FanDuel and BetMGM were the only two of our top sports betting sites that offered a line as high as Montana State -5.5. However, that line did not last long before those two shops aligned more with our other best sportsbooks. The spread at BetRivers moved in the opposite direction from an opening number of -3, now sitting at -3.5 and -4.
Our best sports betting sites have a total ranging from 134.5 to 135.5. BetMGM were the biggest movers on that front. The Over cashed in 15 of Grambling’s 31 games this season, while Montana State had an O/U record of 17-14.
Grambling vs. Montana State game info
- When: Wednesday, March 20
- Tip-off: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where: UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio
- How to watch: truTV
Grambling-Montana State prediction made Monday at 5:48 a.m. ET.
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e SWAC Tournament. The victory clinched their first-ever NCAA Tournament berth.
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