Free College Basketball Picks: NCAAB Predictions & Best Bets

The Golden Hurricane’s 24 games scoring 80-plus points are a school record, and they shattered their previous record of 288 made 3-pointers (set in 2000-01) by making 359 threes this season. Thus, Riley should go Over this total for the fourth straight time against the Shockers.

Tulsa’s starting five has the third-best plus-minus in the country. I am disregarding its 13-point loss to the Shockers in the conference tournament, as it was coming off a triple-overtime game while Wichita State had a bye.

Nothing seemingly can stop New Mexico’s offense at the moment, and a brutal schedule should catch up to Saint Joseph’s. 

Hall is tied for fourth all-time among D-I freshmen with 113 3-pointers, trailing only Detroit’s Antoine Davis, Davidson’s Stephen Curry, and Oklahoma’s Trae Young. 

On the season, Dayton is 35th overall in adjusted defensive efficiency (100.3), per Bart Torvik, and is 30th since Feb. 1 (98.3). The Flyers lead the nation in free-throw rate on the year, and, since Feb. 1, rank as a top-60 team in 3-point shooting (37.8%). Illinois State hasn't let opponents get to the stripe a lot, but the perimeter defense has struggled lately, ranking 228th (35.1%) through our sample, and I like Dayton to roll here.

Dayton’s offense is humming, with back-to-back 80-point performances in road wins after scoring 80-plus points just once since Dec. 16. Meanwhile, the Redbirds entered their last game as a top-70 defense over the whole season, but barely cracked the top 200 defensively against KenPom top-100 competition.

The Wolf Pack are the 31st-best defensive rebounding team in the country, and that should negate Auburn’s strength as a top-20 offensive rebounding team.

Purdue shot 58% from 3-point range over its first two NCAA Tournament wins. That’s the fourth-best shooting mark through two games in nearly 20 years of March Madness, and it was the Boilermakers’ best two-game stretch of 3-point shooting all season. 

Cluff is D-I’s fifth-best offensive rebounder with a 17.7% offensive rebounding rate. And while he ranks 118th among all players in defensive rebounding rate, he had the 11th-best rate in that metric in Big Ten play.

Texas was zipping the ball around the perimeter against Gonzaga, racking up 20 assists on 31 made field goals. In that game, Swain’s six assists were double that of any other Longhorns player.

If Purdue is having difficulty getting Fletcher Loyer going from 3-point range (he was shooting 47% from beyond the arc since the start of February entering the Round of 32), the Boilermakers’ offensive attack should feature plenty of Braden Smith feeding Trey Kaufman-Renn on short pick-and-rolls.

Purdue is D-I’s most efficient offense and figures to have several advantages over a Longhorns defense that allowed 88.8 points per game in losses during a late-season 1-5 stretch.

Iowa has already beaten Nebraska this season, and in that game, Iowa outrebounded Nebraska 37-24. Nebraska ranks 19th in opponent field goal percentage, but the Hawkeyes already shot 48% from the field against the Cornhuskers earlier this season.

Nebraska has done a solid job of limiting Bennett Stirtz with its hedge-screen coverage. Stirtz has dished five total assists in two meetings, finishing Under this combo line twice. 

A Sweet 16 matchup for the sickos. I'm banking on a grind-it-out defensive battle, especially in the first half. In the two regular-season meetings between Iowa and Nebraska, there were 117 total points scored in the first half.

Arkansas All-SEC Defensive Team player Billy Richmond has the length at 6-foot-6 to bother Burries on the perimeter, which is important considering Burries’ 39.2% 3-point percentage is second-highest among all five Wildcats who average in double figures.

Brazile has averaged 14.5 points while shooting 55.1% from the field and 38.6% from 3-point range in wins this season. While I’m not calling for a Razorbacks upset, I do expect Brazile to continue his hot 7-for-16 shooting from the perimeter over the last three games. 

