Early March Madness Prediction 2026: Projected Top Seeds and Best Value Bets

As the NFL season comes to an end and attention turns to the next big sporting event, the NCAA Tournament, I'm breaking down my early March Madness prediction and highlighting why there are only a handful of teams worth considering.

Since NCAA Tournament expansion in 1985, 35 of 40 March Madness champions have been a top-three seed, and the only program to win it all since 1998 as non-top three seed has been UConn (2014, 2023). So if you're betting on March Madness, target the usual suspects.

🏀 March Madness prediction 2026: Projected No. 1-3 seeds

See the latest college basketball odds from our best March Madness betting sites.

*NCAA Tournament seed projections via Bracket Matrix.

💰 March Madness prediction: Best bets & long shots

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Best bet (No. 1 seed): Duke (+700)

Even coming off a last-second loss on the road to North Carolina, Duke is my best bet to win the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils are one of three teams ranked in the top eight in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency (all three top the March Madness odds), and they have the best player in the country.

Leading the Wooden Award odds is Blue Devils freshman Cameron Boozer, who's arguably the most consistent player in the country. The son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer is the only player in the country leading his conference (ACC) in both PPG (23.3) and RPG (10.0).

But what makes Jon Scheyer's team so deadly is its versatility. Alongside Boozer, it has one of the most explosive guards in the sport (Isaiah Evans), a hulking rim protector (Patrick Ngongba), a pair of steady veterans with defensive chops (Caleb Foster, Maliq Brown), and three talented freshman guards (Cayden Boozer, Dame Sarr, Nikolas Khamenia).

In a year dominated by a historically dominant freshman class, I'm taking the best of the bunch to lead Duke to its first NCAA Tournament title in a decade.

One seeds have won March Madness 65% of the time since 1985, including seven of the last eight.

Longer shot (No. 2/3 seed): Kansas (+2000)

My approach when it comes to betting on a non-projected No. 1 seed this far out is to back the team that's been surging over the second half of the season. To me, that's Kansas, and it's pretty clear why nobody is going to want to play the Jayhawks in March.

When you watch Kansas, it doesn't take long to pick out which player on the court is the projected No. 1 pick in the NBA draft. Darryn Peterson is so clearly the most gifted basketball player in the country, and after missing time and playing on a minutes restriction, Bill Self now seems content to lean on his star.

Peterson has played in just 13 games this season and has played more than 28 minutes just six times. But since the start of January, he's played in nine of Kansas' 10 games, including 30-plus minutes in five of them. 

During that stretch, Kansas has taken down three ranked teams (Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech), with Peterson averaging 21.1 PPG in Big 12 play. His offense will be key to a Kansas title run, with the Jayhawks having an elite defense (No. 7 in adjusted efficiency) thanks to its length.

With Peterson healthy and surrounded by players like Flory Bidunga, Melvin Council Jr., Tre White, and Bryson Tiller, the Jayhawks could become the 10th No. 2/No. 3 seed to win March Madness since 1986.

Half-court heave (non-top-3 seed): Vanderbilt (+8000)

Betting on a non-projected top three seed to win the NCAA Tournament is bad business. The only time it has happened this century is when UConn turned into a different team down the stretch in 2014 as a No. 7 seed and 2023 as a No. 4 seed.

Outside of those two UConn runs, the only other non-top-three seeds since tournament expansion to win it all were 1997 Arizona (No. 4), 1988 Kansas (No. 6), and 1985 Villanova (No. 8). And while it's unlikely to happen again this season, it is possible.

One team I like as a dark horse is Vanderbilt, a projected No. 4 seed. The Commodores started the season 16-0 and have a proven winner in head coach Mark Byington. Byington led the team to the NCAA Tournament in his first season at the helm last year, and in 2023-24, he went 32-4 at James Madison, with a win over Wisconsin in March Madness. 

He has Vandy ranked top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and has an All-SEC-caliber guard in sophomore Tyler Tanner, who leads a senior-heavy rotation.

With Tanner's explosive scoring and the veteran presence of players like Tyler Nickel and Duke Miles, maybe, just maybe, the Commodores can make history.