First Four Expert Picks for Wednesday: American, Xavier Expected to Join March Madness Bracket
The final spot in the March Madness field of 64 will be claimed tonight, and our First Four expert picks for Wednesday are here to help you pick those winning teams and complete your March Madness bracket.
Our March Madness first-round predictions won't be complete until after the conclusion of Xavier vs. Texas. Xavier's laying 3.5 points as the betting favorite.
We've rounded up our experts' best predictions for Wednesday's First Four games ahead of the official start of the NCAA Tournament's first round.
💰 First Four expert picks: Wednesday
Here are our best First Four expert picks for tonight's action. See all of our NCAA Tournament picks and use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any same-game parlay:
🎯 Against the spread pick: American -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Mount St. Mary’s ⭐⭐⭐ ❌
🎯 Against the spread pick: Xavier -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Texas ⭐⭐⭐⭐
👉 Want more picks? Check out our latest college basketball picks and the rest of our March Madness first-round predictions.
👉 Want AI-driven bracket insights? Check out our full March Madness AI bracket predictions with score predictions for every game.
🏆 Best Xavier vs. Texas prediction
Xavier vs. Texas odds:
✅ Xavier to cover the spread: -2.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Our Xavier vs. Texas prediction was made by Shane Jackson.
If you want to take Xavier’s moneyline value (-150 at FanDuel), that would be a five-star prediction. Still, I’m comfortable laying the points with Sean Miller’s squad against a Texas team that doesn’t deserve to be here and plays a defensive style that benefits the Musketeers.
Xavier shreds teams that play drop coverage, ranking in the 90th percentile in mid-range efficiency. The Musketeers are also an elite free-throw team, ranking eighth in the nation with a 79.4% clip at the charity stripe. That matters because Texas’ defense ranks 319th in free-throw rate.
I’m interested in backing Xavier to make a second-weekend run in this year’s tourney, starting with a win over Texas on tonight.
📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)
👀 Xavier vs. Texas betting insights
Betting insights via BetMGM on straight bets only.
Against the spread:
- Opening spread: Xavier -1.5 | Current spread: Xavier -1.5
- Bets: 552% on Xavier | 45% on Texas
- Handle: 76% on Xavier | 24% on Texas
Over/Under:
- Opening total: 149.5 | Current total: 151.5
- Bets: 64% on Over | 36% on Under
- Handle: 70% on Over | 30% on Under
Moneyline:
- Opening moneyline: Xavier -130 | Texas +110
- Current moneyline: Xavier -165 | Texas +135
- Bets: 26% on Xavier | Texas 74%
- Handle: 39% on Xavier | 61% on Texas
🔮 First Four expert picks
- Mount St. Mary's vs. American prediction
- Xavier vs. Texas prediction
- March Madness picks and predictions: Which First Four teams have best odds to reach second round?
- Which March Madness First Four teams have best Final Four odds?
- March Madness first-round predictions
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
| March Madness odds | March Madness MVP odds |
| Women's March Madness odds | March Madness MVP predictions |
| Final Four odds | March Madness prop bets |
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