The Wildcats have allowed 80 or fewer points in 12 consecutive games. The Razorbacks have scored 80 or fewer points in seven games this season, and Darius Acuff Jr. has not topped six assists in any of those games (he is averaging 4.6 assists per game in that span).

Arkansas cannot expect to score much in transition or at the rim, as Arizona ranks in the 98th and 99th percentile in defensive efficiency metrics in those two areas, respectively. Instead, the Razorbacks can pick-and-roll the Wildcats to death while spacing the floor for its elite backcourt tandem.

While fellow backcourt mate Darius Acuff Jr. has shined, Meleek Thomas has quietly averaged 20 points in the two NCAA Tournament wins. He is shooting 40% from beyond the arc, and an efficient 59% from 2-point range.

Illinois is averaging 13.4 offensive rebounds per game, and the Fighting Illini should grab plenty against a Houston team that ranks 184th in opponent offensive rebounds allowed. This will create more 3-point opportunities for an Illinois team that shoots 50.4% of its shots from outside the arc.

Freshman forward David Mirkovic has an offensive rebound rate of 10.4% and a defensive rebound rate of 20%. He's averaging 7.9 rebounds per game this year.

Nearly every projection system has Houston winning by just one, suggesting the Cougars are getting too much of a cushion for playing in their home city. Illinois' 39.2% offensive rebound rate could prove to be the difference in the game.

St. John's scored just 67 points against a Kansas team that plays a faster pace at a lower rate of defensive acumen than what the Red Storm will see against duke.

With such a low team total for St. John's (67.5), a scoring line above Ejiofor's season average (16.3 PPG) feels like a sturdy Under against Duke's No. 1 defensive rating in the nation.

Only 21 teams sit below St. John's (12-23 and Duke (12-24) in the rate of cashing Overs this season. Both possess a defensive rating among the nation's top 10, with Duke at No. 1 in the country.

Michigan ranks second in adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom, and I expect the Wolverines to slow down the Alabama offense. Even if they struggle at times defensively, the Michigan offense will take advantage of a defense that has struggled a lot this year, ranking just 60th in adjusted defensive rating.

Michigan is allowing just 69.6 points per game. The Wolverines rank third in shooting defense, and they're allowing opponents to make just 30.8% of their 3-pointers, which is terrible news for an Alabama offense that averages 35.6 3-point attempts per game.

Alabama is allowing 39.7 rebounds per game, which is the eighth-most in the country. 54% of Alabama's shot attempts are 3-pointers, so I expect Cadeau to grab a lot of long rebounds and go Over his season average of 2.6.

Thought UConn's defense is effective at limiting assist totals, Fears Jr. has averaged 13.3 assists per game over his last three contests.

With UConn's adjusted tempo at 322nd and Michigan State's at 243rd, combined with two teams who boast stronger defensive efficiencies than offensive ones, I like a rock fight here.

UConn has been favored in every game it has played this season, but the Huskies are just 14-22 ATS (38.8%) on the season. Michigan State is 3-2-1 ATS as an underdog.

Tennessee is second in the country in offensive rebounds per game, and the Volunteers have the 14th-ranked defense according to KenPom. Iowa State's Joshua Jefferson is not confirmed active for this game, and even if he plays, the Cyclones' second-leading scorer will probably see limited minutes.

These two teams play very slowly, with Iowa State ranking 204th in adjusted tempo and Tennessee ranking 306th. Tennessee also ranks in the top 30 in opponent field goal and 3-point percentage, while Iowa State, which averages 9.1 steals per game, will disrupt Tennessee's offensive flow.

Iowa State loves to shoot threes, averaging 38.7% from deep. However, Tennessee ranks 23rd in 3-point defense and will hold Iowa State well below its season average, keeping this game close throughout.

Tennessee has a great 3-point defense, but Momcilovic is shooting 49.3% from deep, and he's averaging 3.7 makes and 7.6 attempts per game. He went 8-014 against Arizona earlier this season, and he's made at least four 3-pointers in 17 of his 36 games.