College Basketball Best Bets: Wednesday's Predictions, Player Props & ATS Picks
Wednesday’s college basketball action is highlighted by intriguing non-conference matchups, as the Big 12-Big East Battle and SEC/ACC Men’s Challenge are responsible for many of the 14 AP Top 25 teams in action.
- UConn dropped from No. 2 to No. 25 after going 0-3 at the Maui Invitational
- Marquette-Iowa State and Auburn-Duke are the two AP top-10 matchups on Wednesday’s slate
- No. 1 Kansas plays its first true road game at Creighton
Our college basketball best bets for Wednesday involve player props on two Wooden Award candidates, and backs two favorites against Power Conference teams.
Best college basketball player props & ATS predictions for Wednesday
College basketball odds subject to change. Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Mark Sears Over 2.5 3-pointers vs. North Carolina (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Johni Broome Under 20.5 points vs. Duke (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Florida -15.5 (-115 via Caesars) vs. Virginia ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Oregon -5.5 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. USC ⭐⭐
Wednesday's college basketball odds & schedule
(Odds via BetMGM)
- Baylor (+2.5) vs. UConn (-2.5), 6:30 p.m. ET
- Alabama (+2.5) vs. North Carolina (-2.5), 7:15 p.m. ET
- Virginia (+16.5) vs. Florida (-16.5), 7:15 p.m. ET
- Marquette (+5.5) vs. Iowa State (-5.5), 8:00 p.m. ET
- Kansas (-4.5) vs. Creighton (+4.5), 8:30 p.m. ET
- Auburn (+2.5) vs. Duke (-2.5), 9:15 p.m. ET
- Pittsburgh (+5.5) vs. Mississippi State (-5.5), 9:15 p.m. ET
- Oregon (-5.5) vs. USC (+5.5), 10:30 p.m. ET
College basketball props for Wednesday
College basketball picks odds subject to change. Our NEW player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Mark Sears Over 2.5 3-pointers ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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It may seem blasphemous to back a player who is shooting 28.8% from 3-point range and who is coming off a 1-for-11 performance from beyond the arc with a five-star play.
I am banking on positive regression from the Wooden Award odds candidate, as Sears has shot better than 40% from the perimeter in two other seasons.
He is not bashful about getting 3-point attempts up, with 28 total attempts over the previous three games.
Sears plays in an Alabama offense that entered its last game ranked in the 95th percentile in catch-and-shoot rate and the 96th percentile in unguarded rate, per Synergy.
With this Alabama-UNC game having an O/U of 175.5 points, I am backing Sears to do his part and drain at least three 3-pointers. The Over is juiced as high as -125 at Caesars, carrying a 55.56% implied probability.
Johni Broome Under 20.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -130 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.52%
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Duke’s elite defense does an outstanding job walling off the paint, as it ranks 14th in Haslametrics’ near-proximity field goal percentage.
The Blue Devils limited Kentucky’s Amari Williams to 3-for-12 shooting and Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson to 3-for-9 inside the arc.
In fact, Dickinson’s 11 points were tied for his second-lowest output of the season, and was one of three games he attempted two or fewer free throws.
That bodes well for Duke’s ability to limit Broome, who has scored 20-plus points in five of his last six games. Broome has five consecutive double-doubles, but the Blue Devils will make him rebound the basketball if he is to reach a sixth straight.
The slightly better number is at FanDuel, as Caesars charges -114 in juice to back the Under of 19.5 points.
College basketball game predictions for Wednesday
Florida to cover the spread (-15.5) vs. Virginia ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Even though Tony Bennett stepped away from the Virginia program weeks before the season started, the Cavaliers still play at the same snail-like pace they were known for under their former head coach.
Led by Ron Sanchez, Virginia ranks 363rd out of 364 Division I teams in terms of adjusted tempo.
The Cavaliers do record an assist on 65.2% of their made field goals (14th-highest in the country), but they do not make many of their shot attempts, so they rank 176th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Virginia’s methodical approach makes it difficult for it to make up deficits when it falls behind early, which is what happened in 22 and 25-point losses to Tennessee and St. John’s.
Florida is 5-3 ATS this season and has covered both of its games on extended rest (four or more days off). Conversely, Virginia is 0-3 ATS with four or more days to prepare, and its first true road test in “The Swamp” will be too much to handle.
This spread is as high as -16.5 (-110) at FanDuel, so I am taking advantage of the one-point better value at Caesars, even if it requires paying up slightly at -115 odds.
Oregon (-5.5) vs. USC ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Entering Tuesday, Oregon was one of eight teams at 8-0 or better. But one can argue it has the most impressive resume of all those teams, beating Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama consecutively to win the Players Era Festival championship.
Opponents get virtually nothing against the Ducks in transition, as Oregon entered its last game against Alabama ranked in the 97th percentile in transition defense efficiency and the 37th percentile in allowing transition, per Synergy.
Oregon also limits catch-and-shoot opportunities, entering its last game ranked in the seventh percentile of catch-and-shoot rate allowed.
This is a four-star play, as USC has lost its last two games to Saint Mary’s and New Mexico by a combined 45 points, as its defense has been a sieve, ranking 236th or worse in both 2-point and 3-point percentage allowed.
This line is as high as -6.5 at FanDuel, and DraftKings is one of the only top sports betting sites charging the standard -110 juice at a line of -5.5.
March Madness betting odds pages
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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